It was supposed to be Australia's summer of hope.
With vaccination rates against Covid-19 high, international travel restarting, and most states opening domestic borders in time for Christmas, it was time for life to return to normal.
There was still uneasiness. Even as vaccination rates rise, parts of the world are still in the grip of a fourth Covid wave. Experts hoped that Australia's high vaccination rates, warm summer, and readiness to reintroduce restrictions like masks would allow a more normal way of life into the new year.
The Omicron variant arrived. Australia closed its borders again, creating uncertainty and chaos, as urgent talks were held about the variant. Many people are wondering when and how the epidemic will end.
Prof Nancy Baxter is the head of the University of Melbourne's school of population health.
The hope is that Covid-19 becomes endemic, and that it becomes a constant presence in the general population thanks to high rates of immunity, and that it doesn't spread beyond specific pockets of the population.
The question is when this will happen. She says that depends on a number of factors, such as how long immunity lasts after vaccination and if recurring booster shots will be needed.
It depends on looking beyond our yard. If the fourth wave didn't do it, Omicron made it clear that the end of the Pandemic isn't as simple as it sounds.
Many health experts think that Omicron emerged because people with weakened immune systems are more likely to remain in contact with Covid-19 for a long time.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where the Omicron variant was first detected, and where Covid-19 vaccination rates are also woefully low, these long infections have been seen in patients with advanced, untreated HIV. Researchers argued in an opinion piece for Nature that vaccine equity and access to treatment for HIV in Africa could help the world see fewer Covid variants emerge.
Australia and New Zealand are two of the countries that refuse to give citizenship to people with HIV.
The best way for governments to protect their citizens is not by stigmatising those with HIV, but by quickly providing vaccines to protect the world's most vulnerable. Only global solidarity will end the Covid-19 epidemic.
Even if Omicron proves less severe, Covid-19 will find its way into vulnerable populations, and spread, until health equity is achieved.
Prof Dominic Dwyer, director of the Pathology West at the New South Wales Health Department, says that a weaker virus might be problematic in countries that don't have good healthcare.
Delta is spreading throughout the world in the face of international travel restrictions, and border closings don't work for long.
When the World Health Organization declares the end of a disease, it is difficult to say that it is finished. Some countries might declare it over for them at different times despite what WHO says. This happened when Covid first emerged, with some countries introducing measures before the WHO declared one.
As time goes on and people get vaccinations, Covid-19 will become a background, ordinary seasonal viral infection throughout the world, though he said this was impossible to predict with certainty.
The end of a disease may mean different things to different people. Some may feel like it has ended only when they can travel and visit their favorite places. When they don't have to wear a mask again, others may feel like it's over. It's possible that masks are here to stay for those showing symptoms of a disease. The leader of the Kirby Institute's group of infection epidemiology and policy analysts said that it would be up to the governments to decide.
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Even as restrictions are lifted, the end of the Pandemic may not feel close to over for people who aren't effective.
It is important to remember that even after the Pandemic is over, there may still be worse years than others.
She says that we don't close borders because of flu. People from a country with a bad flu epidemic are not put in hotel quark. We can handle it on the health system.
I think we will get there with Covid. I think it will require booster vaccinations for people who aren't vaccine-free, and people who have had the virus multiple times to have enough natural protection.
It is important to remember how far we have come since 2020, with vaccinations and treatments now available, even though the end date for this Pandemic may be difficult to predict.
She said that we can't lose sight of the progress that has been made. We are not at the end yet. Two years ago, we were in a much worse position.
