There are serious concerns that Russia is on the verge of invading Ukraine for the second time this year. The West is alarmed by the large number of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border. On Friday, the president of Ukraine claimed to have uncovered a coup plot. The world is on edge, with leaders in Washington pondering what Putin will do next.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently told reporters that they don't know what President Putin's intentions are, but they know what happened in the past. "We know that Russia is planning to do what it did all along, and that's using illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country as an excuse to do so."
According to ex-diplomats, ex-officials, and experts, a Russian military incursion into Ukraine is a strong possibility in the near future, and that Putin has a significant advantage over the US and NATO at a time when many Western countries are plagued by domestic disarray.
There is a risk of Russian military activity in Ukraine in the next few months. Ivo Daalder, the US ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, told Insider that all the signs point to a major build up of military capability.
Moscow's rhetoric at the moment is designed to heighten tensions while placing blame on the US and NATO, Daalder said.
The top Russia advisor on the National Security Council under the Trump administration told Insider that Putin is "deadly serious" about taking action on Ukraine. She said that he wants Ukraine to be neutralized.
"You have to take it seriously because Russia has crossed the Rubicon many times before when people said they wouldn't," Hill said. The ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine has claimed over 13,000 lives and the Kremlin has denied any involvement.
The Russian president sees an "opportunity" to exploit the weakness of the West because of historic political polarization in the US, a growing divide between the US and European allies, and disunity within a number of European countries.
The US has given over $2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. Even if Russia invaded, it's unlikely that the US would send troops to support the country.
A country that invaded Ukraine before.
The mountain air assault division of the Russian army is holding an exercise in March of 2021.
Sergei Malgavko is a photographer.
Steven Pifer, the US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, told Insider that the odds of Russia invading Ukraine are low because of the potential costs to the Kremlin.
Pifer said it was hard to rule out anything because Putin has his own logic. The US and Europe need to make it clear to Russia that there would be big costs if they took military action, Pifer said.
NATO will not take military action against Russia if it invades. NATO members will likely give more arms to Ukraine, and the Alliance will become more serious about bolstering its defense posture against Russia.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Friday that there will be consequences if force is used against Ukraine. Russia's military build-up is unprovoked and unexplained, and raises tensions and risks miscalculations, warned NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO chief said there was no certainty about the intentions of Russia, but that it was a military build up by a country that had invaded Ukraine before.
Karen Donfried, the top US diplomat for European affairs, told reporters on Friday that "all options are on the table" in response to the Russian troop build up.
Ukraine is unfinished business for Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks over a mock up of a Russian aircraft carrier at a military exposition.
Mikhail Svetlov is a photographer.
The Kremlin blamed NATO for the contentious dynamic. Putin said last Thursday that the West was not taking Russia's "red lines" seriously.
Putin said in a speech that his partners have a superficial attitude to all his warnings and talk of red lines. Putin claimed that the Western strategic bombers had flown within Russia's borders.
The Kremlin warned in September that NATO would cross Putin's "red lines". The US and NATO have been denounced by Russia.
Though it is not a full NATO member, Ukraine has expressed a desire to join and maintain a strong partnership with the alliance. The increase of US and NATO military activities in Ukraine has angered Putin, who views them as a threat to Russian security. Russia has moved to crush any influence from the west in the country.
Daalder said that Putin is trying to disrupt Europe and the region to ensure that he and Russia are not ignored.
Hill said that the Russian president places Ukraine at the top of the hierarchy of issues that he wants to resolve and that he views it as unfinished business. Hill said that Putin would be open to achieving a diplomatic resolution if he felt that Russia wasn't being taken seriously.
If there is a diplomatic response from the West, Putin will lose the upper hand that he has over the West.
The US can't resolve this on its own, Hill said.
