After years of delay, and massive cost over-runs, the James Webb space telescope was launched on Christmas Day. It will need to perform complex operations in space.
The first challenge this week is unfurling a heat shield the size of a tennis court. The mirror must be assembled from 18 pieces of the launching rocket. Astronomers are anxious for several months that will last before all necessary tests and manoevres are completed because there is much that can go wrong.
The mirror of the Hubble Space Telescope was poorly aligned after it was launched. The astronauts went on a rescue mission to make adjustments and later visited to upgrade the instruments.
There is no chance of a repair mission for the JWST, which is vastly more elaborate. The Hubble telescope was accessible, but the JWST will be several times farther away than the moon. Some might argue that we need to have more ambitious plans for human spaceflight, such as building large structures in deep space, returning to the moon, and eventually reaching Mars. I don't agree with this view. The practical and scientific case for human spaceflight is weakened by the improvement of miniaturisation. Its main purpose is to be an adventure and an expensive sport that should be left to billionaires and private sponsors.
Space technology is used for communication, environmental monitoring, satnav and so forth. We rely on it every day. Pictures of varied and distinctive worlds have been beamed back by drones. Our knowledge of the universe has been greatly improved by telescopes in space.
The whole solar system will be explored by flotillas of miniaturised probes, which are far more advanced than the ones used by Nasa. This was launched 20 years ago. Think about how much better we could be. In the future, huge, gossamer-thin mirrors or solar energy collectors will be assembled in space using raw materials mined from the moon or asteroids. They could repair the craft in the far away future. The techniques are evolving fast. The vehicle sent to Mars a decade ago trundled slowly across a crater, if it encountered a rock, it needed instructions from Earth about how to divert its path. Perseverance, which landed on Mars last February, has enough intelligence to find its way around obstacles. In another decade, such a probe will have the ability to identify and explore geological formations.
The programme for human spaceflight has been impeded by public and political pressure into being risk-averse. The shuttle failed in 135 launches. The 2% level of risk would be accepted by thrill-seekers. The shuttle had been promoted as safe. Each failure caused a national trauma and was followed by a hiatus while costly efforts were made to reduce the risk. Because of the safety culture, Nasa will face political obstacles in achieving grand goals.
It is dangerous to think that space can be used to escape Earth's problems. We have to solve them here.
Private enterprise ventures such as Blue Origin and the rest can cut costs and tolerate higher risks than a western government could, because they bring a Silicon Valley culture into a domain long dominated by Nasa and a few aerospace conglomerates. These ventures should front manned missions because of private funds and sponsorship. The phrase should not be used. It lulls people into believing that they are not at risk. Accidents will be as traumatic as those of the space shuttle if that is the perception. These exploits should be sold as dangerous sports.
Don't expect mass emigration from Earth. I don't agree with Musk and with Stephen Hawking. It is dangerous to think that space is an escape from its problems. We have to solve them here. Mars is terraforming compared to climate change. The environment in our solar system is not as good as the one in the South Pole or the top of Everest. Ordinary, risk-averse people don't have "Planet B". Courageous thrill-seekers may establish bases outside of the Earth. Musk wants to die on Mars, but not on impact. We should cheer for these space explorers. This is why. They will have a compelling incentive to redesign themselves because they will be ill-adapted to Martian conditions. They will use the super-powerful genetic and cyborg technologies. One hopes that these techniques will be restrained on Earth, but not on Mars. Good luck to them in adapting their offspring to alien environments. This could be the first step towards a new species.
The post-human era will be the result of spacefaring explorers who will evolve into a new species within a few centuries. This evolution is thousands of times faster than Darwinian selection.
They won't need an atmosphere if they transition from blood to intelligence. They prefer zero-g for large artifacts. It is in deep space, not on Earth or Mars, that non-biological brainpower may develop.
6 billion years is how long the sun will last before running out of fuel. The expanding universe will continue for a long time. Even if intelligent life had originated only on the Earth, it could jump-start a diaspora of more complex intelligence by using self-reproduction machines, sending DNA, or instructions for 3D printers. Interstellar voyages wouldn't hold terrors for near-immortals. There is plenty of time left.
Martin is an astronomer.
