The Russian military launched a missile at a Soviet-era intelligence satellite. The impact created a debris field consisting of 1500 pieces of trackable debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces that are too small to be monitored with ground-based radar. The crew of the International Space Station took emergency precautions and hid in their descent capsule, ready for a quick return to Earth in the event that the station was hit, after the debris field crossed the space station's orbit repeatedly.
The November 15 test demonstrated that ASATs pose a real danger to human life, even though the station and its crew escaped without harm. They can wreak havoc on the rest of Earth's space infrastructure. The era of ASATs must come to an end if space infrastructure is to be sustainable.
Russia's November 15 test sent debris into the path of Russia's own cosmonauts, who are on the International Space Station. There is a lot of blame to be thrown around when it comes to ASAT tests. Few countries have not conducted their own. In 2007, China blew up one of its satellites, creating 40,000 new pieces of debris in a high enough altitude that most of it will remain for decades to come. The United States shot down its own malfunctioning spy satellite, claiming it posed a threat to human health if it crashed down to Earth in one piece. The American test was at a lower altitude than the Chinese test, which meant the debris deorbited more quickly. India conducted an ASAT test at a relatively low altitude in 2019. The impact of the tests can boost debris into higher, longer- lasting orbits. There is no such thing as a responsible ASAT test.
One month after the disintegration of the debris, there are known flights of it. The International Space Station is represented by a white orbit. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has credit.
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Cold War politics are still very much alive and well in the history of space exploration, and there is no shortage of nations using spaceflight to show off their military prowess. The consequences will only get worse as low Earth orbit becomes a busier place, as irresponsible displays have no place in a sustainable space environment. Mega-constellations promise to increase the number of satellites by an order of magnitude. The Starlink constellation is rapidly expanding this year with nearly 1700 units.
Experts are worried that future ASAT tests might be more dangerous. A new paper by researchers from the University of British Columbia was released on ArXiv this week, modeling what an ASAT test might look like in a busy space environment. They want to know if there were 65,000 active satellites in the sky, as opposed to the current 7,000. Their result indicated a 30% chance of a collision for every test conducted, and an impact of debris smaller than 3mm would be almost guaranteed. The less room there is to blow things up, the better.
The audio from the moment Mission Control told the astronauts about the risk of debris is in this video. The crew took shelter after carrying out emergency procedures. The video has time stamps for key moments during the first three hours. NASA, via Space SPAN.
Following the most recent tests by India and Russia, public opinion is turning against ASAT test perpetrators. Something more substantial may be needed to reign in the worst offenders. If there is to be any hope of success, the major spacefaring nations will need to take the lead and update international norms, treaties, and United Nations resolutions.
There are many challenges to overcome in space in the next decade, like how to deal with radiation in long-term human spaceflight, or how to manage mega-constellations without interfering with ground-based astronomy. Adding to the list of challenges by conducting unnecessary, irresponsible ASAT tests is short-sighted. It is about time they stop. Period.
ArXiv has a report on Sarah and AAron Boley's research on the risks of debris-generating ASAT tests.
A model of the debris environment. The credit is given to the European Space Agency.
