A new laboratory study shows that people who have recovered from an Omicron coronaviruses variant may be able to fight off Delta variant infections.
If more experiments confirm the findings, they could suggest a less dire future for the Pandemic. In the short term, Omicron is expected to create a surge of cases that will put a massive strain on economies and health care systems around the world. According to new research, an Omicron-dominated world might experience fewer hospitalizations and deaths than one in which Delta continues to rage.
Alex Sigal, a researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa, said that Omicron is likely to push Delta out. We are looking at something we can live with more easily and that will disrupt us less than the previous versions.
The study was posted on the institute website. It has not been published yet.
The results of the South African experiment were sound according to independent scientists. The findings were consistent with what is happening in England, according to Carl Pearson, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
He said that the Delta trend would change to declining when Omicron arrived.
The epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health said he was observing the same pattern in Connecticut. He said that Omicron was rising while Delta cases were falling. This suggests that Omicron is outcompeting Delta for vulnerable individuals, leaving them less susceptible to Delta in the aftermath and driving down Delta cases.
Two years ago, when people began getting coronaviruses, they produced immune cells that could protect them. In the months that followed, it was very rare for a person to be re-infected.
New coronaviruses emerged in late 2020. Alpha, for example, had a way of spreading rapidly. They were able to evade the antibodies even if they were produced during a prior infection or in response to a Covid-19 vaccine.
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Alex Sigal, of the Africa Health Research Institute, said that pushing Delta out might be a good thing.
In the summer of 2021, Delta came to prominence due to its ability to spread and evade the immune system. The effectiveness of the vaccine against Delta was not as high as it had been earlier in the year.
When Omicron emerged, it spread quickly. Researchers suspected that it had two sources. It was possible to transmit quickly by replicating in large numbers or by spreading more easily from one person to the next. Omicron was able to cause illness to people who had gotten sick with earlier versions.
A number of research groups, including Dr. Sigal's team, have confirmed Omicron's ability to dodge antibodies from vaccines. They mixed blood from people who had recovered from Covid with blood from people who had not.
The antibodies that were very potent against Delta did a poor job against Omicron. This helped to explain why so many people were coming down with bouts of Omicron, even though they were milder than Delta.
The same experiment was done on people who had recovered from Omicron infections. South Africa has just gone through a huge spike in Omicron cases, but Dr. Sigal and his colleagues have so far only been able to study 13 patients.
He said that it was difficult because of the holiday period. Nobody really wants to be part of a study.
Six patients were not vaccine free. The scientists didn't know which volunteers had been previously exposed to other Covid strains. It is likely that most of the volunteers have not been exposed to Omicron for the first time.
The researchers found that the patients had high levels of antibodies against Omicron. The antibodies proved to be effective against Delta.
The team's study from earlier this month showed that the converse was not true, and that antibodies produced after a Delta infection offered little protection against Omicron.
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The people are waiting to get the vaccine. Delta came to prominence this summer due to the fact that it was easier to spread and better able to evade the immune system.
Dr. Sigal thought that Omicron would leave people with immunity not just to itself, but to Delta as well. That would mean that people who get Delta will have less chances to spread it to others. People who have recovered from Delta will be at risk for Omicron. Delta could be doomed by that competitive edge.
There is a lot of speculation about the future health of billions of people based on only 13 volunteers. Dr. Sigal can't say what accounts for the benefit Omicron provides against Delta. It is possible that the antibodies it produces act more broadly against other variants as well.
It is possible that the Omicron infections roused the existing immunity in volunteers. If that is the case, then it will be up to the CDC to decide what to do with unvaccinated people who get Omicron for the first time.
Even if Delta is wiped out by Omicron, that doesn't mean that Omicron will rule for the rest of time. Natural selection may favor the creation of a new variant that can evade immunity once people gain it.
Dr. Pearson could see three different futures depending on the particulars of the coronaviruses.
Covid mimics the flu with one seasonal variant pushing out the previous one year after year.
People get sick from one of the different versions of Covid, which is why it's called Covid mimics Dengue.
One variant winning out and becoming an easily prevented pathogen is the most desirable. That is the least likely scenario, according to Dr. Pearson.
He said that it could be that it is going to a place where it becomes a childhood disease like measles. That is also possible.
