Deadly Tornadoes Were Predicted But 3 Worst-Case Scenarios Played Out

I woke up to horrible news this morning. There have been many deaths in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois and Missouri. In Kentucky alone, Governor Beshear said in an early morning press conference, we're going to lose over 50 people. It's devastating. The worst-case scenarios that worry me all the time are highlighted by this outbreak of tornadoes.

The town courthouse was damaged after a tornado swept through the area. A large path of destruction and unknown fatalities was caused by multiple tornadoes that tore through parts of the lower Midwest late on Friday night. The photo was taken by Brett Carlsen.

The images are from the same company.

I am always worried about the threat of tornadoes in rural or urban areas. My family knows that I check conditions before I go to bed. I make sure that my Wireless Emergency Alert and Weather apps are working if there is a threat of severe weather. I find it hard to sleep. The NWS was aware of the possibility of something bad happening in this region. The main focus of the NWS continues to be the severe weather potential for Friday night. Shear and instability parameters are more favorable for rotating storms. The ingredients were in place. The discussion said that storms are expected to develop sometime Friday evening along or just ahead of the cold front as it approaches the mid Mississippi Valley. During the late evening hours into the overnight hours, shear/instability and QPF appear to be maximized over western Kentucky. This region was identified by the NWS Storm Prediction Center in its one and two-day enhanced to moderate risk areas.

On December 10th, 2021, there was a Severe Weather Outlook.

It's the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

The graphic shows a tornado watch for the region at the beginning of the evening. The Storm Prediction Center updated their radar at 655 pm on Friday, December 10th, and included multiple tornado watches across a broad region. There will be storms with tornadoes and hail through the evening.

There is a tornado on Friday December 10th, 2021.

The NOAA SPC has a page on social media.

Nighttime tornadoes are always a problem. In March, I wrote an article titled, "Brush your teeth and check for tornadoes - a night plan for severe weather is essential." The weather forecast can be perfect, but if people don't receive it, there can be dire consequences. In a paper published by Northern Illinois University, they noted that 27% of tornadoes were nocturnal, but 40% of tornado deaths were during the night. They concluded that tornadoes between midnight and sunrise were 2.5 times more likely to cause deaths. Some of the damage was not just in homes. Many business and industrial operations, like the Amazon warehouse, were impacted.

There were multiple tornadic supercells, and some of them stayed on the ground for a long period of time. A multi-state event with every variety of severe weather, including 32 tornadoes, was suggested by a preliminary report from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Jack Sillin is a student at Cornell University. He told me that the storm was an extremely long-lived supercell thunderstorm that produced one or more strong tornadoes, though the NWS survey teams will need to confirm just how strong it got and whether the tornado lifted at any point. Supercells can travel over long distances, but this one remained so strong for so long in the middle Mississippi-Ohio valley that it is notable and unusual.

The initial storm reports were made on December 11, 2011.

It's the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

The time of the year.

Property damage and deaths are tragedies at any time. Let's say that clearly and clearly. This type of event during the holiday season is just another dagger in an already difficult year with a record Hurricane season and COVID-19. It is important to remember that tornadoes in December are not unusual in the South. People tend to associate tornadoes with the spring season. In every single month, tornadoes can happen. Even if the calendar says it is almost time for Christmas, there is still a threat. There is a map at UStornadoes.com.

If you didn't know what to think of a tornado, it would be perceived as one. Before you go to bed this evening, ask yourself some questions.

Is there a chance for severe weather tonight?
Are my weather radios ready to go?
Is it possible that tornado sirens are not meant to alert me inside of a building?
What should I do if I need to act or shelter?

It is not always black and white. We still have some work to do in making actionable this information for decision makers.