Play.
The Colts are poised to make the playoffs.
The Colts are expected to finish the season strong and make the playoffs. The song is called (1:08).
6:30 AM
Confidence and the power rankings go hand in hand. We decided to give weekly confidence ratings to let the fans know how we feel about each team after every game, because we're confident about how we rank teams each week. With two-thirds of the season over, it's time to check on the progress of each reporter's confidence rankings.
We did this six weeks ago, with the reporters tackling a "how it started vs. how it's going" theme, and now we have more information. We are looking at how reporters rated their teams after Week 6 and how confident they are about them now. Some feel good about how the season has evolved, while others aren't so fond of the teams they cover. Some people have the same confidence they had six weeks ago, but there are huge variations in between.
Our power panel, made up of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities, evaluates how teams stack up throughout the season.
The previous rankings were as follows: 12; 11; 10; 9; 8; 7; 6; 5; 4; and 2.
Jump to:
Ari, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, and CIN are included.
DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, and IND are abbreviations.
The following cities are included: JAX, KC, LV, LAC, LAR, MIA.
NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, and SF are not included.
*SEA, TBR, TEN, WSH
There is a method for this.
1. The Green Bay Packers are 9-3.
The previous ranking was 2.
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.5.
How it is going now.
The Packers are going to be the favorites on most days if they have Rodgers, even if he has a broken toe. The offense is similar to the one that led the NFL in scoring. The Packers have scored over 30 points in each of the past two weeks, and now have a bye week to get a little healthier for a stretch run that includes only two more road games.
Play.
Mike Golic Jr. is not sure if Kliff Kingsbury would leave the Arizona Cardinals for the Oklahoma Sooners.
2. The Arizona Cardinals are 9-2
The previous ranking was 1
The week 6 confidence rating was 9.4.
How it's going right now.
Losing two out of three games will cause a team to lose confidence, but Arizona regained that confidence by beating the 49ers and Seahawks with backup quarterback Colt McCoy. The loss to the Packers in Week 8 is a cause for concern since there is a good chance Arizona could see Green Bay in the playoffs.
3. The Buccaneers are 8-3).
The previous ranking was 6.
The week 6 confidence rating was 8.0.
How it is going now.
Despite being decimated by injuries and struggling on the road, the Bucs keep finding ways to win. On the other hand, injuries are bound to happen on a team with aging veterans. The experience of players such as Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette and Lavonte David can't be overstated when it comes to come-from-behind wins.
4. The Baltimore Ravens are 8-3.
The previous ranking was 8.
The week 6 confidence rating was 9.0.
How it is going now.
The Ravens have the best record in the league, but they haven't looked their best in climbing to the top spot. Baltimore has lost by an average of 24 points per game over the past five games with Lamar Jackson as its starter, and it has only scored two points in two of those games. If Jackson gets back on track, the Ravens could become a dangerous team down the stretch.
Play.
Stephen A. Smith wants to see Lamar Jackson's performance in the playoffs.
5. The New England team is 8-5
The previous ranking was 9.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
How it is going now.
New England has won six games in a row. The second best in the NFL is due in part to the fact that the Pats were minus 3 in the turnover differential after Week 6. That's a good place to start when considering how the Pats have turned their season around and why my confidence rating has gone up.
6. The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-4
The previous ranking was 7.
The week 6 confidence rating was 6.0.
How it is going now.
Over the past four games, the Chiefs have allowed fewer than 12 points. It looked as if the Chiefs would not be competitive on defense for a long time, but if this continues, they will be winnable the rest of the way. The offense has only scored 20 points in the past five games, and one bad day for the defense could blow up the plans of the team.
7. The Buffalo Bills are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 12.
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.8.
How it is going now.
The rating hasn't changed much because the Bills haven't defeated a big-time opponent since Week 5. The Bills have lost to the Colts and the Jags, but have beaten the Dolphins, Jets and Saints.
Since the beginning of October, Buffalo has not been able to stack wins. The offense needs to establish more of a identity and show that it can be effective. Two upcoming games against the Pats and a contest in the city of Tampa will be telling.
