Do Covid vaccine mandates work?

Some countries are considering making Covid jabs compulsory for the general population.

Which countries are giving mandatory Covid vaccinations?

Germany may follow Austria in making Covid jabs mandatory. Greece has already announced mandatory jabs for the over-60s, while Indonesia and Turkmenistan have made Covid jabs mandatory.

Why are they doing this?

In the face of rising levels of Covid that have led to the introduction of severe measures including lockdowns, many countries are considering mandatory vaccination of the general population.

The number of new Covid cases in Germany has hit a record high in recent weeks and many hospitals are under severe strain.

Hans Kluge, the WHO's Europe director, said that the situation faced by Europe and central Asia is down to a number of factors, including insufficient vaccination coverage and the relaxation of public health and social measures.

He said last month that most people in hospitals and dying from Covid-19 are not fully vaccined.

The emergence of the variant Omicron has added to concerns given early signs it may be more transmissible than Delta and have some ability to dodge the body's immune responses, leading many countries to ramp up efforts to ensure the population is as well protected as possible through vaccination. The best way to do this is with mandatory Covid jabs.

Is it possible that mandatory vaccinations work?

Vaccines against Covid have been shown to be safe and effective, and may reduce the need for social measures such as lockdowns. The potential to increase the level of take up is only one of the benefits of mandatory vaccinations. The level of opposition is one of the factors that affects how well such programmes work.

Italy, the US and Australia have shown that vaccine mandates work. Will they work for Covid? The director of the Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics at the University of Oxford said that there was more uncertainty in the public about long-term safety profile.

Italy had 10 mandatory vaccines for children, with some evidence suggesting the laws have had a positive impact on vaccine take up. The Asset project found no link between mandatory vaccinations and vaccine use.

In April, the World Health Organization said it does not support the direction of mandates for Covid-19 vaccination, having argued that it is better to work on information campaigns and making vaccines accessible.

The executive director of WHO Europe said last month that conversations on the compulsory jabs needed to be had. He said that vaccinations can increase the number of people who take them.

Is there a downside to mandatory vaccinations?

There are concerns that it may undermine public confidence in public health measures.

The main problem is public backlash, increase in polarisation, and the possibility of political parties gaining ground on the anti-vaxx ticket, according to Dr.Samantha Vanderslott of the Oxford Vaccine Group. She said that it might ignore the improvement of vaccine services.

Savulescu pointed out some concerns. Liberty should only be restricted to the least extent necessary in order to maintain public confidence in government. If mandatory policies were brought in, it would be hard to justify treating unvaccinated people differently to people who smoke, drink alcohol, eat unhealthily, or exercise.

The Austrian and German proposals to make it mandatory for all adults to have a vaccine is more ethically defensible than the Greek approach, he said.

Will the UK introduce mandatory jabs?

Sajid Javid said the UK wouldn't ever look at mandatory vaccinations for the general public.

While the UK decided to make Covid jabs a condition of work for frontline health and social care workers, mandatory vaccination of the general population would be a very different matter.

The situation faced by the UK is different to other countries in Europe.

The UK has a high level of immunity. Savulescu said that it has good protection of the elderly, who are the main group putting pressure on hospitals, and that data from the Office for National Statistics suggests that in early November 92.8% of adults in England would have had an immunity to Covid. Austria has much lower coverage than the UK, so there is not a lot of point to a mandatory policy.