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A new study shows that winter tornadoes are likely to be stronger and stay on the ground longer in a warming world.
The combination of a longer and wider track with slightly stronger winds means some rare winter tornadoes that are killers now will have nine times more power by the end of the century if carbon dioxide levels continued to rise.
As climate change progresses, the study looks at strength and not the frequency of big tornadoes. It was presented in poster form as a peak of new research to be published later.
The author of the study said that there is a chance that events in the future will be more intense than they are now. These high end events are going to be rare.
The Hattiesburg, Mississippi, tornado that injured 82 people with winds of 170 mph and the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado that killed 24 people with winds up to 210 mph were both large tornadoes.
Between now and the end of the century, the world would have another 6 degrees of warming, which is what the world used to be on track for. He said he will run simulations based on a scenario where carbon dioxide emissions are close to the current trajectory.
When using a formula that takes wind speed, rotation and size of path into account, Trapp found a nine-fold increase in power when he compared it to the winter storm. He said the power went up 1.5 times.
There are two key ingredients for tornadoes, unstable weather and wind shear. In the winter, the difference between winds up high and near the ground is usually stronger, but there is not as much storm activity because of warm humid conditions near the ground. There will be more instability in the winter as the world warms.
Three outside scientists said there may be something to the research, but they are not completely convinced.
Harold Brooks is a scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. The result seems to be the longer-tracks for the cool season.
Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University, said the results of a single study always raise uncertainty issues, but they make sense.
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The study said that winter tornadoes would get more powerful as the world warms.
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