8. The TennesseeTitans are 8-4.
The previous ranking was 3.
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.5.
It's going at 7.5.
Injuries have been the major change for the team. They have 86 players this season, which is an NFL record. The approach can only go so far. The past two weeks have been very hard. It's a recipe for back-to-back losses if there's zero takeaways and nine turnovers. There is still reason to be confident because of how well the Titans ran against the Pats. Tennessee's foundation is running despite the absence of Henry. Getting A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back down the line will help a lot. The defense has shown it can be game-changing once Bud Dupree returns.
9. The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 13
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.
How it is now: 6.7
After an upset loss to the Jets and a huge defeat to the Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati team is now one of the biggest question marks in the league. A team with a playoff aspiration had a wobble. After an off week, Cincinnati has cobbled together back-to-back wins and seems to have found its form again. "We knew we could have gotten that back when we were in the middle of the season," Taylor said. We had a little hiccup, but these guys have a lot of confidence.
10. The Dallas Cowboys are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 5.
The week 6 confidence rating was 9.1.
How it is going now.
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Transactions and injuries.
Football Power Index rankings.
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When you lose three of four games, your confidence goes down. The Cowboys have lost to Denver, Kansas City and Las Vegas, so they don't play in the West. The ground game has been stagnant. Defenses have interrupted the pass game with aggressive play outside, which has led to the holding of the ball by the quarterback.
The Cowboys' defense has given up a lot of big plays, but now it can't come up with key stops and has too many penalties. Greg Zuerlein missed a field goal against the Raiders. He needs to be more consistent. The good feelings that came out of a Halloween win at Minnesota without a quarterback have started to leak out.
11. The Los Angeles Rams are 7-4
The previous ranking was 4.
The confidence rating for Week 6 was 8.4.
How it is going now.
The Rams are 0-6 against teams with winning records. They are in the midst of a three-game losing streak for the second time in Sean McVay's five seasons as coach. Matthew Stafford has thrown three passes that have been picked up and returned for a touchdown in the losing streak, and has committed six turnovers in the same period. On defense, opponents have schemed their way to avoid the likes of Von Miller and Leonard Floyd while also keeping plays away from Jalen Ramsey. Special teams has a long streak of lackluster play. With six games remaining, a roster built for a Super Bowl is in the wrong direction.
12. The San Francisco 49ers lost.
The previous ranking was 14.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.8.
How it is going now.
The 49ers lost to Arizona in Week 9. The Niners have won three in a row and four of their past five, and they are currently in the sixth spot in the playoff picture. If they don't make the playoffs, it will be a surprise, but this confidence rating should only go up.
Nick Bosa, Mac Jones, andTrevor Lawrence are on the show.
13. The Indianapolis Colts are 6-6)
The previous ranking was 10.
The week 6 confidence rating was 4.8.
How it is going now.
Give the Colts a team with a losing record and they will be able to win. Things are vastly different if they face a team with a winning mark. The Colts have defeated teams with losing records. Buffalo is the only team that has beaten Indianapolis this season. The Colts have blown leads against several teams. The Colts' final five games are against teams with winning records, so making the playoffs is less and less likely as the weeks go on.
14. The Raiders are from Las Vegas.
The previous ranking was 20.
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.5.
How it is going now.
The Raiders are coming off of a Thanksgiving win at Dallas, in which quarterback Derek Carr seemed to emerge from a post-bye slump, as he was more aggressive in attacking the Cowboys' defense. Carr and the Raiders need to string together a few more positive weeks to get their confidence back. Next, Washington should give that opportunity. Again, should.
15. The Denver Broncos are 5-5.
The previous ranking was 22.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.5.
How it is going now.
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What we learned in week 12.
The Broncos were 3-4 after Week 7. They have won three of their past four. If the team keeps the quarterback under center close to half the time, use more play-action and commit to the run game, then it's possible that they can keep their playoff hopes alive. The win over the Chargers was an example.
