There were warnings days in advance of the deadly storms that hit the United States. The nation mourned for the human loss associated with the storms, and President Biden plans to visit affected areas. Rescue and recovery should be the focus right now, but there is a lot of discussion about climate change, warning efficacy, time of year and tornado records. Here are five questions that should be asked.
A view of homes and business destroyed by a tornado in Kentucky on December 11, 2011. An estimated 70 people were killed when tornadoes touched down in several states late Friday evening. The photo was taken by Scott Olson.
The images are from the same company.
My inbox was full of media requests about climate change. It is common for the question "Is this climate change?" to be asked with almost every extreme weather event. The lowest end of the extreme weather attribution spectrum was found in a 2016 National Academy of Sciences report. This does not mean there is no connection. It means there is no consensus conclusion from available observations, studies, or climate model simulations.
There are connections between climate change and extreme weather events reported in a National Academies report.
The National Academy of Sciences.
It is rare to find studies that say how many tornadoes will happen because of climate warming. The level of investigation is emerging but has some ways to go. According to studies by Dr. Victor Gensini, the broader scale environments may change. In Forbes, I wrote that smaller scale models fed with global climate model data suggest environments and associated proxies associated with severe weather will increase in the spring and exhibit variability from year to year.
Scientists are seeing a shift in the activity of tornadoes. The National Severe Storms Laboratory and Gensini have found negative tendencies on tornado occurrence in the Great Plains and increasing trends in the Southeast and Midwest. The study suggested that the Mid-South is vulnerable to more tornado disasters in the future. The factors that may be associated with this shift are being explored. The Great Plains-Texas region is still the leader in tornado frequencies. It is just going down.
Let's all take a pledge right now. I will not use the term tornado alley anymore. This term makes people think that the Great Plains are the only place where tornadoes can occur. We should not refer to increasing activity in the South as being associated with the area.
Researchers at Northern Illinois University say that tornado environments are shifting to the Mid-South and Southeast.
Victor Gensini is a press release from Northern Illinois University.
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I remembered a study by Maria and colleagues, as I pondered this recent disaster. They suggested that a warmer Gulf of Mexico could increase the likelihood of tornadoes. The Gulf of Mexico is at record warmth for this time of year, likely contributing to the record high low temperatures observed along parts of the Gulf Coast last week and providing a soupy setup for the severe storms of the past several days. It is consistent with the basics of meteorology. Climate change and warmer sea surface temperatures are connected.
Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are derived from satellite data.
It's the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
Why does so much misinformation happen when there are tornadoes?
Every time it happens. Some people claim that the increase in tornadoes is related to climate warming. Increased population density is likely to be the reason for the tornado trends. I also see people that misuse incorrect claims about tornado to further their contrarian views. The sun rising each day is a predictable cycle.
The science has to be consumed from multiple perspectives. A study done by Cook and colleagues found that tornado activity increased in parts of the Mid-South during La Nia years as compared to El Nio years. During the La Nia phase, winter tornadoes were more common. We are currently in a double dip. A study using climate modeling techniques found that proxies for hazardous convective weather are expected to increase by the end of the 21st century. My point is that tornadic activity is a function of variability. My advice is to be careful with big sweeping statements or perspectives that are steeped in agendas or are anchored in the scientific literature.
The Amazon Fulfillment Center in Illinois was hit by a tornado on December 11. One official said that the western Kentucky town of Mayfield was "ground zero" of the storm. Tim Vizer and Tim VIZER are pictured.
The images are from the same source.
How does OSHA deal with warnings?
The recent tornadoes in the Mid-South centered around the workplace. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration was investigating an Amazon building collapse in Illinois during the tornado. Workers in a candle factory in Kentucky were killed by the storm. OSHA gives guidance on weather related activities. There is a website that gives recommended practices for heat and work place environments. The Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is set to issue a new rule to combat heat illness when the heat index is over 80 degrees, according to a report on the website.
The OSHA website states that it is a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador who is committed to working with other Ambassadors to strengthen national preparedness for and resilience against extreme weather. Recommendations for severe weather plans, checklists, and recovery can be found on the website. OSHA has specific recommendations for tornado threats.
A system for accounting for everyone in the building is being developed.
An alarm system to warn workers in multiple languages.
The accounting system for workers arriving in shelters is being created.
Designating workers with responsibilities.
Some businesses are required to have an emergency action plan in place, according to the OSHA website. There is a question of whether more can be done at the intersection of occupational safety and hazards. Lessons learned from tragedies are usually the result of society being reactive rather than proactive.
Did any tornado track records exist?
I was in awe of the long-track nature of some of the storms. It is thought that one of the tornadoes could have been over 200 miles away. The National Weather Service was still assessing the storms at the time of writing. I am inclined to let them do the work. Randy Cerveny, a professor at Arizona State University and manager of the World Meteorological Organization's Archive of Weather and Climate Extremes, told me that an investigation will be opened regarding whether it is a new world-record tornado.
