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Is Mac Jones a good fantasy quarterback late in the season?
Mac Jones' performance against theTitans makes him a reliable and relevant fantasy quarterback late in the season. (0:46)
We are in the body-of-work zone for the league's first-year players, as of 12 weeks into the 2021 season. Some of the rookies have flashed one week and felt every challenge in the book, while others have been derailed by injuries. There is a new No. 1 in the third rookies rankings. The Dallas Cowboys have a versatile, impactful and busy player in the form of their middle linebacker, who has played almost all of the team's defensive snaps.
Mac Jones is the only first-year passer to crack the top 10, and he is one of six who were selected in the first round. It's not about a flash here, a big play there and a mistake over there, it's about play from the beginning of the season. The degree of difficulty in what these players are being asked to do and how they've handled it is what matters.
We asked personnel executives around the league to give their thoughts and we worked our way through the game tape to make the top 10 list. We include who missed the list and a few other names to keep handy. We looked to two experts to find the best value bet for the rookies of the year: Doug Kezirian of theChalk.com and the Stats & Information'sSeth Walder.
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Notes on the top 10.
Value bets are under the radar.
1. The Dallas Cowboys have an ILB/DE named Micah Parsons.
11 starts, 67 tackles, 9.0 sacks, 2 forced turnovers.
The 12th pick in the draft.
The pass rush win rate is tied for third in the league among all players, and that's just part of the equation. He has played both inside and on the edge, and he has the most tackles of any player in the league who has at least nine sacks. Over the past four games, he has 14 quarterback hits.
2. Mac Jones is a quarterback for the New England patriots.
There were 12 starts, 2,850 passing yards, 16 touchdown and 8 intercepts.
The 15th pick in the draft.
The team has won six games in a row and seven of the past eight after Jones was thrown into the deep end of the pool. Over the past six games, he has thrown three picks up, after six over the first eight. He has the best infrastructure around him, but his decision-making and penchant for getting the ball out on time has been spot on. Over the past seven games, Jones has completed 70.3% of his passes, with six or fewer incompletions.
3. The Denver Broncos have a CB named Pat Surtain II.
10 starts, 3 INTs, 11 passes defended, 1 touchdown.
9 overall was drafted.
Broncos coach Vic Fangio said this week that defensive backs should be considered for the Defensive Freshman of the Year, because of the way they are playing. His pick-six in Week 12 was the first of his career, and he has consistently played with discipline in the variety of the Broncos' zone looks and matched up in man coverage. This season, Surtain has surrendered just 5.7 yards per target.
4. The Los Angeles Chargers have Rashawn Slater.
The pass block win rate was 89.7%.
13 overall was drafted.
The pass block win rate is the best among rookies. He has played 759 snaps this season and has been ranked among the league's top rookies by personnel evaluators around the league.
5. Creed Humphrey is a member of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The pass block win rate was 97.3%.
63 overall was drafted.
Humphrey's 97.3% pass block win rate is the best among the league's linemen, and he has not been forced to work in pass protection in space. He has surrendered one sack and has allowed more than one pressure in two games.
6. The Las Vegas Raiders have a CB.
7 starts, 51 tackles, 3 QB hits, 1 pass defended, 1.0 sacks, and 1 forced fumbled.
167 overall was drafted.
The Raiders are last in the league in red zone defense and goal-to-go defense, and they are 30th in scoring defense. The slot corner work of Hobbs isn't the problem. He's physical at the point of attack in the run game, while his balance has helped him limit catches when targeted. He needs to turn that positioning into more plays on the ball, as he has no turnovers and one pass defended, but his dependability will go a long way.
One of the bright spots for the Raiders' defense has been the rookies.
7. The Atlanta Falcons have a tight end.
45 catches, 661 receiving yards and 1 touchdown.
The 4th pick in the draft.
Since his back-to-back 100 yard games in October, he has had three games with less than 30 yards receiving. So what? The guy is still one of the best rookies in the league, and if the Falcons had Calvin Ridley or Hayden Hurst in the lineup, defenses wouldn't be able to spend so much time around him, especially in the red zone. This season, he has 14.7 yards per catch.
8. Ja'Marr Chase is a receiver for Cincinnati.
50 catches, 902 receiving yards and 8 touchdown catches.
5 overall was drafted.