The Broncos are 6-0 when the quarterbacks are under center, and average just over 30 rushing attempts. All of their pass completions of at least 40 yards in those games. The team is 0-5 when they line up in the shotgun most of the time.
16. The Los Angeles Bolts are 5-5.
The previous ranking was 11.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.7.
How it is going now.
The up-and-down Chargers can't win consistently. One week they're great, the next week they're terrible. They beat Philadelphia 27-24, then lost to Minnesota 27-20, then beat Pittsburgh 41-37, and then lost to the Broncos 28-13. Someone needs to step up at running back. There was no one to fill in when Austin Ekeler was in the concussion protocol. Larry Rountree III has 36 carries for 87 yards, while Justin Jackson has 14 carries for 103 yards. The second-best runner is QB Justin Herbert. He needs options. They might make the playoffs, but it's not good for them to go far.
17. The Cleveland Browns are 3-6.
The previous ranking was 15.
The week 6 confidence rating was 6.0.
How it is going now.
The offense fell off a cliff. The offense ranks 24th in efficiency, 25th in expected points added, 19th in yards per play, 24th in third-down conversion rate and 26th in first downs per game. The injuries have had an impact on Baker's performance. The running game is starting to lose steam. Cleveland is still alive in the playoffs. The way the offense is playing, it's hard to see the Browns making a serious push.
18. The Minnesota Vikings are 5-5.
The previous ranking was 16.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
6.0 is how it is going now.
The Minnesota's 34-26 loss at San Francisco dropped its playoff chances from 80% to 40%. The Vikings have surpassed the hardest stretch of their schedule and are in good position for the playoffs, so my confidence rating is higher than it was in Week 6. Even with a manageable stretch to close out the schedule, nothing feels completely stable with a team whose narrative flipflops from playoff contender to a group in need of a complete overhaul with every win and loss, respectively.
Play.
Stephen A. Smith believes that Ben Roethlisberger should hang up his gun.
19. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-5.
The previous ranking was 17
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
How it is going now.
The Pittsburgh's flaws were the focus of the Week 12 loss to Cincinnati. They can't stop the run. In Week 6 of the season, the Steelers weren't stopping the run well, but they still found a way to beat the Seahawks thanks to a big game from running back Najee Harris. In their last four games, the Steelers have given up an average of 180 yards per game. The run game of the Steelers is also disappearing. They have the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league and the third-worst yard per carry average. There's not much confidence that they can turn it around with six tough games left.
20. The New Orleans Saints have a losing record.
The previous ranking was 18.
The week 6 confidence rating was 7.
How it is going now.
I thought the Saints had survived the toughest part of their season so far. They were able to climb to 5-2 with a win over the Buccaneers. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to a season-ending knee injury, Michael Thomas wouldn't be coming back from an ankle injury, and they also lost Alvin Kamara for three games. The lackluster passing attack has been the only constant all season. The schedule isn't too daunting down the stretch and the roster is getting healthier.
21. The Miami Dolphins are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 25.
The week 6 confidence rating was 4.0.
How it is going now.
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A four-game winning streak is what it does. Tua Tagovailoa said after the Dolphins' victory that they are finally looking like the team they expected to be. During its seven-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins allowed the most yards in the league. It is second in the NFL in defensive EPA over the last four weeks, trailing only New England. The Giants and Jets are the two teams the Dolphins should beat in their next two games.
22. The Washington Football Team is 5-5.
The previous ranking was 23.
The week 6 confidence rating was 3.8.
How it is going now.
The defense showed up. The defense was terrible early in the season. Washington has won three straight by using a formula of strong defense and a physical run game. Each of the past four opponents has had less than 300 yards of offense. The run game has compiled 334 yards in the past two weeks. Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke has done a good job of managing the game. John Keim said that the confidence level is growing.
23. The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 21.
The week 6 confidence rating was 3.8.
How it is going now.
Since the last check-in, the Eagles have found an offensive identity based on a dominant rushing attack. The 1,078 yards on the ground they have racked up since Week 8 is the most in the league. The Colts have 841. The Eagles lost 13-7 to the Giants on Sunday in which Hurts threw a career-high three picks. Philadelphia's playoff chances dropped to 26% after the defeat. The Eagles have the easiest closing schedule in the league, and they should have more good Sundays than bad to finish the season, so long as they can keep the turnovers down.
