The current surge in COVID-19 data out of South Africa suggests it has resulted in fewer deaths than previous Surges.
The impact of Omicron on South Africa was highlighted in a series of graphs shared by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former FDA commissioner.
In the province of South Africa that was hit hardest by Omicron, the number of daily hospitalizations and deaths has been less than previous peaks in the area.
Scott Gottlieb, MD, December 23, 2021.
The graphs were created using data from South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases and Our World in Data, and compare the current Omicron surge to three previous peaks in the country.
Gottlieb says that the number of admissions to the intensive care unit in the province is down 80% on a relative basis.
The current Omicron epidemic in South Africa has resulted in less deaths compared to previous peaks in the country.
The deaths were tied to daily case numbers in the country. In the last month, deaths have remained relatively low despite a significant increase in cases.
Scott Gottlieb, MD, December 23, 2021.
A recent study out of South Africa suggests that Omicron cases have a reduced risk of hospitalization and severe disease compared to people with the Delta variant.
Researchers at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases compared data about Omicron cases from October and November with data about Delta infections from April to November in South Africa.
Some of the findings are likely due to high immunity.
The country's COVID-19 cases have been steadily declining in recent days, which has prompted some experts to predict that South Africa's Omicron peak is on the decline. It's too early to say that the peak has passed because case numbers are not reliable.
Several US scientists are preparing for a long battle with Omicron. The US's outbreak may peak in January and last no more than three months, according to new models.
