I'm outside at my farm talking to my neighbors who I've invited over to look at the night sky through my telescope.
Our conversation inevitably turns to the Pandemic, our work-from- home arrangements, and complaints about rural internet after exclamations and open-mouthed wonder over the rings and light that has been travelling through space for more than two million years. My neighbor casually mentions that they have switched to using Starlink for their internet provider.
I notice a bright satellite moving across the sky, almost certainly a Starlink, since they now make up almost half of the nearly 4,000 operational satellites. I take a deep breath and think about how to talk about the cost of Starlink internet.
I don't think my neighbors are to blame. There aren't great internet options here, and with many people working and taking classes from home during the Pandemic, anything that makes life easier is accepted.
I know how high this cost could be. My paper is about what the night sky will look like if satellite companies follow through on their plans.
The most affected part of the world will be 50 degrees north, where I live, because of the geometry of sunlight.
With no regulation, I know that in the near future, one out of every 15 points you can see in the sky will be satellites. This will change the night sky around the world.
We built an open-source computer model to predict satellite brightnesses at different times of the night, in different seasons, in order to find out how badly the night sky is going to be affected by sunlight reflected from planned satellite megaconstellations.
The web app we built was based on the simulation.
Our model uses over 60,000 satellites on the orbits filed by four megaconstellation companies. Since Starlink satellites are the most numerous, we adjusted our simulation to match telescope measurements.
Since their first launch, Starlink has made some progress in dimming their satellites, but most are still visible to the naked eye.
Our simulations show that in every season, there will be hundreds of satellites visible for at least an hour before sunrise and after sunset.
Our simulations show that it's not easy to escape satellite light pollution at the North Pole, even though it's relatively easy to escape urban light pollution for dark skies.
It will be 50 degrees north and south of my own home, which is near cities like London, Amsterdam, Berlin, Prague, and Kiev. There will be close to 200 satellites visible to the naked eye all night long on the summer solstice.
The belt of small bodies beyond Neptune is studied by me. To learn about the history of our Solar System, my research relies on long time-exposure, wide-field images.
The telescope observations that are important to learning about the Universe are going to get harder because of unregulated development of space.
The time and effort that should be paid for by megaconstellation companies is what Astronomers are creating.
Environmental costs are unknown.
Starlink internet might appear cheaper than other options, but this is because many costs are off loaded. There are hundreds of rocket launches required to build and maintain this system.
Satellite deployment dumps spent rocket bodies and other debris into low Earth orbit, increasing collision risks. The parts of the globe with the highest overhead satellite densities are most likely to be impacted by space junk eventually falling back to Earth.
After five years of operation, Starlink will need to de-orbit an average of 25 satellites per day, six tons of material. The satellites will be deposited in the upper atmosphere.
Satellites comprise mostly aluminum alloy, which may cause them to form alumina particles in the upper atmosphere, potentially destroying ozone and causing global temperature changes.
This is not currently being studied in-depth because it is not subject to any environmental regulations.
The sky is being regulated.
Low Earth orbit, where all of the satellites are planned to operate, is almost completely unregulated. There are no rules about light pollution, atmospheric pollution from launches, or atmospheric pollution from re-entry.
The megaconstellations might not be financially viable over the long term, and internet speeds may slow to a crawl when many users connect at the same time or when it rains.
Even if the operators go bankrupt, the damage they do to the night sky, the atmosphere and the safety of low Earth orbit will not be undone.
Rural and remote internet users have been left behind by internet infrastructure development. There are many other options for internet delivery that will not result in such high costs.
We can't accept the loss of access to the night sky, which we've been able to see and connect with for as long as we've been human.
With co-operation, we could have fewer satellites. By changing the design of satellites, they could be made much fainter and have less impact on the night sky. We should not have to choose between astronomy and the internet.
Without regulations or strong pressure from consumers, our view of the stars will soon be changed forever.
The assistant professor of astronomy is from the University ofRegina.
The Conversation's article is a Creative Commons licensed one. The original article can be found here.