Chase's peak thus far this season may have been the best of any first-year player, but it's body-of-work time. Veteran defensive backs test rookies at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point, as well as rookies at the catch point. As the season wears on, Chase is getting fewer wins in situations where he was winning the ball more often in September. He's going over 1,000 yards soon, and his 18.1 yards per catch is third in the league.
9. The ILB for the Cleveland Browns is Jeremiah Owosu-Koramoah.
6 starts, 49 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 passes defended, 2 QB hits
52 overall was drafted.
Since his return from an ankle injury in Week 10, Owosu- Koramoah has shown his speed and ability to play multiple roles for the defense. His performance in the loss to the Ravens was his best of the season.
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10. Jevon Holland is with the Miami Dolphins.
9 starts, 46 tackles, 2 INTs, 2.0 sacks, 7 passes defended, 5 QB hits.
36 overall was drafted.
I see a different player on the game film from Week 5, and it's easy to see that he is comfortable in all that he is asked to do in the Dolphins' defense. Holland is an active and consistent player, and he is the most likely to make a tackle in this loaded rookies class. He has averaged 7.5 yards on 11 punt returns over the past six games, and he impacts a game in many ways.
Just missed.
Odafe Oweh is a Baltimore Ravens player.
There are times when Oweh is simply amazing, and as he continues to put more and more of those moments together in the same game, his impact will continue to rise. He has just one or two tackles in five games, but he has five quarterback hits in the past three games.
Smith is a receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Smith has carved out some impact plays as the Eagles have leaned more on the run game. He scored three times in the back-to-back games against the Broncos.
Javonte Williams is a running back for the Denver Broncos.
Williams drags tacklers on his runs. He's second among the rookies in rushing yards and is tied for the lead in yards per carry. He has been targeted at least four times in three of the past five games.
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Matthew Berry calls Javonte Williams 1A and Melvin Gordon 1B in the Broncos' backfield.
The ILB for the Kansas City Chiefs is Nick Bolton.
The second-round pick might not have the coverage skills to be a full-time player in the league. This season has been a challenge for him when it comes to that part of the game. Replacing Anthony Hitchens resulted in 15-tackle and 11-tackle games. His snap count has dipped, but when the Chiefs keep him around the line of scrimmage, he has been effective.
Newsome is a CB for the Cleveland Browns.
He missed two games early in the season with a calf injury, but has played with composure. Many evaluators were interested in his work against the wide receiver in Week 9.
Christian Barmore is a player for the New England patriots.
Barmore has been on the field for between 42% and 76% of the team's defensive snaps this season. His 7.8% pass rush win rate is the best among rookies, and he is disruptive.
Najee Harris is a running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Harris has been productive even as the Pittsburgh's offense continues to contract, being 22nd in total offense, 28th in rushing and 30th on third down. He has six games this season with 16 or fewer carries, despite his potential to produce with more opportunities.
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Matthew Berry doesn't care about Najee Harris in fantasy.
Keep an eye on: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Los Angeles Clippers; Kwity Paye, DE, Indianapolis Colts; Baron Browning, LB, Denver Broncos.
There are other notes.
Washington tackle Sam Cosmi has had an vexed season. Cosmi has missed five games this year with injuries, including a hip injury in Week 11 that forced Washington to place him on injured reserve Monday.
The Broncos are third in the league in scoring defense, ninth in total defense and 10th in red zone defense. Baron Browning has started the past four games, while Surtain has started since Week 2. Linebacker Jonathon Cooper, a seventh-round pick, has started three games, and safety Caden Sterns, a fifth-round pick, has played in the dime for most of the season.
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Walder's rookies are under the radar.
Pete Werner is an ILB for the New Orleans Saints.
He hasn't played a lot of defensive snaps, but he has been effective on the field. If we lower the threshold to 75 plays with a win or a loss, we will see that he is third in the run stop win rate behind Cleveland's Owosu-Koramoah and Houston's Cunningham. In coverage, Werner has allowed more yards per coverage snap than the average for linebackers with at least 100 coverage snaps.
Kezirian bet on the rookies of the year.
Ja'Marr Chase is a receiver for Cincinnati.
Chase is currently worth +230 for the offensive rookies of the year. The award is not for quarterbacks and Mac Jones is a -300 favorite. Chase is one of the league's best at his position, and if Jones does not perform well, Chase will win.
