The trends that will shape the coming decades are part of the latest DealBook report.
graphics are destiny.
It is a phrase attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte, and it suggests that a lot of the future will be decided by the trends of the population. Want to know how the power dynamic between the United States and China will change over the next 20 years? You should look at the demographic of both countries. China is likely to overtake the U.S. economy by the year 2028, but remain smaller on a per capita basis.
Want to know how much we will need to mine to make batteries over the next 20 years? The answer will most likely be provided by the demographic. The International Energy Agency says we will need 13 to 42 times the amount we use. And on and on.
Predicting the future is not a good idea. Business and political leaders don't do enough to use demographic data to assess the opportunities and challenges of the next two decades. We are all swept up in the here and now, the next quarter and the next year.
Demographics can't spot crises. Such events are rare.
After 9/11, prognosticators suggested that travel might be reduced forever. It is true that air travel changed after the attacks, but within a few months growth was back on track. Why? There are Demographics. More people around the world had more disposable income and chose to live closer to airports. Predicting certain elements of the future is almost mathematical because people like to be around other people.
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Demographics can't help predict technological innovations in the future. Even technological innovations have a slower impact on the day-to-day. Peter Thiel said in 2013 that they wanted flying cars. We got 140 characters instead.
What comes next? What would be different if you woke up 20 years from now? There are some ideas that don't require a crystal ball.
According to the United Nations, 70 percent of the world's population will live in urban areas by the year 2050.
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The electrical workers are checking the solar panels at the power station.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need 28 percent more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015, and that 42 percent of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources.
Where will the electricity come from? Five years ago, Musk suggested that solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land and transported to population centers. He said that China has an enormous land area and that most of the population is in coastal cities. You could easily power all of China with solar.
Increasing energy needs and on-demand everything are both trends that are not going away. Technology has led us to believe that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button. Real estate in cities that are currently used for retail could be changed by that. Companies will need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers as they work towards instant deliveries. Real estate investors are thinking about how to make mini-warehouses. The density of people in cities is likely to affect farming and delivery of food. Vertical farming, in indoor, controlled environments, could become a new reality to get fresh produce to customers quickly.
We will be older. The United Nations predicts that we will live until 82.4 years old in the United States. That is a good thing for health care companies that cater to older people. It will be more expensive to live three extra years, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government projections show that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.
Entrepreneurs, industry leaders and policymakers are already working on solutions to some of the problems that demographic data suggests are ahead of us, such as how to incentivize farmers to sequester carbon, use insurance as a tool for reducing coal production, and reinventing the motors that power heavy industry so they use.
Is the metaverse related? Is that technology or something else? Or are our jobs being taken by machines? Is that A.I. taking over everything? Demographics can't answer those questions. Life in 2041 may look a lot like it does today, with the exception of those flying cars.
