Play.
Mahomes runs for a 10-yard touchdown.
The Broncos' defense was put to the test by Patrick Mahomes, who reached the pylon to score a 10-yard touchdown. (0:30)
11:30 PM.
The word business is running out of ways to say that the picture of the playoffs is chaotic. There are teams near the top that have a good chance of falling out of the race, and there are teams outside the top seven that could still win their division. According to the research, the 2021 NFL playoff race is the first time in 19 years that every team in a conference has at least four losses through 13 games.
The Ravens dropped their fourth game of the season on Sunday, a 20-19 loss to the Steelers that left a logjam of 8-4 teams atop the AFC. The top seed is owned by the patriots. If they lose to the Bills on Monday, they will fall all the way to No. 5. The first playoff elimination of 2021. The Texans lost to the Colts 31-0. After upsetting the Vikings for their first win of the season, the Lions avoided a similar fate.
We will have an update after Monday night's game on the entire playoff picture. We'll combine the Football Power Index with a little bit of human instinct to sketch out where the league is headed. The chaos will return, of course.
Go to:AFC
A group of people.
1. The New England team is 8-5
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 33%.
We have something here. The new era began in the spring of 2020 after the departure of Tom Brady. They're back on top of the league thanks to a superior conference record. The New England team is the hottest in the league with six victories in a row. A loss to the Bills on Monday night would drop them from the top of the conference to second place. In that scenario, the Pats would finish in the top five. Monday night is a big game.
Next stop: at Bills on Monday.
2. The TennesseeTitans are 8-4.
98% of the time, the FPI makes the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 98%.
The Ravens' loss on Sunday was a beneficiary of the Titans. They moved back into contention for home-field advantage after their bye. If the Bills beat the Pats on Monday night, the Tennessee will be the top seed in the playoffs. They'll stay second if the Pats win, but they'll focus on the final stretch, which includes only one game against an opponent with a winning record.
Next up: a game with the Jags.
3. The Baltimore Ravens are 8-5
The chances of the FPI making the playoffs are 84%.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 61%.
It's time for nail-biting in Baltimore. The Ravens lost to the Steelers on Sunday, which knocked them out of the top spot in the conference and left them staring at a very difficult schedule. The Ravens will play four teams with winning records and one with a.500 record in their final five games. The Ravens are in a good position to make the playoffs, but not the top seed. They are still considered the favorites in the AFC North by FPI.
Next stop: at Cleveland.
4. The Kansas City Chiefs are.
The chances of the FPI making the playoffs are 81%.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 42%.
The position the Chiefs were in was crazy. Had they lost to the Broncos, they would have been knocked out of the top seven in the conference. They rode their defense to victory.
They are one game ahead of the Broncos and Raiders in the Broncos' division. They are even with the Ravens in the race for home-field advantage in the conference. It's notable that they are still in the conversation six weeks after they were.
Next up: Raiders.
5. The Buffalo Bills are 4-7.
The chances of FPI making the playoffs are 94%.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 67%.
The Bills have a chance to take back the narrative in the game. If they win, they will be able to draw their record even with the Pats, and the interim head-to-head tiebreaker will elevate them to the top of the conference. That would not be the end of the division race, but it would be a big step. The Bills have a good chance of pulling it off.
Next up: New England.
6. The Los Angeles Clippers (7-5).
There is a 75% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
42% of the time, the FPI has a chance to win division.
One of the hardest teams to figure out in the league is the Bolts. They have lost to the Vikings and Broncos in the past month. They're in the race for the wild-card spot. The win in Cincinnati was important. It gave them a head-to-head advantage over another wild-card competitor, and pushed their conference record to 5-3.
They have two very favorable games left on their schedule, against the Giants in Week 14 and the Texans in Week 16. Is 9-8 a good enough record to get into the playoffs?
Next up is the Giants.
Play.
On the fourth goal. Herbert passes to Allen, who makes the catch for the score.
7. The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-7.
42% of the time, the FPI makes the playoffs.
There is a 23% chance that the FPI will win the division.
There is no way to sugarcoat it. A big opportunity was missed by the Bengalers on Sunday. Had they beaten the Bolts at home, they would have pulled even with the Ravens in the division and set up a final-month race to the title. They would have passed over one of their competitors. With all five of their remaining opponents at.500 or better, they're less than a chance to make the playoffs.
The next game is against the 49ers.
In the hunt for the football team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-5-1.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still in the race for the playoffs, but they have a quick turn to play Thursday night at the Vikings, and they are only a small chance of making the playoffs.
The Indianapolis Colts are 4-7.
The Colts got back over.500 with a win over the Texans. The Colts will face a run of games against the Raiders, Raiders, and the Pats when they return from their bye. They have a good chance of making the playoffs.
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-6.
The Raiders have lost three of their past four games, and Sunday's loss to Washington may have been the last time they wrote anything. Four of their five remaining opponents have a winning record, beginning with their Week 14 game at the Chiefs. They have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.
The Cleveland Browns are 3-6.
In a weird twist, the Cleveland Browns will return to play the same opponent they faced in Week 13 after a bye. They have a 22% chance of making the playoffs.
Here's how the playoffs looks at the moment and what might happen in the future.
Who is currently in the playoffs?
The Playoff Machine is a program on the ESPYS.
The Football Power Index is a measure of standings.
