The Republican Party has done a better job of alienating young, college-educated voters in recent years. A survey of more than 1,500 students at more than 300 colleges and universities shows that a majority of college-age voters don't think the Republican Party represents them. Sixty-six percent of students don't think they'll be able to register as Republicans in the next 10 years. A majority of respondents think the Republican Party is racist. College Pulse, a firm that specializes in student polling and frequently supplies data to researchers, conducted the poll. Their online surveys are weighted to reflect the national population of college students.
Young, educated voters have favored Democrats for decades, but the gap has grown larger. The survey showed that the Republican Party has become associated with racist, unconstitutional attitudes that strike most students as beyond the pale. They think Republicans are a threat to democracy.
College students don't identify with the Democratic Party so there are signs that this damaging view is not permanent. Only 18 percent of them think the party is moving in the right direction. Democrats benefit from the hatred of Republicans, but the party is not inspiring loyalty.
If Republicans embrace moderate reforms around race, women's health, and the environment, there is a path forward. The dilemma for the party is that it will have to slowly abandon the policies that motivate the older Republican base if it wants to have a chance in the future.
Many analysts think that the future will take a long time. The Republican base of older, non-college, white voters will shrink rapidly in the coming years, leaving the party with a small and aging electorate. In the last eight presidential elections, the party's nominees have lost the popular vote in seven of them, and with Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Ohio becoming younger and more educated, Republicans are at risk of losing their advantage in the Electoral College as well.
Republicans are particularly vulnerable to the gender gap. Women have been more likely to vote for Democrats than men in the past. The most recent elections appear to be similar to this one. Only 8 percent of women identify as strong or weak Republicans, while 42 percent identify as strong or weak Democrats. More of the men identify as strong or weak Democrats, but they are twice as likely to be Republican.
One of the fastest-growing groups of voters and a demographic that has recently been more politically active than men, collegiate women are a group that the Democrats have a decisive advantage with. Young women are more likely to have protested than young men. Young Black and Latina women are more active in social movements than young men, according to research.
A recent survey shows that 52 percent of men and 40 percent of women identify as independents orleaners, which shows a real dislocation from both parties and an opportunity should one party move to court them. This is bad news for the GOP because it shows that women and men are not going to support the party in the future.
The data shows that Republicans can reverse their collapse by abandoning their positions that are unpopular with young voters, such as opposition to gay marriage, climate change denial and anti-mask Extremism. Young, college-educated voters find the Republican positions objectionable. To lay the groundwork for its future, the GOP needs to find a way to compromise on social issues.
The Republican candidates have a dilemma, because the very tactics needed to win elections now are jeopardizing elections of the future. They are notching successes with attacks on race, abortion and environmental regulations, which may win primaries and motivate the current party base, but clearly alienating the voters needed to win general elections going forward.
The recent wins in Virginia and other states will only help the Republicans if they reach beyond the suburban families. The future of American politics will not be determined by the soccer moms or the angry Trump crowds, but by the students.
Our survey shows that young college-educated voters think the Republican Party is a cult. They are almost universally against this cult. They have a higher regard for moderate figures like Romney and Hogan.
People think college students are partisan. They have a bias against the current Republican Party, but they are not solid Democrats. Moderate political figures are in play for them. The party that succeeds nationally will be the one that finds a way to capture the next electoral majority.
