The time is 11:45 PM.
The Ravens are in the driver's seat in the playoffs, we were told at midnight on Sunday. The 16-10 victory over the Cleveland was enough to elevate them to the top spot in the AFC, replacing the Tennessee and the surging New England.
Is the Ravens the best team in the league? It's too early to say that. We can say that the Ravens rose to the challenge.
The NFL's Week 12 playoff picture is a mess. It's difficult to say whether there are seven legitimate playoff teams in the NFC or if there are two or three legitimate playoff teams in the AFC. The Vikings are one of six teams that have five or six wins. The number will be seven if the Washington beats the Seattle on Monday.
The league is standing after only one game of Week 12. We'll use our own instincts and the Football Power Index to guide us.
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A group of people.
1. The Baltimore Ravens are 8-3.
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 65%.
The quarterback of the top seed in the playoffs threw four picks, but his team still won. You can see that as a sign of strength for Lamar Jackson's Ravens, or the inability of the Browns to take advantage. At the end of the night, the Ravens were the top team in the AFC.
The conference is up for grabs among a half-dozen teams and their presence at the top of the rankings shows that. Can the Ravens hold off the other teams? We don't often say this, but the Ravens have a chance to advance their quest in Week 13 when they play the reeling Steelers.
Next stop: at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
2. The New England team is 8-5
There is a 98% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 33%.
The reason we think the team is one of the best is because they give us reasons. Their sixth victory in a row was a 23 point victory over the Titans. They lead the league with a point differential of plus-144, and they have won by at least 18 points in five of those. It's crazy that this has all come with Mac Jones, who is playing well but not among the league's top 10 in Total QBR.
In Week 13 of the season, the New England will be able to lock down the AFC East when they travel to Buffalo. The chances of winning the division are less than home-field advantage, but they are legitimate possibilities for the Pats. The Pats would have ended the season with the top seed if the Ravens had lost.
Next stop: at Bills.
3. The TennesseeTitans are 8-4.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
98% of the time, the FPI will win the division.
The good news is that the two-game losing streak hasn't really hurt their standing in the AFC South, where they have a two-game lead with five games left to play. They'll have a bye in Week 13 and then play the two teams that are going in the wrong direction. The question is not whether the team will make the playoffs, but whether they can make a deep run given their health and the results of their past two games. At the moment, the answer is not certain.
Next up: vs.
4. The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-4
80% of the time, the FPI makes the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 56%.
The playoff positioning of the Chiefs will not change after their bye week. The other three teams are all 5-5, but they have a full game lead. The division is still very much in play. The Broncos and Raiders are two of the four teams the Chiefs will play in their final six games.
Next up: Broncos.
5. The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-7.
There are a lot of chances that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 28% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The team that lost two games in a row before its Week 10 bye looks different than the one that did not. They've defeated the Raiders and Steelers by a combined 57 points. They have a one-in-four chance of winning the AFC North, and they have gotten themselves to the point where they like their chances of making the playoffs. If the Ravens had lost Sunday night to the Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati Reds would have taken over the top spot in the division. That's how close they are.
Next up is the Chargers.
Play.
Joe Mixon ran for 165 yards with two touchdown in the Cincinnati's victory over the Pittsburgh.
6. The Buffalo Bills are 4-7.
The chances of FPI making the playoffs are 94%.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 67%.
Will a convincing win in the Superdome be enough to get the Bills out of their rut? They had lost two of their past three games, including a 26 point loss to the Colts. The Bills are about to head into a brutal stretch of their schedule, so they better hope they've figured it out. They will play the red-hot Pats twice in four weeks, with a game at the Buccaneers mixed in.
Next up: New England.
7. The Los Angeles Bolts are 5-5.
There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 25% chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Bolts have lost four of their past six games, including Sunday's defeat to the Broncos. They've turned in the wrong direction after a 4-1 start, but they're still in the top seven thanks to their head-to-head victory over the Raiders in Week 4. It's another story if they can stay here. If the Browns had won Sunday night, they would have overtaken the Bolts at the No. 7 spot. They are on the edge.
