The year began well for Joe Biden. The Democratic party regained control of the Senate through two special elections in Georgia, and the start of the vaccine roll, which coincides with the presidency of Biden. He looked set to draw a line under the behavior of the outgoing president.
Biden ends in difficulty. After his first year in office, his approval rating is the second-lowest. Democrats are likely to lose control of Capitol Hill in next year's elections. The backlash against what is seen as leftwing over-reach could cause lasting damage to its brand. Biden was campaigning on the theme of not being Trump. Democrats may have over-interpreted their 2020 mandate as a licence to go further. Democrats are looking divided as Trump makes an ominous comeback.
The newspaper supports the fiscalStimulus package, but it is clear that Biden should have spent less and been more targeted. It was an overcorrection after the insufficient stimulation efforts following the 2008 financial crisis.
That is one reason why the Federal Reserve is signalling it will tighten monetary policy in 2022, not the following year. The monthly asset purchases will be phased out by March. The policy mix is still not ideal. The Omicron variant means that the US now faces the spectre of rising inflation and falling growth, not 1970s-style stagflation, but still a big hit to middle-class pocket books.
Biden finishes the year frustrated. He put his chips on passing a bill that included tax relief for property owners in high-tax Democratic-run states, as well as a broad range of priorities on parental leave, clean energy, child support and tax relief for property owners in high-tax Democratic-run states.
Some of the measures were not done in a timely manner. America is the only developed country that does not allow statutory parental and sick leave. The relief on the state and local tax deduction was seen as support for the middle classes but was actually a tax break for the wealthy. Democrats failed to build a case for the bill that was poorly assembled. Biden would be lucky to get a slimmed down version of the package.
The legislative year was not a waste. The infrastructure bill will help America. It is unlikely to have much of an effect on the Democratic midterm prospects.
The party is not helping itself by doubling down on a form of cultural liberalism that seems tailor-made to appeal to centrists. Hispanic voters are moving away. Recent polls show that Republicans and Democrats are in a close race. Hispanics are referred to as "Latinx" in a nod to the non-binary wing of the progressive movement. Only 2% of Hispanics approve of the term.
Biden will need to think long and hard about the party's brand if Democrats are to prevent a return of Trump. Is it an elite outfit that wants to change America's cultural manners? Is it a representation of the ordinary middle classes of all races and creeds? Common sense dictates the latter. It is what Biden was campaigning on. The theme that worked so well against Trump in 2020 must be returned to.
