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The mosquitoes can drink up to three times their body weight in a single meal. To reach adulthood, mosquitoes need to be raised in environments where the temperatures are suitable for their growth and development.
The researchers at Texas A&M University have developed a mathematical model that can predict the local temperature within the breeding grounds of the Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which carry the chikungunya and dengue diseases. The temperature may be warm enough in certain breeding grounds to allow mosquitoes to grow.
"Our goal is to develop accurate and automated mathematical models for estimating microclimatic temperature, which can greatly facilitate a quick assessment of mosquito populations and consequently, vector-borne disease transmission," said Madhav Erraguntla, associate professor of practice in the Wm Michael Barnes '64 Department of
Mosquitoes are responsible for a million deaths globally and wreak havoc to public health in many parts of the world. In addition to water, temperature plays a critical role in the life cycle of mosquitoes. The mosquitoes' development, reproduction and survival can be modeled on the basis of temperature.
Past studies have mostly relied on ambient temperature to make predictions about mosquito populations. The calculations have not been precise since the temperatures within the mosquito breeding grounds can change. Scientists rely on data loggers to keep track of the temperature, light intensity and humidity in breeding grounds. These sensors are inconvenient because of their cost and long-term use.
Data loggers are the only way to keep track of temperature, but people have realized that the microclimatic conditions are important. We wanted to automate the process of estimating microclimatic temperatures so that we could model the life cycle of mosquitoes.
The researchers put sensors in the mosquito breeding grounds around Houston, including storm drains, shaded areas and inside water meters. They obtained information on ambient temperatures from a repository. The computer model could predict the microclimatic temperatures for a variety of ambient temperatures and breeding grounds within 1.5 degrees centigrade with this data as training input. The model can now forecast microclimatic temperatures for any temperature, precluding the need for sensors.
They fed the values of the microclimatic temperatures to the population dynamic model, which tracks the life cycle of the mosquitoes. The population dynamic model could be used to estimate the populations at different stages in the lifecycle of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.
The model showed that the insulated conditions of the storm drain could result in the survival of 80% of juvenile and eggs and 98% of adults during the winter months.
The researchers noted that more research is needed to affirm that their model is applicable to places outside of Texas.
The workAutomating the prediction of microclimatic conditions bypassed an otherwise expensive and time-Consuming process of placing the sensors in different breeding spots, collecting the sensor data and analyzing it This work will help epidemiologists better track mosquito-borne disease transmission and surge in mosquito abundance.
The model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling was written by Madhav Erraguntla and his colleagues. There is a DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98316-x.
Scientific reports are in the journal.
The condition of mosquitoes can flourish in winter under the right conditions.
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