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24. The Carolina Panthers are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 19
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
How it is going now.
Despite getting key players back, the Carolinas are 2-4 since Week 6. Poor quarterback play is the biggest issue. Sam Darnold, who had no touchdown passes and four turnovers in a three-game span before going to injured reserve, was the first. He was shaky before that. The equation was entered by CamNewton. His game fell apart on Sunday at Miami. The confidence level will keep dropping until that position is stable.
25. The Atlanta Falcons have a losing record.
The previous ranking was 24.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
How it is going now.
Atlanta has beaten a lot of the teams that are in the wild-card race. The Falcons have five wins and two of them were against teams that would be drafting in the top 5 if the season ended today. Atlanta has a problem with consistency and bad results when it plays good teams. The rest of the way is not very kind, with games against San Francisco, Buffalo and Tampa Bay.
26. The New York Giants are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 26.
The week 6 confidence rating was 1.8.
How it is going now.
The Giants have won three of the five games they have played. Even if it hasn't been pretty, that's not bad. The Giants have only lost two times since Week 6. How? They have the second-highest defensive EPA at 36.96.
27. The Bears are 4-7.
The previous ranking was 27.
The week 6 confidence rating was 4.8.
How it is going now.
My confidence rating for the Bears is low. The Bears are still alive for the playoffs, but they are 14th out of 16 teams in the conference. The Bears never received a high number on the weekly confidence ratings, even if they won, because they were not good enough. Am I supposed to throw a parade for the Bears?
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28. The Seattle Seahawks are 3-7.
The previous ranking was 28.
The week 6 confidence rating was 5.0.
How it is going now.
According to the Football Power Index, the Seahawks have a 1% chance to make the playoffs and a broken offense. They couldn't finish on offense against the Rams when Geno Smith replaced Russell Wilson, and they couldn't do it in their two losses with Smith as starter. The thought was how much they were missing Wilson. Their offense has been bad since his return from finger surgery, scoring only 28 combined points in three straight losses. Wilson said that his finger is fine and that he is missing throws that he usually does. The defense is playing well, but not enough to save the season.
29. The New York Jets are winless.
The previous ranking was 31
The week 6 confidence rating was 3.0.
How it is going now.
The Jets went from 31st to 21st in total yards. The problem is that the improvement was not caused by the missed games by the rookies. He is their future and they have to get him up to speed. The defense dropped from 22nd to 32nd, which included a historically bad four game losing streak. The defense took a couple of small steps in the win at the Texans, but it has a long way to go.
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30. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a losing record.
The previous ranking was 30.
The week 6 confidence rating was 3.0.
How it is going now.
The offense has gotten worse, and it wasn't great in the first six weeks. The Jags have scored a league-worst 11.4 points per game and have managed just 283 yards in their past five games. Over that time, Lawrence has thrown two touchdown passes and two interceptions, with a QBR of 28.6, which is second worst.
31. The Houston Texans have a 2-9 record.
The previous ranking was 29
The week 6 confidence rating was 1.0.
How it is going now.
The Texans have only won one game since Week 6 and have a low confidence rating. Houston got a surprise win in Nashville in Week 11 but couldn't build on it on Sunday, losing by a touchdown to the Jets. The biggest question for the Texans is where they pick in the draft, after having just one first-round pick since the beginning of the year. Houston is projected to have an average draft position of 2.6 and has a 97.3% chance of getting a top-5 pick.
32. The Detroit Lions are 0-10.
The previous ranking was 32.
The week 6 confidence rating was 2.5.
How it is going now.
I don't have a lot of faith in this team. Winning a single game is still a question mark. The offensive playcalling has a lot to do with the talent on the roster. I don't trust the Lions to close out a game even though they are 0-10-1. The quarterback acknowledged after the Thanksgiving Day loss to Chicago that the team has to learn how not to lose.