The Denver Broncos are 6-6)
The Broncos could have taken over the lead in the division with a win. They fell back in the pack after they couldn't muster an offense. The Broncos have just a small chance of making the playoffs as they prepare for a Week 14 game against the Lions.
The Miami Dolphins have a losing record.
The Dolphins have won five games in a row heading into their bye and will have a favorable game against the Jets in Week 15. They'll finish the regular season with games against theTitans andPatriots, and that's why they only have a small chance of making the playoffs.
The NFC is a part of the game.
1. The ArizonaCardinals are 10-2
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 98%.
After their bye week, the Cards were in better shape than they were before, and now they can make the playoffs with a win in Week 14. With Kyler Murray back at quarterback, and DeAndre Hopkins back at receiver, they were able to win in Chicago. The Packers and the Buccaneers have more difficult schedules than the Cardinals, as they still have to face three teams with winning records.
The only team in the league that is perfect on the road is the Cards, who are 2-0 at home. Three of their final five games are at State Farm Stadium.
Next up is the Rams.
2. The Green Bay Packers are 9-3.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Packers sat back on their bye week on Sunday and saw their advantage grow. The Packers have five games left and are 888-405-7720 888-405-7720 It has been a while since we thought about anyone other than the Packers winning the division. A win and a Vikings loss at Pittsburgh next weekend could be the moment.
The Packers have one game left against a team with a winning record. The question is whether they can overtake the Cards for the top seed. They have a 30% chance to do it.
Next up: Bears.
3. The Buccaneers are 9-3).
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will win the division.
Following a two-game losing streak at the start of the year, the Buccaneers have won three in a row. They were able to match the Packers' record after Sunday's victory over the Falcons. They are the third seed because of a one-game deficit in the conference record.
The four-game lead in the NFC South is more relevant. The Packers' scenario is more complicated than the three teams behind them. If the Falcons and Saints lose, it will happen for the Bucs. It's a matter of time. The team with the best record in the division will win the division based on the projections.
Next up is the Bills.
Play.
Tom Brady lofts a pass to the corner of the end zone to Rob Gronkowski, who makes the catch for a touchdown.
4. The Dallas Cowboys are.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 90 percent.
It wasn't pretty, but the Cowboys snapped a two-game losing streak Thursday night in New Orleans and took another step toward locking down the NFC East title. We should probably refrain from judging the way the Cowboys played because of the absence of five coaches, including head coach Mike McCarthy, and two players because of COVID-19 protocols. They have two games left against the Washington Football Team.
Next stop: Washington.
5. The Los Angeles Rams have a winning record.
There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
3% is the chance that the FPI will win the division.
What should be expected of a legitimate playoff contender is that they dominated the Jaguars at home. Let's not assume that the issues that caused the three-game losing streak have been solved by the Rams. They will play at Arizona in Week 14. Can they really overtake the Cards in the end? It seems highly unlikely on multiple fronts.
The Rams are a near lock to be a wild-card team, based on their performance against the Jags.
Next stop: at the Cards.
6. The Washington Football Team is 3-6.
42% of the time, the FPI has a chance to make the playoffs.
There is a chance that the FPI will win the division.
Washington's victory over the Raiders was their fourth in a row and their fourth win of the season. Things are starting to get interesting. The Cowboys will be in Washington in the next three weeks. It can ensure a division title by winning out, and other combinations of wins and losses could also do it as well.
Let's not get carried away. It will be a challenge to beat the Cowboys twice in the final five games. It has a 7% chance. Washington's spot in the wild-card race is not assured with two games remaining against the Eagles.
Next up: Cowboys.
It's free to play. Pick winners against the spread and you can win more than $13,000 in prizes.
7. San Francisco 49ers are 3-6.
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
There are chances that the FPI will win the division.
The 49ers missed on a chance to add some heft to their wild-card status Sunday in Seattle, losing a mistake-filled game that left them more vulnerable to a challenge from the Eagles or one of the three other teams that are within one game of this spot. One of the most difficult schedules remaining for a wild-card contender. The Falcons and Texans are both home games for the Rams and theTitans. The quality of opponents in the 49ers remaining away games are formidable.
Next stop: at Cincinnati.
In the hunt for the nearest store.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a losing record.
The Eagles' remaining schedule isn't as friendly as it once looked, but Sunday's route against the Jets kept them in position to pounce if either of the wild-card teams stumbles. The first two games of the season are against Washington in Week 15 and Week 14. Philadelphia has a 38% chance of making the playoffs.
The Minnesota Vikings are 4-7.
The Vikings played soft zone defense in giving up a last-play touchdown to the winless Lions, and the league should create a rule to prevent them from playing in the playoffs. It's the only fair thing to do. The Vikings are not out of it as they seem and will host the Steelers on Thursday night. They are still at 26% to make the playoffs.
The Carolina Panthers are 4-7.
Joe Brady was fired by the Carolinas over the weekend. Some will think it's a sign that their season is over, while others think it's a sign that they can get back into the playoffs. We'll lean toward the former, even as the Falcons come to town in Week 14. Carolina has a 3% chance of making the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are 4-7.
The Falcons have lost four of their past six games. Their only victories since October have been against the Saints and the hapless Jags. There isn't much reason to think the Falcons will surge in the coming weeks, despite the fact that they are a beatable opponent in Week 14. Atlanta has a small chance of making the playoffs.
The New Orleans Saints have a losing record.
The Saints would have moved into the 7 spot had they won Thursday night. They lost a winnable game and now have a 22% chance of making the playoffs.
