NFL Power Rankings Week 16: 1-32 poll, plus evaluating the job security of every team's coach

6:30 AM

Two games from Week 15 were delayed until 7 p.m., and this week's power rankings are off. Tuesday won't be accounted for. The times of COVID-19 are like that.

The Power Rankings account for this week's coaching speculation. The home stretch of the season is important to the futures of coaches who are on the hot seat. This week's rankings will be dedicated to identifying how much danger each coach is in. We came up with four categories to identify how hot each coach's seat is.

4. If things don't turn around by the end of the season, I'll be on the hot seat.

3. If the season ends in disappointment, the warm seat is not safe.

2. The seat is cool and safe.

1. No way he'll be fired.

We looked at the status of the 30 other coaches, as well as the two coaches who had already been removed, Jon Gruden with the Las Vegas Raiders and Urban Meyer with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Our power panel, made up of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities, evaluates how teams stack up throughout the season to determine our Power Rankings.

The previous rankings were as follows: 15; 13; 12; 11; 10; 9; 8; 7; 6; 5; 4; 3; 2; Preseason.

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Sea, TEN, and WSH are abbreviations.

There is a method for this.

1. The Green Bay Packers are 11-3).

The previous ranking was 3.

How hot is Matt LaFleur's seat? The seat is cold.

Three division titles in three seasons. That's what says everything that needs to be said. The Packers are in line to grab home-field advantage in the playoffs, and they should be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year, as they overcame an embarrassing, 38-3 season-opening loss to the Saints, and LaFleur is in line for a contract extension.

2. The Kansas City Chiefs are doing well.

The previous ranking was 4.

How hot is Andy Reid's seat? The seat is cold.

The Chiefs are on the verge of winning their sixth straight division title, and they have control of their own destiny to win the top seed in the playoffs. So they're going to fire him? Not a chance. In the five seasons before his arrival, the Chiefs had two two-win seasons and two other campaigns with four wins each, and they're on track to win more than those 12 games this season alone.

3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are doing well.

The previous ranking was 1

How hot is Bruce Arians' seat? The seat is cold.

In the 9-0 home loss to the Saints on Sunday night, the Bucs' offense was nowhere to be found, but that's not to say that Tom Brady is not putting up some of the best numbers of his career. Despite being decimated in the secondary, this team still managed to win 10 games despite the implosion against the Saints.


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4. The Dallas Cowboys are 10-4.

The previous ranking was 6.

How hot is Mike McCarthy's seat? The seat is cold.

The Cowboys might not have started out that way, but McCarthy has them poised to win the division and possibly the top seed in the playoffs. He has managed a team that has had injuries. He has had some eyebrow-raising moments with his clock management, but he has done a good job of making sure the players are physically and emotionally ready for the season. He will be judged by what the Cowboys do in the playoffs, but there is no question about his future.

5. The New England team is 9-5.

The previous ranking was 5.

How hot is Bill's seat? The seat is cold.

After the loss at Indianapolis, the Pats were eliminated from playoff contention, but they were still considered a contender for the Coach of the Year honor. Few saw that coming. A big free-agent spending spree has sparked a resurgence, and as a result, it's safe to say that the job of Bill Belichick is as secure as it's ever been in his 22nd season.

6. The Los Angeles Rams are 9-4.

The previous ranking was 8.

How hot is Sean McVay's seat? The seat is cold.

Since the Rams named him as the youngest head coach in modern NFL history in 2017, McVay has won two division titles and an NFC championship. The Rams have made the playoffs in three of McVay's five seasons. They are well on their way to earning a fourth playoff spot and possibly a third division title. Even if the Rams don't make it to a hometown Super Bowl in February, he would be welcome back in 2022.

7. The ArizonaCardinals (10-4) are doing well.

The previous ranking was 2.

How hot is Kliff Kingsbury's seat? The seat is cool.

