The scale of the threat posed by the Omicron variant was laid bare by government scientists last night as they warned that there are now hundreds of thousands of infections every day. If new restrictions aren't brought in immediately, that daily number could reach between 600,000 and 2 million by the end of the month.
The scientists who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies warned that hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths could reach between 600 and 6,000 a day.
The government was urged to bring back more stringent measures very soon. The timing of the measures is important according to the minutes of the meeting. Delaying would make it less likely that these interventions would not cause a lot of pressure on health and care settings.
The advisers suggested that the measures should be similar to those in place after step 2 or step 1 of the plan. The rules at that time included the rule of six and just two households meeting, as well as holidays abroad and care- home residents only being allowed one regular visitor.
A significant package of non-pharmaceutical interventions would be required to slow growth in infections, according to the minutes. Crowded indoor mixing is the biggest risk factor for spread. There is a risk for multiple spreading events.
Boris Johnson resisted imposing further measures after 100 of his MPs revolted against him. Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, has been criticized by the Conservatives for advising people to scale back their Christmas plans. There are no plans for an announcement on further Covid measures.
The impact of measures imposed under step 1 of the roadmap was also modeled by the company. Modelling suggested that infections could be limited to between 200,000 and a million a day if steps were taken. Between 1,500 and 5,000 admissions a day could be the average, with 200 to 2,000 deaths a day.
Increasing reliance on testing and rising cases could cause demand for tests to outstrip supply, while airborne transmission of Covid beyond two metres may happen more frequently.
A scientific paper published on Saturday suggested that it may be necessary to reconsider the wearing of face coverings in places where the balance of risks and benefits did not previously support it. Many face coverings, such as scarves, other single-layer fabrics and valved masks, are likely to be useless at reducing transmission.
A major incident was declared in London after a series of concerns were raised about the number of staff off sick. The number of cases in London increased rapidly. The number of Covid patients in London hospitals has gone up in the past week.
The leader of the Liberal Democrats called for a recall of parliament. He said that the prime minister should not sit on his hands while businesses are in danger. The latest scientific advice must be explained to the MPs and a proper debate must be held on future Covid measures.
Johnson now faces calls to ignore the rebels in his own party and take action, with Labour support, if necessary. Dan Poulter, a Conservative Member of Parliament and a hospital doctor, said that we should put measures in place sooner rather than later to deal with a variant of serious concern that is causing an increased number of cases. I find some of my colleagues highly irrational and confused at times. I hope the prime minister listens to the scientists and medics who are on the frontline.
Boris Johnson cannot allow his weakened authority within his party to prevent him from taking the decisions that might be necessary to protect public health. He may not have the votes of his own MPs, but the Labour Party is ready to do what is right in the national interest.
Governments across Europe are increasing their measures. The Netherlands will go into a state of lock down from Sunday morning, according to Mark Rutte. France said that the variant was spreading at lightning speed throughout Europe and would become the dominant variant in the country by the start of next year. Italy said it was tracking a strong acceleration of Omicron cases.
The UK scientists were concerned about the danger facing Britain. Michael Head is a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton. It makes a lot of sense to impose more restrictions.
The politics have become ugly. The prime minister's denials around the multiple Christmas parties that clearly happened are a little pathetic and we also have the mendacious undermining of the response to the epidemic by several of his more vocal, but ignorant, MPs. Strong leadership and collective voices are important at a time when the government is in a mess.
The point was supported by Prof James Naismith. Parliament decided to rely on hope and not impose restrictions early. We will know if that hope is wrong around Christmas Day, when it will be too late to stop the consequences. It would suggest that we have learned from our mistakes in order to repeat them.
The government appeared to be ignoring the advice of the WHO, parliamentary committees and the Sage to act in a timely fashion, warned Stephen Griffin, a virus expert. This is a repeat of previous failures and all the more upsetting as potential mitigations could now be linked to the vaccination programme. Boosters are being rolled out quickly but not fast enough if we allow Omicron the same freedom as we gave Delta.