Next stop: at Cincinnati.
In the hunt for the football team.
The Raiders are from Las Vegas.
We can't do anything but give the Raiders our thanks, as their slide seemed to be well underway during their three-game losing streak entering Thursday's game at the Cowboys. They have 10 days to prepare for their home game against Washington in Week 13 after going into AT&T Stadium and winning a war of attrition. There is a 21% chance that they will play beyond Week 18.
The Denver Broncos are 5-5.
The Broncos came out of their bye with a dominating performance against the Chargers, their third win in their past four games. It gave them a chance to at least have a chance in the end. Denver has a 32% chance of making the playoffs. The Broncos will play four of their remaining six games against divisional opponents.
Here's how the playoffs looks at the moment and what might happen in the future.
Who is currently in the playoffs?
The Playoff Machine is a program on the ESPYS.
The Football Power Index is a measure of standings.
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-6)
The Colts' three-game winning streak ended with an odd home loss that featured 27 consecutive pass plays from their offense, presumably in part to beat a defense that was geared to stop Jonathan Taylor. We found out that the quarterback can't carry the team. They will have a chance to get back on track in Week 13 against the Texans. Indianapolis has a 42% chance of making the playoffs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-5.
Yeesh. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost their last three games and look like a team that is not going to make the playoffs. The path to the playoffs won't get any easier in Week 13 against the Ravens, as they are giving them just a 10% chance to make the playoffs.
The Cleveland Browns are 3-6.
Despite intercepting Jackson four times, the Browns couldn't win in Baltimore and get back into the playoffs. If they had won, they would have finished in the top 7. They will face the Ravens again when they return in Week 14 after a bye, after losing two of their past three games. The Cleveland Indians have a chance of playing in the playoffs this season.
The NFC is a part of the game.
1. The Arizona Cardinals are 9-2
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of the FPI winning the division are 98%.
Even though they exited it at the top of theNFC, theCardinals entered Week 12 knowing they would also leave it there. With quarterback Kyler Murray and receiver DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup, the final playoff push is likely.
They will need to be strong. The eyeball test suggests that the Cards' strength of their remaining schedule is more difficult than they think. Three of the five games are on the road, and two of them are against teams with winning records. TheColts will be a tough out in Week 16. Through Week 12 of the season, the Cards have the best road record in the league.
Next stop: at Bears.
2. The Green Bay Packers are 9-3.
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
98% of the time, the FPI will win the division.
The Packers rebounded from a loss in Minnesota to put themselves in a good position for their bye. They're right behind the Cards in the head-to-head category. Quarterback Rodgers has an extra week to rest his fractured toe, and Bahktiari could potentially return to the field, even if he has to have surgery.
Three of their remaining games will be at Lambeau Field, where the Packers are perfect this season. Ford Field is where they'll play the winless Lions in one of the two road games. The Packers are very much in the running to be the top team in the conference, both on the field and in the playoffs.
Next up: Bears.
Play.
The Packers got on the board when Rodgers beat Ramsey on the edge for the touchdown.
3. The Buccaneers are 8-3).
There is a 99% chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
98% of the time, the FPI will win the division.
Since a two-game losing streak had everyone around the league losing their minds, the Buccaneers have won two games in a row. They got some help Sunday from the Colts, who tried to protect a 10-point halftime lead by ignoring tailback Jonathan Taylor and throwing the ball on 27 consecutive plays. Their remaining strength of schedule is ranked 22nd, and only one opponent with a winning record is on it.
Next stop: at Falcons.
4. The Dallas Cowboys are 4-7.
There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
The chances of FPI winning the division are 89%.
