The Philippine President met with the Chinese President in Beijing.
The next Philippine leader should be bolder in challenging Beijing, as the Beijing-friendly postures of the current president have not tamed China's aggressiveness in the South China Sea.
The Philippines will hold general elections in May to vote for a new president as the term of incumbent president, Rodrigo Duterte, comes to an end. The Philippines and China have a territorial dispute in the South China Sea, but the Philippines has sought closer ties with Beijing.
The Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries have been involved in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
China claims the entire waterway. In the last few years, China has built artificial islands in the sea, while Chinese fishing fleets and maritime militia vessels swarmed areas that are internationally recognized as belonging to other countries.
The most favorable scenario for the Philippines would be a change in the mindset of the elected leader in May 2022, according to the head of the strategic intelligence practice at Amador Research Services.
The next Philippine president should be more assertive in challenging China's claims, according to a December report by the Asia Society Policy Institute.
CNBC reached out to the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines, as well as the Chinese embassies in Singapore and the Philippines, for comment on the report. At the time of publication, no one replied.
According to a December report by the International Crisis Group, China's promised infrastructure investments to the Philippines have fallen short of expectations, while tensions between Manila and Beijing are rising again in the South China Sea.
The report said that many in the Philippines are skeptical of rapprochement with China if it entails giving up claims to various disputed maritime features.
According to the Asia Society Policy Institute report, the South China Sea contributes 27% of the Philippines' total fisheries production. A group of scientists warn that Chinese activities in the disputed waters could hurt the fishing industry.
Tensions with China have hampered Philippine oil exploration efforts.
The country's ability to achieve energy security as its main source of natural gas for electricity supply is at risk.
The presence of Chinese vessels in parts of the South China Sea that were internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines has been protested by some in the government.
The Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. directed an aggressive message to Beijing as the two countries clashed over the South China Sea. Locsin Jr. said that China was straining its friendship with the Philippines.
The South China Sea issues have become public issues in the Philippines due to China's growing aggressiveness and the fact that the Philippines has a relationship with Beijing.
Some analysts think that the public will be against the Philippine presidential candidates that appear to be pro-China.
Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, filed his candidacy for the presidency of the Philippines in October of 2021.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, was the leader of the latest opinion poll. In a survey conducted in December, Marcos Jr. was picked as the presidential candidate by over 50% of respondents.
Marcos Jr. would seek more balanced ties with the U.S. and China if he were elected, according to a report.
The South China Sea is one of the issues in the competition between the U.S. and China. China has been accused of "unlawful" claims and "bully" in the sea by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
The Philippines is in a tough position. China is the Southeast Asian country's largest neighbor and top economic partner.
The International Crisis Group said that a crucial question remains whether the Philippines can navigate between China and the U.S. without an armed confrontation.
Manila is hedging well. Beijing wants to assert its regional ambitions and Washington is against it.
The Philippines can't resolve the South China Sea dispute on its own, according to a think tank. The country should work with its neighbors to manage their territorial disputes.
The International Crisis Group said that the Philippines should push for a code of conduct between Southeast Asian countries and China to manage maritime tensions, while keeping a diplomatic channel with Beijing open to reduce misunderstandings.
None of these steps will resolve the maritime dispute, but they could help keep the risk low that incidents at sea will escalate toward conflict.
