Climate change: Storm clouds gather after COP26

By Matt McGrath.
The environment correspondent.

The image is from the same source.

Is the progress made at the Glasgow climate summit in jeopardy because of the challenges that are to come?

Climate change was a big deal in 2011.

The past year has seen a host of extreme, destructive events and unprecedented political engagement on the issue, culminated in the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.

Progress was made and the meeting's main thrust was towards more rapid action on a whole host of measures to curb emissions.

There are growing concerns that this momentum may not last.

The US is the most grievous blow.

The ability of the US to meet the tough climate targets that the White House has committed to is at risk if President Biden fails to get his act through Congress.

It would affect the unified approach to climate change displayed by world leaders.

"Anything that Biden pledged, led to this relatively good atmosphere and a sense of momentum in Glasgow," said Dr.Joanna Depledge, a fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance.

He needs to get the bill through Congress. It is now looking dicey. He can do some things with executive orders, but they aren't the kind of legislation we're looking for.

The situation to us is critical.

The world will be affected by the despair among many in the US over the possible failure of President Biden's bill. This will be the case in China, a country smarting from the perception that it flexed its political muscle in Glasgow to get its way. Biden's political difficulties with the bill are seen as more evidence that the West is declining.

The image is from the same source.

The image caption is.

The talks went deep into overtime and Alok was feeling the emotional burden.

"I am worried that the climate agenda will be dominated by tension between the US and China in 2022," said Li Shuo, from the environmental group.

He is worried that the introduction of carbon taxes on imported goods into Europe could make Beijing feel more frustrated.

The Chinese side will see how other people are treated and will make a decision on whether the game is fair or just about the environment. I am expecting a more turbulent year. The climate agenda was helped by geopolitics in the years before the Paris agreement. What lies ahead may be different.

Next year's COP is being held in Egypt, and the one after that in the United Arab Emirates.

"Neither of these countries could be described as climate leaders," said Prof J Timmons Roberts from Brown University. There are some issues that may get more traction, but on the issue of emissions reductions, it is not the best side.

Some countries may ignore aspects of the Glasgow climate pact that they don't like.

The request for all countries to revisit and strengthen their national climate pledges was one of the key measures in the deal.

Australia and New Zealand are two of the countries that say they won't update their plans despite agreeing to this. James Shaw, New Zealand's climate minister, told national media that the provision only applied to large emitters like India, China, Russia and Brazil, which hadn't significantly strengthened their plans in time for Glasgow.

The image is from Wisde de We.

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A deal to help South Africa away from coal could be a model for others.

There are some positive developments that could make a difference to the general mood around climate change.

The UK, EU, US, Germany and France agreed to pay $8.5 billion to help South Africa abandon coal. Two new deals to help India and Indonesia move away from the most carbon-intensive energy source are in the works, according to those close to the negotiations.

If they happen, they would represent a huge step away from fossil fuels. The commitment to doubling adaptation finance made by richer countries will be key to progress in 2022, say officials.

The UK's presidency will continue until next November when Egypt takes over.

The agreements secured in Glasgow on coal, finance and cars will start to be implemented if the President of COP26, Alok Sharma, pushes forward over the coming months.

The background of Mr. Sharma as an auditor will help make sure there's no slippage over the integrity of the commitments made.

The Glasgow climate pact was delivered after the UK spent the last two years working with countries to build trust. We will continue to make sure that countries keep their promises, re-visit their emissions reductions targets, get finance flowing, and deliver on the many commitments made during the two weeks of the summit.

Germany will chair the G7 group of countries. Climate will remain high on the international diplomatic agenda because the co- leader of the German Green party is now the country's foreign minister.

Middle income countries have a great chance to lock in significant action to limit emissions because of infrastructure investment after the Covid pandemic.

The price of carbon permits in Europe and the UK have increased in recent weeks, as a result of the final agreement on the rules for carbon markets.

A sustained high carbon price could speed up the transition to cleaner sources of energy.

Global events could see all the potential positives quickly.

There could be delays in progress on climate change because of disputes between Russia and Ukraine, China's withdrawal from the UN, and a drubbing for the Democrats in mid-term elections in the US.

It would be a disaster if the efforts to keep the rise in global temperatures under 1.5C were to be stopped right now.

"Incremental steps are a death sentence right now," said Prof Roberts.

The image is from SOPA Images.

The image caption is.

Floods in Malaysia at the end of the year had a big impact on people and property.

The climate negotiations process is very unpredictable, and even when things seem to be at their worst, countries are often able to make compromises to keep things moving forward.

The UK can be a role model for others, as the president of the COP26 says.

The world's shared commitment to taking real climate action was demonstrated when the world left COP26 with the Glasgow climate pact.

The world needs to act at a much faster pace if we are to have any chance of success.

I believe we will reach a net zero world, and the UK is leading the way through our own actions such as rapidly expanding our renewables sector and working to eliminate the use of coal from our electricity generation in 2024, the question is whether that will be fast enough to avoid the worst effects of