Since the emergence of Omicron, there have been waves of grim statistics that have washed over the nation.
There is a threat to the health service and a new year lock down looms. The battle against Covid-19 seems to have yielded nothing.
It is a harsh interpretation. A number of factors suggest there may be some ground for a little optimism, though scientists are careful to add the key caveat that we are only at the beginning of our dealings with the Omicron variant.
The drugs are anti-viral.
Over the past year, a number of anti-viral drugs have been shown to ward off serious illness and have been earmarked in the UK for vulnerable people. Both drugs reduce the amount of virus produced in the body and reduce the chance that patients will need hospital treatment.
The drugs should help reduce the burden of Covid-19 on those who are most likely to need health service care, and have a knock-on effect on the health service as well. These drugs will provide additional protection for those who are most at risk.
South Africa.
Omicron was first identified in South Africa, which saw a rapid rise in Covid-19 cases. The case numbers seem to have peaked, and early indications suggest that deaths could be lower than they have been for previous waves. The country is experiencing a wave of milder infections. Health officials have reported that people seem to recover more quickly from Omicron than from Delta.
It's not clear if these figures mean Omicron produces milder illness than previous versions. Some scientists are more optimistic than others, though others are more cautious.
Lance Turtle, senior clinical lecturer in infectious diseases, said that South Africa had a large wave of Delta and that it could provide protection. We might see more serious cases in the UK because our protection has begun to weaken.
The government's scientific advisers made the same point. Even if there were a modest reduction in severity compared to Delta, very high numbers of infections would still lead to significant pressure on hospitals.
Professor Martin Hibberd of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine was still positive. Most people have had at least some vaccine, which may help to reduce the severity experienced by many people, as we are in a better position than a year ago.
From the lab.
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What do we know about the new variant?
What do we know about the new-covid-variant?
Scientists have found a possible biological explanation for the reduced severity of Omicron. Michael Chan Chi-wai, a researcher at the University of Hong Kong, found that the new variant is less efficient in spreading than Delta because it is less efficient in reproducing in the upper respiratory tract.
The variant may spread between individuals more quickly but not reach more vulnerable parts of their anatomies. This would make illness less severe.
Chan has cautioned against interpreting the implications of his work. He said that a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death if it is spread to many more people. The threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.
