Play.
The biggest threat to the Bucs is cards.
Kurt Warner talked about the variety of ways the Cards can win and how that makes them the biggest threat to the Bucs. (1:31)
The time is 11:35 PM.
The playoff race is not settled. Not a single team has qualified for the playoffs with one game left. The Rams will play the Cards on Monday night. A win by the Cards will make them into the playoffs. The Packers would ascend to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs if they lost.
The team that didn't play won the most. The Colts moved up to the No. 6 spot after losses by the Bills, Bills, and Steelers. The Colts are one of five teams in the conference with a difficult remaining schedule. The biggest loser? The Lions, Jets andJaguars were eliminated from contention on Sunday.
We've put together a snapshot of the NFL playoff picture, with a bit of our own instincts and a bit of the Football Power Index (FPI) to give you a sense of short- and long-term stakes. We'll keep you updated after Monday night's game and after Thursday night's game.
Go to:AFC
A group of people.
1. New England is 9-4
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to win the division.
The bye week was a time for the Pats to regroup and come out of it atop the AFC. The Tennessee and Kansas City teams both won on Sunday to match New England's record, but the Pats have a better conference record.
The two-week stretch could well decide the title. If they beat the Bills in Week 16 and then win at Indianapolis on Saturday, the division will be theirs.
Next stop: at Colts.
2. The TennesseeTitans (9-4) are doing well.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
98% of the time, the FPI will win the division.
The two-game losing streak was an antidote for theTitans. TheJaguars showed up in Nashville and lost to theTitans. It was the eighth time in the past nine games that the teams have met, and the fifth time that the Titans have won.
A win over the Pittsburgh and a Colts loss to the Pats would allow Tennessee to win the division. They are in a good position to overtake the Pats for the top spot in the conference. The head-to-head between the Chiefs and theTitans is currently tied, but the Pats have an advantage in the conference record. The rest of the way is the easiest part of the league's schedule. They have games against the 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans left.
Next stop: at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
3. The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-4.
There is a 98% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 61%.
The public is growing more and more confident that the Chiefs will finish the season at the top of the AFC. The demolition of the Raiders on Sunday was their sixth consecutive victory and brought them even in their record with the two other teams. The conference record and head-to-head tiebreakers have the Chiefs third in the three-way tie.
There is a big game at the Chargers. The wild-card race would be dropped if the Chiefs lost. The head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bolts would allow the Chiefs to win the division.
Next stop: at the Chargers.
4. The Baltimore Ravens are 8-5
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
There is a chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Ravens have lost two in a row in the division, falling from the top seed to fourth. The Ravens were considered to be a potential drop out of the playoffs by the end of the season. Their remaining schedule is one of the league's toughest. Lamar Jackson has been added to the injury list.
The Ravens are not a playoff team at the moment, even though they have a one game lead in the division.
Next up is the Packers.
5. The Los Angeles Chargers are 5-5.
There is 85% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Chargers have won two in a row, scoring 78 points in the process, and will face the Chiefs on Thursday night. The winner of that game will have the lead in the division. The head-to-head could be decided by the Bolts and the Chiefs. This could be the game of the year because of the quarterbacks on the field and a lot on the line.
Next up is the Chiefs.
Play.
In each of his first two seasons as a player, the Chargers' Justin Herbert has thrown 30 touchdown passes.
6. The Indianapolis Colts are 4-7.
There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
2% is the chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Colts were able to rise to 6th after losses by the Bills and theBengals. The Colts are in a good position for a wild-card spot because of the head-to-head sweep the Colts have against the Titans. They will need to run a gauntlet over the next two weeks, with games against the Raiders andJaguars. A 2-2 split might be enough.
Next up: New England.
7. The Buffalo Bills are 7-6)
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
There is a 24% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Bills went from the top of the conference to barely making the playoffs. They have lost four in the past six games. They're not getting the outcomes you would expect from a team with a deep playoff run, but only one of their losses has been by more than one score. The Bills have one game left against a team with a winning record, and they have a good chance to hang onto one of the wild-card spots.
Next up is the Carolinas.
In the hunt for the football team.
The Cleveland Browns are 4-7.
If the Ravens were to win the title, the head-to-head tie-breaker would be eliminated by the Browns. 42% of the time, the Browns will make the playoffs, and they are in both the divisional and wild-card mix. They have a winnable game in Week 15 against the Raiders.
The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-7.
The losses to the 49ers and the Chargers have taken a toll on the Cincinnati's playoff chances. They'll face another team in Week 15 if they make it, and they're only given a 29% chance to make it.
Here's how the playoffs looks at the moment and what might happen in the future.
The picture and scenarios of the playoffs.
The interactive NFL Playoff Machine was created by ESPN.
The Football Power Index is a measure of standings.
