In the UK, we have had 30,000 to 50,000 new Covid cases a day and about 1,000 dying from the disease every week, and the hospital and ambulance services are at breaking point. The Omicron variant has arrived. We don't know how much immunity will be evaded by this new variant. We are not sure if it is more transmissible. We don't know if it will cause more severe disease.
What are we to do when we have uncertainty and conflicting messages? Many of us are desperate for fun after the disappointment of last Christmas. We are desperate to avoid them. Should we be making that one stitch now to save nine later, or should we be taking steps now to try to save Christmas? We can only engage in our top priority social events if we wear masks in all indoor public spaces, work from home where we can, only go shopping and travel where we need to, and only go to top priority social events when we need to.
Behavioural scientists wrote about how people could protect themselves during the winter. They show how to make a household plan to protect ourselves and others and how to reduce household transmission during social interactions.
The principles are still in place for this festive season. All social interactions increase the risk of infections. The risk is higher with larger events that last a long time and are held in crowded spaces. The safest place to interact is outdoors. If in-person interactions are essential, consider whether safer forms of interaction can replace them.
It is likely that interactions with people you know are risky. People are more likely to relax and let their guard down, so they may pose greater risks than interactions with those you don't regularly come into contact with. Loud talking, laughing and singing increases the risk of being bitten by a disease. Sadly these are things people enjoy doing at Christmas, but as much as we might like to, we can't avoid these facts.
The risks posed by social interactions can be reduced by making the indoor spaces have good air quality. Large air volumes per person are likely to reduce risk. Reducing the number of people, the time they are together, avoiding close interaction, shouting and singing, and asking everyone to take a test before and after the event will all help.
Everyone will be safer if everyone agrees on a risk mitigated strategy for an event. Planning for events should be done in a way that allows people from different groups to engage and ensures that support is provided to those who are physically and socially vulnerable. It can help educate and protect. The principles of equality and fairness must be at the center of the guidance as measures are more likely to be followed if perceived as fair and just.
The past 19 months have been difficult for us all, and we were looking forward to the holiday season as a time to celebrate with friends and family. Our plans are challenged by Omicron. We can maximize our chances of fulfilling our festive hopes by socializing safely.
The Centre for Behaviour Change is headed by Susan Michie.
