Tensions about scientific modelling have risen in the past week. The strained exchanges were caused by projections cited by the UK and devolved governments. Modelling is important because it tells us.
Society can't just wait for things to happen, what are the range of possible outcomes based on what we know? We can save lives by being prepared for a range of things. As information increases, the model improves and the range of outcomes narrows.
Modelling told us that hospitalisations per 1,000 infections is important to outcomes, so its measurement was prioritised. Modelling can show that it is too late. It tells when decisions matter.
Chris Whitty is a model of compassion and humility. Leon Neal is pictured.
In a world of limited resources, the government may have to choose between two measures. What happens when 10% of ambulance drivers are ill? We will not send home 10% just to document the consequences.
The question is what if. Scientific models are not set in stone and can be updated with new information, as errors are discovered. The outcomes have been within the range of scenarios. In the autumn, Scotland mandated mask-wearing with exceptions that some ignored, while England made masks voluntary but many wore masks anyway. No model can capture what people did, so what case numbers really mattered was what people did.
Governments make decisions. I don't envy politicians who have to listen to the truth about the health outcomes of Omicron. Economic, political and social considerations need to be heard.
I am concerned that media coverage of Covid has shifted from science journalists to political journalists. If you are explaining you are losing is a political slogan. Science-based policy advocates and scientists who explain the conflicting data to the public but avoid policy advocacy are important. I try hard to be both of the two, but it seems impossible. If science becomes a tribal identity, a lot of fellow citizens will close their ears.
Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, is a model of compassion, honesty and humility that we should all aspire to, and some in the science community have fallen short.
Some suspects, mostly from politics, claim that they knew Omicron was less severe. There were signs that it could be milder at the beginning and I hoped it would be, but there were good reasons to suspect the opposite. False certainty is harmful. Modelling should consider all possible outcomes.
The models changed when the new data was published. There are risks for the health service if Omicron continues to spread rapidly.
Some people argue against further restrictions and have interesting things to say. Those who make modellers and scientists look like gloomsters are dishonest and irresponsible. The political world plays the man not the ball. Let's talk about your models, what you don't know, what you assume, and the risks you are prepared for in the UK.
Over 150,000 people have died from Covid in the UK. They all meant something. More people have died from Covid in the UK than in most other advanced countries. We got things wrong. We must all do better if the tragedy is to serve a higher purpose. I would like to see people who are in front of a microphone or writing on a piece of paper show a little humility and humanity.
James H Naismith is the director of the institute.