Outkast said that a few weeks ago, the seat was like ice cold. The manner in which the Cards fell to the Lions on Sunday has made him feel a little better. If the Cards have a third straight late-season collapse and it affects their seeding in the playoffs, it's possible that they'll fire him. It will depend on how bad it gets until they are eliminated from the playoffs.

8. The TennesseeTitans are 9-5.

The previous ranking was 7.

How hot is Mike Vrabel's seat? The seat is cold.

Vrabel has won at least nine games in each of his first four seasons, and his.606 win percentage is the fourth highest in franchise history. The team made a run to the Championship game. The Tennessee team won the first AFC South title in six years last season. Despite rostering an NFL-record 88 players on game day this season, Vrabel has the Titans well within reach of a second AFC South crown.

9. The Buffalo Bills are 8-6.

The previous ranking was 9.

How hot is Sean McDermott's seat? The seat is cold.

The expectations going into the season for the Bills could make this a cool seat, but they aren't going anywhere. If the team can beat the Pats and win the division, it will be a good performance for the coach. There have been some questionable moments this season, but the team will have multiple chances to make the playoffs.


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10. The Indianapolis Colts are 8-6.

The previous ranking was 13

How hot is Frank Reich's seat? The seat is cold.

Reich has led the Colts to the playoffs in each of the last four seasons. Reich has gotten his team to rebound from a slow start in two of the four seasons. The Colts started the season with a 0-3 and 1-4 record, but they are now the 5th seed in the playoffs and have an 8-6 record. Reich isn't going anywhere, I think.

11. San Francisco 49ers are doing well.

The previous ranking was 11.

How hot is Kyle's seat? The seat is cool.

There's almost no chance that Shanahan will be gone after this season. It seems foolish to speak in absolutes on anything related to the NFL. The six-year contract extension signed in 2020 will last through the year 2025. The Niners are on a playoff trajectory, which would be a good bounce back after a disappointing Super Bowl run. The future of the Shanahan era is going to be determined by what happens in the coming years with him coaching and playing quarterback. The duo will have the chance to see where they can go together.

Everything you need this week.
The full schedule is Standings.
Every team has depth charts.
Transactions and injuries.
Football Power Index rankings.
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12. The Los Angeles Chargers are 8-6)

The previous ranking was 12.

How hot is Brandon's seat? The seat is cold.

The team hasn't been to the playoffs since the year 2000. After the end of last season, the team got a new quarterback in the form of Justin Herbert and a new coach in the form of Staley. The organization and the players are behind the coach's decisions even when they don't work. He has a young staff and talented players on both sides of the ball. Staley has their trust. The activation period has been well-received and mimicked around the league.

13. The Baltimore Ravens are 8-6.

The previous ranking was 10.

How hot is John Harbaugh's seat? The seat is cold.

Harbaugh's decision to go for two points late in games has been debated, but the Ravens wouldn't be in these games if it wasn't for his coaching. Baltimore has 23 players on injured reserve at some point this season. Even if the Ravens don't make the playoffs, this has been one of Harbaugh's more remarkable coaching performances in what has been a successful 14 seasons in Baltimore. Baltimore has won 137 games since Harbaugh became the Ravens coach. Four teams have won more over that time.

14. The Cincinnati team is 8-6).

The previous ranking was 14.

How hot is Taylor's seat? The seat is warm.

There is a choice between warm and lukewarm. Do you like a cup of coffee? Taylor's situation feels like that. The win against Denver kept Cincinnati in the playoff chase. Cincinnati holds a share of the lead in the AFC North and the hopes of being a playoff contender are still very much alive. Taylor deserves a lot of credit for the team's success. There's still some work to be done as the team closes out their third season.

15. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-13-1.

The previous ranking was 16.

How hot is Mike Tomlin's seat? The seat is cold.

A change of guard is coming in Pittsburgh, but the coach is staying put. Kevin Colbert could follow in the footsteps of Ben Roethlisberger if he doesn't pick up another season on his year-to-year deal. In April, he signed a three-year extension. Despite being inconsistent at times, the Steelers are still in the running to win the AFC North with three weeks left in the season. Something is happening at halftime that has helped the Pittsburgh team in the second half, but his messaging hasn't always gotten through to his team before the game. That is Mike Tomlin.


