The race is on to understand the new variant identified by scientists in South Africa and Botswana, dubbed Omicron-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern, but this could have been mistaken for new. There are fears of greater spread, worse disease or reduced effectiveness of treatments.
There are two factors that can lead to increased transmission. The average number of people each case infections in a susceptible population has become a notional concept after 20 months of the Pandemic. It was around 3 for the original wild-type virus, compared to 6 for Delta and possibly more for Omicron.
Second, a variant can show better evasion of existing immunity. The country has already experienced three major waves and an estimated 270,000 excess deaths since May 2020. Both confirmed cases and test positivity have increased despite the wall of immunity. Increased ability to evade immunity is concerning and could arise from different combinations of these two factors.
There are some claims that Omicron infections mean milder cases, but it is difficult to assess quickly because of the lags between infection and attending hospital. Increased transmissibility means more cases generation after generation and even a reduced share going to hospital may still result in more admissions. The risk of reinfection is much higher than it was in the first wave.
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The scientists want a balanced UK response to Omicron concerns.
There is a warning behind the scenes of no 10-o-micron-covid-policy.
It's reasonable to be cautious with these possibilities and wait for basic uncertainties to be resolved. The variant can be monitored from its specific pattern of test results and an army of scientists is already planning 20 studies. Soon this article will be history.
The age of Omicron has begun, judging by the domination of the variant in South African sequence.
The Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication is chaired by David Spiegelhalter. The Royal Statistical Society has a statistical ambassador.
