In a country that tracks the spread of coronaviruses as closely as any in the world, the signals have never been more concerning. Omicron positives double every two days. After the next case, the country is setting a daily record. The lab recently added an overnight shift to keep up.
Scientists say the surge is just beginning.
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Many are looking to the government institute devoted to testing, surveillance and modeling for warnings about what to expect as omicron drives a new phase of the pandemic.
The answer is dire even in a wealthy country. The virus is about to run out of control, and scientists here expect a similar pattern in much of the world.
The next month will be the most difficult period of the Pandemic, said the chief epidemiologist at the State Serum Institute.
Since omicron's emergence in November, the best hope has been that the variant might cause less severe sickness than the delta version, which might make this wave more manageable and help covid-19 transition into an endemic disease. Even a lessened strain will deliver an unprecedented blow to the country as projected by the projections.
Scientists caution that the knowledge of omicron is not certain. The modelers of the virus have many scenarios. Even in a middle-of-the-road scenario, the hospitals in the country will soon face a daily flow of patients.
"This will overwhelm the hospitals," he said. I don't have any doubts about it.
In her office building, where she works with a six-person modeling team, she tried to explain why omicron was a problem. She described how the vaccine had acted like two barrier walls to protect the health system. The vaccine's ability to reduce the chance of infections kept the spread low. The less likely of death and severe sickness was the other barrier. The barriers had some holes, but they were able to keep the floods from getting too high.
She said that the first barrier has been largely removed. The unvaccinated are more vulnerable to omicron infections than the people with two doses. The majority of the country is vulnerable because three of four Danes have yet to receive a third dose.
The old and the frail are more likely to come in contact with the virus as the Danes skew older, like much of the West. The water will flow through the holes in the second wall.
The institute's latest projections were pulled up at the double-panel computer by the woman. The range of possibilities is wide, but the very best one is unlikely. The numbers soar into the sky in most of the other scenarios.
Last winter, the number of covid-19 patients in the hospitals peaked at more than 1,000. Hospitals could be seeing 500 new covid patients every day by early January. If omicron's transmissibility winds up on the higher end, and it proves as severe as delta, daily admissions could reach 800.
There is the matter of infections. Before this wave, the Danes had never seen more than 5,000 cases in a day. It had more than 11,000 new cases on Friday. In a moderate scenario, case numbers could reach 27,000 within a week. And into January? The institute's estimates are still going up.
The opening hours for bars and restaurants were cut, schools were closed seven days earlier than planned, and people were urged to work from home because of the surge. The projections didn't take into account the government's further moves, which included the closing of cinemas and theaters. She said that even a full lock down wouldn't stop this from getting out of control.
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When the nature of the coronaviruses is quickly shifting, the all-encompassing coronaviruses surveillance system designed specifically for moments like this is the reason why the projections of the Danes are taken seriously around the world.
The system starts with testing, and it shows:Denmark has seven times the population of the United States and more people than almost any other country on earth. The tests are free for both citizens and travelers and arrive at the State Serum Institute on the other side of the country. Within 24 hours, lab technicians identify the positives. They know which variant is responsible for every case by the next day.
The positives are fully genetically mapped, giving researchers an extra layer of insight into who the person is and how they got it.
Arieh Cohen is head of development at the lab that processes test results and conducts the initial variant analysis.
The data shows that the hospitalization rate is slightly lower for omicron than it is for delta, but because hospitalizations lag behind infections, the results will be more meaningful in a couple weeks.
Scientists have identified how omicron was seeding throughout the country, first from travelers from Africa and then through several superspreader events. A Christmas party attended by some 150 people was described in a paper published by the institute. Most of the people werevaccinated. 71 tested positive for omicron.
People in their 20s are disproportionately affected by omicron cases inDenmark, which may be missed by countries that test less. Some scientists at the institute think that the wave inDenmark is a week or two ahead of other Western countries. Many countries could already be experiencing the same pattern, with the young who are most likely to travel and socialize spreading the community.
"There's a chance that the spread that other countries are missing is being captured by the Danes," said Stegger.
Scientists here say that if the knowledge provides a way to safeguard the country, it makes sense to conduct research like this. When the alpha variant was taking hold a year ago, the Danes tightened their security and blunted the wave.
The government hasn't implemented a full lockdown. It has tried to be responsive to emerging science. The spread has not stopped. After nine days, the strategy of quashing all contacts of contacts was abandoned because it became impossible.
Many scientists at the State Serum Institute talk about the pre-omicron days as if they were from another era. The testing lab has hired 100 new people in the last few weeks. It purchased 20 new machines. It started fighting other countries for supplies after dipping into its reserve. The institute's Christmas party was canceled.
Scientists say they are nervous about what they are seeing, and a bit awe about what they are seeing. omicron accounted for 26.8% of cases as of Monday, the most recent day with complete, publicly released data. omicron's share was 4.9% a week earlier.
Cohen said that the lab was moving so fast that more samples were arriving. He said keeping things running was his top priority. He said he thought about the bigger picture for the epidemiologists. He said that he had a fatalistic opinion that we're all going to get this.
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The full consequences of omicron are still weeks away, on a computer screen or part of government warnings. In Britain, the only country that can match Denmark's variant surveillance, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has talked about a "tidal wave" of incoming cases. Europe's center for disease control says that the variant is likely to become dominant in January or February, as it is already dominant in London. The United States is bracing for a big wave that will cause hospitals to overload.
The models only project a few weeks into the future, and what lies beyond that is left to the scientific imagination.
The man with the imagination is one of the best-known virologists in the country, and he is at the State Serum Institute. He has curly hair. His colleagues call him an idea man. He works in a building where researchers are growing cultures.
He greeted the visitor under the neon lights, which he said represented HIV.
He said there was another epidemic. By the way, still going on.
He said that the origins of omicron could be connected to HIV, as the virus could have come from a person with animmunodeficiency disease, who could not kill off the virus. He said that there are people who have had the coronaviruses in hospitals. In most places, the changes are not being monitored.
He said that this could be one of the ways that the resistant virus is created.
He said his goal is to help humanity get ahead of covid. He's leading all sorts of experiments. There is research on a vaccine that targets T cells. The goal of the vaccine would be to stop sickness. The advantage is that it targets parts of the coronaviruses that don't change.
He said that they were all the time responding. We're behind. We are five steps behind.
He thinks the next month will be brutal. It's difficult to say. The coronaviruses could be pushed into something less menacing by the deepened protection given to them by infectious people. He said that the virus is impossible to eradicate. It could jump into rodents. Then maybe back into humans again. The coronaviruses is a "master mutator," and with vaccination, humans are driving it into a corner, where it can either weaken or change.
Fomsgaard said it could come out on the other end even weaker. That is a risky business. It might hit another big prize.
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