In the six months that the coronaviruses have been around, millions of workers have lost their jobs and companies are worried about their economic future.
There were orders pouring in.
Families stuck at home decided to upgrade their sectional. Singles were tired of looking at their old furniture and wanted a new one. They were willing to pay up because the cost of every part of furniture production was going to increase quickly.
The furniture companies in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains have been presented with an unforeseen opportunity after the H1N1 outbreak. Demand for furniture is very strong.
They have a chance to rebuild some of the business they lost to globalization. Local furniture companies were forced to shift to custom upholstery and handcrafted wood furniture in order to survive after offshoring. Firms like Hancock & Moore have a lot of orders. The company is in need of workers.
Amy Guyer, vice president for human resources and benefits for the parent company that includes Rock House Farm furniture brands, said it was unprecedented.
The same forces that are making it difficult for overseas manufacturers to sell their goods in the United States are also throwing up obstacles.
Many companies rely on parts from overseas, which have been harder to get. Too few skilled workers are looking for jobs in the industry to fill open positions, and businesses are unsure how long the demand will last, making some reluctant to invest in new factories or to expand to towns with bigger potential labor pools.
Ms. Guyer said that they would love to expand capacity, but that they are the furniture mecca of North Carolina, and every other furniture company is in the same boat.
Alex Shuford, the chief executive of the company that owns Rock House Farm furniture brands, said that the surge wouldn't last as long as it would take to get a completely trained work force up to speed.
The current moment is not sustainable in any way.
Strong demand and limited supply are helping companies in the area. The prices for furniture have gone up by 12 percent nationally through October. The inflation measure tracks a small portion of the basket of goods and services, and it has not been enough to drive overall prices to uncomfortable levels. The rise has come alongside a jump in car, fuel, food and rent costs that have driven inflation to the highest level in 31 years.
How long the surge in demand and limitations in supply will last is a question policymakers and consumers alike are asking. The answer lies in how quickly shipping routes can clear up and whether producers like the craftsmen in Hickory can ramp up output to meet booming demand. It is proving to be a more difficult task at home.
The production floor at Century Furniture's case goods factory.
Century Furniture has an upholstery plant. Domestic producers are raising prices because of the booming demand for furniture.
The sound of electrical sanders and the sound of a craftsman planing a chair leg echoed through one of Century Furniture's cavernous warehouses. 600 workers used to work in the factory. About 250 people are constructing tables, chairs and desks.
Brandon Mallard, the plant's manager, said that the plant has more than 4,000 orders in the works. The delivery of furniture used to be within six to eight weeks, but now it can take six months.
Century is also being hit by the same supply chain problems. There are drawer handles trapped on container ships. Imported wood has faced delays.
Mr. Mallard said component delivery dates just keep moving out.
Labor has been a challenge. Century employees have been working overtime to catch up with the backlog, but they burn out and the furniture margins are so thin that paying overtime labor rates can eat into profits. Several of Mr. Shuford's brands have been raising prices, but because pieces are pre-ordered weeks or months in advance, they have sometimes failed to increase them quickly enough to keep up.
The experience in Hickory is a good example of what is happening in the global economy.
Jonathan Smith is a student at the furniture academy. The furniture industry needs more young people in it. The New York Times has a credit for it.
The demand rebounded after falling early in the Pandemic due to government checks and savings. Spending has shifted away from services and towards goods.
The sudden change has thrown a finely balanced global supply chain out of whack: Shipping containers have struggled to get to stockyards where they are needed, container ships cannot clear ports quickly enough, and when imported goods get to dry land, there are not enough trucks around to deliver everything. Foreign factory shutdowns are tied to the virus.
Prices for finished goods, parts and raw materials have gone up because foreign-made parts are not reaching domestic producers and warehouses. American factories and retailers are raising their prices. Companies have been forced to raise their wages because there are not enough workers to cover their costs.
At the start of the Pandemic, Chad Ballard was making$15 per hour building furniture in Hickory, but he has gone from there to a more specialized role and is now making $20 per hour.
Mr. Ballard came to town four years ago after working in construction and tree services in Florida. He found furniture making to be stable and less exposed to weather. He was able to pay off his Jeep and buy a house with his wife because of the stability and financial security that the job provided.
If inflation continues to rise in the hot-demand economy, it will make it harder for workers like Mr. Ballard to make ends meet, and make it harder for other consumers to make ends meet. The heating economy will make buying a house a bit more difficult. The average price for a house in Hickory has increased by 21 percent over the past year.
The New York Times has a story on the fabric and leather templates for furniture designs at a North Carolina factory.
Beverly Houston organized pieces of leather as they came off the cutting machine.
Economic policymakers worry that consumers and businesses will expect sustained inflation and higher pay, leading to a spiral where wages and prices push each other up.
There is reason to believe that this can be avoided. Many economists, including those in the Biden administration, believe that demand will eventually moderate as life shifts back toward more normal patterns and consumers spend down their savings, allowing supply to catch up by the end of next year.
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Almost everything is in short supply. Everything from toilet paper to new cars is included. When factories in Asia and Europe were forced to shut down, shipping companies cut their schedules.
The ports are struggling to keep up. In Europe and North America, the ports are overwhelmed by the heavy influx of ships. The containers are piling up. The massive traffic jam is likely to cause more chaos in global shipping.
A White House economic adviser said that the labor market is tight. Mr. Bernstein said that the administration was predicting that wage growth would last and improve worker leverage.
The White House wants to encourage more domestic manufacturing. This moment could help the agenda as it exposes the vulnerability of supply networks.
The demographic shift that is coming as the country's labor force ages could be a result of the employee shortages that are happening across the United States. Efforts to bring production and jobs back from overseas could be complicated by the worker shortages.
Even before the coronaviruses hit, the furniture industry was struggling to hire. It has an old labor force because a generation of talent chose not to leave the industry. Young people are not entering it to replace people who are retiring.
Local companies have been using automation to save labor, and they have been training their employees to be more proactive.
The furniture academy is sponsored by several large firms. On a recent Thursday night, employers set up booths at a jobs fair at the school, welcoming potential candidates with branded lanyards and informational material. It was the first furniture event of its kind.
Companies are trying to assure a new generation of young people that the field is worth pursuing. Corporate representatives outnumbered job seekers for most of the night.
The New York Times has a story on a furniture factory.
Bill McBrayer is the human resources manager at the company. Firms that specialize in temporary help can't find people.
He has been in the business for 35 years and it has never been like this.