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16. The Miami Dolphins are 7-7

The previous ranking was 18.

How hot is Brian Flores' seat? The seat is cool.

The recent six-game winning streak has catapulted Miami back into playoff contention, which would have made Flores' seat much hotter. Even if the Dolphins lose out, it's unlikely Flores will leave. If they get off to a slow start for the third season in a row, his seat will heat up fast.

17. The New Orleans Saints are 7-7

The previous ranking was 22.

How hot is Sean Payton's seat? The seat is cold.

Despite the fact that New Orleans just had one of its most impressive wins of the season without him on Sunday, his job is not in danger. The Saints' passing offense has been stagnant for the first time since 2006 Their 7-7 record is decent, despite all the attrition they've faced, including Drew Brees' retirement and salary-cap cuts. The coaching staff is a strength and the team might have to rebuild in the near future.

18. The Cleveland Browns are 7-7

The previous ranking was 15.

How hot is Kevin's seat? The seat is cold.

Injuries and COVID-19 issues have led to the up and down of the Browns this season. The reigning NFL Coach of the Year is in no danger of losing his job, even though he helped the Cleveland Browns to their first playoff victory in 18 years last season.

19. The Minnesota Vikings are 7-7

The previous ranking was 21.

How hot is Mike's seat? A hot seat.

The Vikings have not missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since Zimmer took over. If they don't make it this season, it's hard to imagine the Wilf's wanting to keep the coach even though he has two years left on his contract. The Vikings have played a lot of one-score games this season, and the amount of resources that were poured into retooling this once-vaunted unit, and the Wilfs want to get off the roller coaster.

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20. The Broncos are 7-7

The previous ranking was 17

How hot is Fangio's seat? The seat is warm.

George Paton hasn't completed his first season as the Broncos general manager, so it's not clear how he will react to the season Denver is having. It's not known if he will replace the entire coaching staff or keep Fangio with the caveat that the coach has to make changes on the staff. Paton believes Fangio and his staff work well together on personnel and the development of young players. The scoring defense is the second best in the league. The team's faithful are tired of waiting for a holiday football miracle, as the team has missed the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.

21. The Las Vegas Raiders are 7-7

The previous ranking was 23.

Rich's seat is 4. A hot seat.

The interim coach is on his way out because he was not liked by the fans. He won his first two games after taking over, but lost five of his next six games, which all but sealed the deal. Raiders fans and the media are already talking about some of the names that are being bandied about. Buckle up.

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The picture and scenarios of the playoffs.
The interactive NFL Playoff Machine was created by ESPN.
The Football Power Index is a measure of standings.

22. The Washington football team is.

The previous ranking was 19

How hot is Ron Rivera's seat? The seat is cold.

Washington overcame a 2-7 start to win the division and play well down the stretch. That gave Rivera goodwill. Washington started the season slow but went on a four-game win streak to get back into the playoffs. Washington's campaign could be derailed by injuries and COVID-19, but there's no doubt Rivera has earned a third season. The team will have to show even more progress next season, but there's reason for optimism.

23. The Philadelphia Eagles have a losing record.

The previous ranking was 20.

How hot is Nick's seat? The seat is cold.

There were some shaky moments early in the season, but since then, he has found his footing. He shifted his approach to more of a ground-based attack in Week 8. The Eagles are second in points per game, first in third-down efficiency, and third in explosive plays. Philadelphia is currently in the thick of the playoff race, having won four of six games. Despite a rocky start, he was able to keep his players on board. He has another year at the helm.

24. The Atlanta Falcons have a losing record.

The previous ranking was 24.

How hot is Arthur Smith's seat? The seat is cold.

