Who wins the AFC North? It's the NFL's tightest race in 44 years



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Lamar Jackson was down for Week 16.

The latest news on Lamar Jackson's availability for the Ravens is provided by Adam Schefter. (0:28)

It's not the best division in football, but it's certainly the most competitive.

Any team can win it or finish last in the regular season. It's the closest division race in 44 years at this point in the season, with one game separating the teams at the top and bottom. The Pittsburgh division champion is a half-game back.

The last time a division was crowded with three weeks left was in 1977 when the Ravens, Colts, and Texans were in the same division.

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The Football Power Index is a measure of standings.

Through the first 15 weeks of the season, no team has led the division by more than one game. Will the team go from last to first in a year? Will the Ravens win their third division title in four years with a banged-up Lamar Jackson? Ben Roethlisberger could be playing his last season if the Steelers win the title. The first division championship by the Browns since 1989 is up for debate.

Kevin Zeitler is the resident expert of the AFC North and he understands the stakes.

"I think every week from here on out is a playoff game," said Zeitler, who has also blocked for the Cincinnati and Cleveland.

The winner of Sunday's game between the Ravens and the Bengals. Every team still has a chance to win the title, even though CBS will take hold of the AFC North.

"I think Cincinnati wins it, and I've felt this way for the last two months now," said Dan Orlovsky, an analyst. I don't think Pittsburgh is good enough on offense or defense to be able to minimize that. I don't know how the Ravens are, given their injuries. I think eventually that catches up to you. The injury at quarterback is a problem for Cleveland. I don't believe in them, especially with Green Bay this weekend.

The reporter is from the Ravens.

Here's how the reporters break down the homestretch in the AFC North. Percentages are provided by the power index.

The Cincinnati Bengals.

Ja'Marr Chase had a touchdown and a season-high 202 yards receiving in the win over the Ravens.

There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.

The chances of the FPI winning the division are 40.0%.

There are two main reasons that the Bengals could win the division. Cincinnati has shown it's never out of a game if Joe Burrow protects the football. The defense might be even bigger. Lou Anoarum's unit has done a good job of either holding opposing offenses at bay until Cincinnati's offense gets rolling, creating timely turnovers or both. Cincinnati will be able to get its first postseason bid since 2015.

Cincinnati's offense has been the biggest issue all year. The numbers don't seem bad on the surface. The Bengals were 13th in yards per play and 12th in points per drive after Sunday's games. Early in games, Cincinnati's inability to sustain drives has been an issue. According to research by the sports information company, the Cincinnati Bengals had the fifth-highest three-and-out rate in the league after their win over Denver. 18 of Cincinnati's 42 touchdown have come on plays of 20 yards or more, the most in the league. It's not the most sustainable way to win games.

The Ravens.

Will Lamar Jackson be able to play on Sunday, or will Tyler Huntley get the nod?

There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.

35.0% is the chance that the FPI will win the division.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the reason the Ravens could win. Jackson can carry a team like few others when he's at his best. Jackson was the only player in the history of the league to have 2,000 passing and 600 rushing yards in his team's first eight games. There are questions about Jackson's health. Tyler Huntley can't change games like Jackson, so the Ravens have faith in him. The defense of the Ravens is a reason for optimism. The past six games, Baltimore has held offenses under 20 points.

Injuries finally catch up to the Ravens. Baltimore has overachieved this season with a banged-up roster that has included the loss of seven starters. The Ravens' end-of-season schedule is even more difficult when you consider the health of the other teams. The number of Ravens who have been on injured reserve at some point this season is 23, which is the same number of players they have on injured reserve. Baltimore has lost its past three games by a total of four points. You have to wonder how much this team has left.

The Pittsburgh Steelers.

If Ben Roethlisberger leaves Pittsburgh after this season, this might be his last chance to lead the team to the playoffs.

The chances of the FPI making the playoffs are 18.8%.

The chances of the FPI winning the division are 11.2%.

The offense is still growing pains and the defense is ranked last against the rush, but the Steelers are still in the playoffs. If they maintain their winning ways against the Ravens and Tennessee, the Steelers could be the last team standing in the division because of the play of T.J. Watt. If the Steelers win the division after a three-game winless stretch in the middle of the season, they should be considered for Coach of the Year.

The run game is abysmal and the rush defense is near the bottom of the league. The Pittsburgh's ground game is second worst in the league with 1,184 yards and a 3.6 yards per carry average, despite the fact that they drafted Najee Harris in the first round. The Steelers aren't winning in the trenches. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have a tendency to start slow. The Steelers have been able to win close games, but they aren't guaranteed to win the division.

They are called the Browns.

The season has been frustrating for Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns, but they still have a chance to make the playoffs.

There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.

The chances of the FPI winning the division are 13.8%.

The second-easiest strength of schedule remaining of the four teams in the division is held by the Browns. Cleveland has a chance to make up ground in two of their final three games, because they have divisional opponents in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The defense has hit its stride even with the issues, and the quarterback is as healthy as he has been all season. The Cleveland running game travels and should be healthy for the stretch run.

The Browns are last in the division with three games to go. It will be difficult to win in Green Bay on Christmas Day, but Cleveland might have to do it on their own. The offense has only put up 17 points once since October 10, and that was against Baltimore in Week 14. There is no margin for error after the heartbreaking loss to the Raiders.