It is good news that there is evidence that Omicron infections are less severe than other Covid infections, but it is not likely to change the duration of the epidemic.
Several pieces of research published this week suggest that people with Omicron are less likely to be hospitalized.
The UK Health Security Agency said on Thursday that those with the variant are between 31% and 45% less likely to attend A&E compared with the Delta variant.
Researchers at the University of Edinburgh studied infections from the Delta and Omicron variant since November and found that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of Covid-19 hospitalisation.
The results suggested no change in the level of infections. Even if only a small proportion of people with Covid need to go to hospital, it could cause difficulties for the health service.
Mark Woolhouse, a professor at the University of Edinburgh and one of the co-authors of the Scotland study, said the weight of new research meant that projections would be less pessimistic.
It doesn't get us out of the woods. Woolhouse said that the public health burden is only one factor in terms of the severity of the infections.
The sheer size of the wave is the other thing. According to our data in Scotland, an Omicron infection is about one-third as severe or likely to put you in hospital as a Delta infection. We are back where we started if there are three times as many cases.
The sheer size of the wave, the fast growth rates, and the fast doubling time are all concerns. The peak numbers of cases that we have seen in the UK are still climbing, so it is the size of that wave that is worrying people most at the moment.
Dr Raghib Ali, a senior clinical research associate at the University of Cambridge, told the news agency that the hospital data was encouraging and may help justify the government's decision not to expand restrictions on social gathering over Christmas in England.
[.
Omicron is not amild. Take it from a long-hauler.
Theguardian.com has a commentary on the Dec. 23, Omicron-covid-19-long-hauler.
The scientist who did not want to be named said that Omicron infections were going to be disruptive because of the number of people who needed to self-isolate. It is good news if a small percentage of infections lead to serious illness.
The scientists at Imperial College London found a reduction in hospital visits between Omicron and Delta cases, and estimated that those with Omicron were less likely to be hospitalized overnight.
Two doses of a Covid vaccine were not enough to fight Omicron alone. Prof Neil Ferguson, one of the co-authors of the Imperial study, said: "If Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand."
Woolhouse said there were gaps in scientists' knowledge of Omicron, such as how the UK's booster campaign would affect the spread of infections.
boosters not only stop people from getting ill but also stop them from getting infections and passing them on. Woolhouse said that it would be very helpful, at the moment we don't know if it has much impact on the spread of these cases.
If it did have an impact on the spread of cases, that would be positive news, and that would affect the size of the wave and the public health burden.