The Denver Broncos are 7-6)
The Broncos have won four of their past six games and have a chance to jump another playoff contender when they take on the Bengals in Week 15. The Broncos have a 27% chance of jumping into the top seven.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-6
The Pittsburgh Steelers are down to a small chance of making the playoffs, according to a new report. Their remaining schedule is brutal, with games against the Ravens, Ravens, and Chiefs. Their elimination from playoff contention is the only thing left.
The NFC is a part of the game.
1. The ArizonaCardinals are 10-2
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 98%.
There will be an interesting pivot point on Monday night. A win over the Rams on Monday night will allow the Cards to make the playoffs, but not the title. If they lose to Minnesota and San Francisco, or if they lose to Minnesota and New Orleans, they will be out of the playoffs.
The Packers have a head-to-head advantage over the Cards, so a loss on Monday would cause them to fall out of the top spot. Even in that scenario, they would still have a good chance of winning the division. If the Rams lose to the Cards on Monday and then lose to the Raiders in Week 15 of the season, the title will be decided next week.
Next up is the Rams.
2. The Green Bay Packers are 10-3)
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Packers have won two of their last three games and are in a position to take over the top spot in the conference if the Cards slip up. If the Packers beat the Ravens or the Vikings lose to the Bears in Week 15, the Packers will be in control of the division. The Packers can make the playoffs in Week 15 if the Saints and 49ers lose.
In a flawed league, the Packers have as good of a chance as any team to make a deep playoff run, and they have a few areas to shore up.
Next stop: at Ravens.
3. The Buccaneers are 10-3.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Buccaneers knew they couldn't make it to the playoffs if they lost to the Bills. In Week 15 that will change. A win at home against the Saints would make them the first team in the South to make the playoffs. If the Vikings and 49ers both lose, they'd win the playoffs.
The Saints have won all three regular-season meetings between these two teams since Tom Brady joined the Buccaneers. The Saints were beaten by the Buccaneers in the divisional playoffs.
Next up is the Saints.
Play.
Leonard Fournette finds some help from his offensive line as he narrowly avoids a tackle and runs for a 47-yard touchdown.
4. The Dallas Cowboys are 9-4.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 98%.
Although they made it more interesting than it needed to be, the Cowboys were able to win a key game on the road. The Cowboys are in control of the division and can wrap it up as early as Week 15. They will need to beat the Giants and then the Eagles. They would need to win a strength of victory tie-breaker with the Eagles, which would require wins by five of the other six teams.
The Cowboys' pending division title is certain to happen regardless of whether it happens in Week 15 or not. Dallas can make the playoffs with a win and a loss by the other team.
Next stop: at the Giants.
5. The Los Angeles Rams have a winning record.
The chances of FPI making the playoffs are 94%.
4% of the time, the FPI has a chance to win the division.
The Rams need to win Monday night to have a chance of catching the Cards. A victory would put the Rams back in the game. They only have an 8% chance to win the division, given their remaining schedule that includes Vikings, Ravens and 49ers. If the Rams lose, the Cards have a good chance of winning the division.
The Rams have a good chance of making the playoffs if they first beat Arizona on Monday. They would need to win from Atlanta, Minnesota and New Orleans.
Next stop: at the Cards on Monday.
6. The 49ers are 7-6).
There are chances that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There are chances that the FPI will win the division.
The 49ers' overtime victory in Cincinnati gave them a boost. It allowed them to put a game's worth of distance between them and the five teams with 6-7 records, and it has their playoff odds at 79%. The 49ers' odds would have been more than 50% if the Bengals had finished their comeback.
If the 49ers defeat the Falcons, they will be able to put away one of those teams. They have two more games left, against the Rams and the Texans, with a likely "gimme" game against the Texans in between.
Next up: Falcons.
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7. The Washington football team is.
26% of the time, the FPI makes the playoffs.
2% is the chance that the FPI will win the division.
Washington missed a chance to make the conference more interesting when it lost at FedEx Field. Let's face it. Even with a victory, it would only have a 18% chance of winning the division.
Washington is still in the top seven despite Sunday's loss, because it is the wild card. Washington has a 26% chance of getting one of the wild-card spots in the NFC field. It will play one of its competitors twice in the next three weeks.
Next stop: at Eagles.
In the hunt for the nearest store.
The Minnesota Vikings have a losing record.
The Vikings would have been out of the playoff race had the Steelers completed their comeback Thursday night. Things look better now. Anything's possible with two of their four remaining games against the Bears. They have a chance of moving into the top seven at the moment.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a losing record.
The Eagles return from their bye very much in the playoff race and have two games left against Washington. The first will be in Week 15. They have a 34% chance of making the playoffs, the best among the 6-7 teams.
The Atlanta Falcons have a losing record.
The Falcons were undermanned in the first year of coach Arthur Smith's tenure, but they stayed in the race. The games against the 49ers, Bills and Saints might be too big of an obstacle. They have a chance to go to the playoffs.
The New Orleans Saints have a losing record.
The only team the Saints have defeated since the beginning of November is the Jets. They have a 26% chance of making the playoffs.