Smith is in his first year as a head coach. The Falcons are in the playoffs despite being hamstrung by salary-cap issues. The Falcons missed out on the playoffs for three years in a row. It would be here if there was a zero option. There is no reason to think Arthur Smith won't come back.

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25. The Seattle Seahawks are winless.

The previous ranking was 25.

How hot is Pete Carroll's seat? The seat is cool.

Observers who talk about the possibility of Seattle firing Carroll forget that the team gave him a five-year extension in the fall of 2020. If Jody Allen lost his faith in him after one lousy season, the team's defacto owner probably wouldn't have given him a deal three years longer than his previous one. Allen could possibly chalk this up as a season done in by Russell Wilson's injury more than anything, as he is responsible for the miserable start by the Seahawks' defense. Allen has been a mystery since she took control of the team. Conventional wisdom says his contract and track record will give him security.

26. The Carolina Panther's are 5-9.

The previous ranking was 26.

How hot is Matt Rhule's seat? The seat is warm.

If they lose their next three games, they will be on a seven-game skid and have only five wins for a second straight season. David Tepper gave Rhule a seven-year deal because he knew the rebuild could take time, but expectations seemed to change after a three-game winning streak. Rhule and his staff are in a bind for the future because of poor decisions at quarterback and with Joe Brady. The lack of improvement down the stretch over the last two seasons might change Tepper's mind.

27. The New York Giants have a losing record.

The previous ranking was 27.

How hot is Joe Judge's seat? The seat is warm.

Even though Judge is in his second season, the losses are piling up. The Giants don't want to fire their coaches every two years. They did it with Ben and Pat. Team co-owner John Mara admitted that he regretted cutting it off so quickly with McAdoo and that he still believed in Judge. It's hard to believe the Giants would fire Judge after this season if it only gets worse in the last few weeks.

28. The Bears are 4-10).

The previous ranking was 28.

How hot is Matt Nagy's seat? A hot seat.

After another losing season, the expectation is that the Bears will fire Nagy in a matter of weeks. Nagy was hired to ignite Chicago's offense. The Bears have scored the eighth-fewest points in the NFL under his leadership, and the development of quarterback Justin Fields has gone according to plan. The 295 points Chicago surrendered in its 10 losses make it unlikely that ownership will do anything to change things.

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29. The Detroit Lions are 2-11.

The previous ranking was 31

How hot is Dan Campbell's seat? The seat is cool.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. The Lions' players and front-office members love Campbell and work hard for him despite the disappointing record in his first season. He has made mistakes, notably when he was first adjusting to taking over the playcalling role, but Campbell's effort and intensity have been consistent, which is how he has earned his respect. The Lions are in the midst of another rebuild, and Campbell is trying to make the most of what he has while building a culture with toughness and grit at the forefront.

30. The Houston Texans have a 3-11 record.

The previous ranking was 32.

How hot is David Culley's seat? The seat is warm.

The Texans have just three wins this season, two of which were against the lowly Jaguars. Culley admitted during Monday's news conference that Caserio instructed him to let the Pats score as they approached the red zone in Week 5 to give Houston's offense a chance to reply with more time on the clock. It's fair to wonder if Caserio thinks Culley should stay on as head coach. Caserio might already have his mind made up about the future, and it's possible that he doesn't include Culley.

31. The New York Jets are 3-11.

The previous ranking was 29

Robert Saleh's seat is very hot. The seat is cold.

One of the worst rosters in the league is finishing up the year with a major youth movement. The rebuild should start to bear fruit in 2022. His defense is historically poor, but he is doing a good job of energizing the organization with his upbeat demeanor. He never imagined the negative vibes would test him in such a way.

32. The Jacksonville Jags are 2-12.

The previous ranking was 30.

How hot is Darrell Bevell's seat? A hot seat.

Khan is on the hot seat after firing Urban Meyer last week. He has missed on every coaching/gm hire he has made in the 10 years he has owned the team, and he needs to get this one right. If Khan doesn't hire a quarterback, the franchise could go back another decade.