Uh-oh. The Cowboys were expected to do well once they got their quarterback back. They have lost three of their past four games, the most recent being to the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Poor competition from their division rivals protects the leader of the NFC East. No one is within two games of the Cowboys after the Eagles' loss to the Giants. The Cowboys are the least-flawed team in a weak division, so it's not certain if they will head into the playoffs as a genuine contender or not.
Next stop: at Saints.
5. The Los Angeles Rams are 7-4
There is a chance that the FPI will make the playoffs.
4% of the time, the FPI has a chance to win the division.
It's fair to ask if the Rams will make the playoffs. They have lost three games in a row, with quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing pick-sixes in each of them. Even coach Sean McVay seemed overwhelmed by the moment Sunday at Lambeau Field, making an inexplicable decision to run on third down with no timeouts on their final possession, forcing a hurried field goal attempt as the clock ran out.
Their remaining schedule is the fourth-most difficult in the league and they will get the best chance to regroup in Week 13 with a home game against Jacksonville.
Next up: a game with the Jags.
6. The San Francisco 49ers lost.
There are a lot of chances that the FPI will make the playoffs.
There is a 1% chance that the FPI will win the division.
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At the right time, the 49ers are figuring things out. They have won three consecutive games and four of their past five, and Sunday's victory over the Vikings will give them an important head-to-head tie-breaker should it be needed at the end of the season. They're playing better right now than all but one of their final six opponents, and an argument could be made that they're playing better than ever. They'll overtake the Rams in the playoffs in a matter of weeks.
Next stop: at the Seahawks.
7. The Minnesota Vikings are 5-5.
There are a lot of chances for the FPI to make the playoffs.
2% is the chance that the FPI will win the division.
The Vikings are in the playoffs because of a complex set of tiebreakers that broke on their conference record, which is better than the Falcons. Washington could knock them out of the top seven with a victory on Monday.
The Vikings' loss to the 49ers on Sunday showed that they have a lot of work to do to get into the playoffs. They played without their starting defensive line and lost Anthony Barr during the game. Dalvin Cook appeared to have a significant shoulder injury on Sunday, and KirkCousins can't be trusted to play well in pressure situations. If someone below them catches fire, the Vikings may not be able to win both of their games at the Lions and Bears.
Next stop: at the Lions.
In the hunt for the nearest store.
The Atlanta Falcons have a losing record.
The Falcons started the season with three losses and went on to beat the Jags on Sunday. The Falcons are out of the wild-card picture thanks to a head-to-head tie with the Saints. Things have happened, but they have a significant obstacle in Week 13 when they host the Buccaneers. Atlanta has a 5% chance of making the playoffs.
The New Orleans Saints have a losing record.
The Saints have lost four in a row since starting quarterback Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury. They are looking at the playoffs after their offense had no punch against the Bills. The Cowboys will play them in Week 13 but four of their final six opponents have losing records. New Orleans has a good chance of making the playoffs.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-7.
There is no way to sugarcoat it. The Eagles lost to the Giants on Sunday, scoring just seven points, and failing to impress in the playoffs. If they had won, the Eagles would have put themselves in the mix for a wild-card spot and put some pressure on the Cowboys. It's fair to ask if they'll squander one of the easiest remaining schedules, which continues in Week 13 at the Jets. Philadelphia has a 24% chance to make the playoffs, but their division winner likelihood has fallen to 5%.
Play.
On the final play, Hurts lets it fly to Reagor. The Giants won the game because Reagor couldn't catch the catch.
The Carolina Panthers are 4-7.
Since a three game winning streak, the panthers have lost seven of nine. Their fade from the playoff picture is nearly complete, but they will have a bye week followed by a winnable game in Week 14 against the Falcons to delay the inevitable for a little longer. 3% of hope is given by FPI.
The Washington Football Team is 4-7.
It's not often that a four-win team is in the playoff picture in Week 12, but if it beats the Seahawks at home Monday night, Washington will have the same record as the Vikings, Falcons and Saints. Washington has a chance of finishing in the top seven.
