Play.
The top 4 in the rankings are Cincinnati.
Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama are the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings. (3:33)
6:30 AM
I'm not talking about Cincinnati, but a precedent-breaking playoff decision hurtling toward the College Football Playoff selection committee. On selection day, the committee may have to decide what to do with an 11-2 Alabama team.
Two-loss teams have never made the playoffs. They may still get in because of Alabama's brand value.
There's no guarantee that Alabama will win the national title, but we can break it down with the Playoff Predictor.
If the committee wants the four best teams, should 11-2 non-champion Alabama get in?
Absolutely yes. The easiest question to answer is that the Tide are the third-best team in college football. They are the third-best team and eight points clear of any other team outside of the top four. It's virtually impossible for Alabama to fall outside of the top four with just two games left before the playoffs.
If the selection committee really means that Alabama is one of the four best teams, then we don't need the SEC Championship Game to know. I'm pretty sure if you asked the oddsmakers they'd agree.
If the committee wants the four most deserving teams, should 11-2 non-champion Alabama get in?
This one is not easy.
Alabama is likely to be a top-4 team even if it ends up 11-2 How can that be? They play more difficult games. It is most likely a loss for a top team when you add a 13th contest. Other teams don't have a loss on their schedule. Alabama's total strength of schedule is the third-hardest in the nation, only behind non-contenders in Arkansas and auburn, and Strength of Record allows them more wiggle room in the loss column.
The Tide project is ranked fourth in the Strength of Record. It is not a guaranteed top-four spot. Alabama would be on the outside looking in if a 12-1 Ohio State or Michigan, 12-1 Oklahoma or Oklahoma State and 13-0 Cincinnati all happen. Alabama has a 70% chance at a top-4 SOR.
The Tide would still be without a conference title, but their record would be among the best. The format's history shows that 24 of the 28 teams with a top-four SOR have made the playoffs.
Would Alabama get in?
The question is difficult.
The chances of the playoffs are currently put at 42% by the Predictor. It's a close call.
When the Tide end up with a top-4 FPI and Strength of Record, it puts them in a club that almost always gets in. The only one who missed the playoff was 2014, when TCU. Alabama would have lost to Georgia in this scenario, even though it was a Big 12 co-champion. It's possible that the committee will give them some respect on that front.
Everyone else wins the worst thing that can happen to Alabama. Notre Dame is 11-1, Ohio State is 12-1 and Oklahoma State is 12-1. If Alabama goes 11-2 and gets into the playoffs, the Playoff Predictor only gives the Tide 18% chance. There are more options to choose from. The Tide's chances increase with each successive one of those.
Alabama's playoff hopes could go either way if 11-2 is their fate.
