The variant was identified on Tuesday and highlighted as a concern due to its high number of genes. It was also linked to a surge in case numbers in the province of South Africa, which is an urban area containing the cities of Pretoria and Johannesburg. The chief medical adviser to the UK Health and Security Agency described the variant on Friday as the most worrying they had seen.
Where did it come from?
The variant did not originate in Gauteng. The sample was collected in Botswana. Scientists say that the constellation of mutations may have arisen during a chronic infection of an immune compromised person.
Why are scientists worried about it?
The variant has more than 30 changes to the spike protein, which is the key to the unlocking of our body's cells. Concerns have been raised that the antibodies from previous infections may no longer be well matched. Scientists think that the virus will be more likely to cause harm to people who have immunity to earlier versions.
Is it transmissible?
The emerging picture is worrying. There were more than 1,200 cases in South Africa by the start of this week, up from 273 on November 16. The variant has rapidly become the dominant strain and more than 80% of these were from the province of Gauteng. The R value is an indicator of how fast an epidemic is growing, and it is estimated to be 1.93 in the province. There is a chance that this is a statistical blip linked to a super-spreader event.
Will the vaccines work against it?
Scientists are concerned by the number of genes that have been linked to an ability to evade immune protection. Studies are being conducted to find out how effective the new variant is. Real-world data on reinfection rates will give a clearer indication of the extent of immunity change.
Scientists don't expect the variant to be completely unrecognisable to existing antibodies, just that current vaccines may give less protection. Increasing vaccination rates, including third doses for at risk groups, is a crucial objective.
Will it cause worse Covid?
South African scientists will be watching to see if the variant leads to a change in Covid symptoms or severity. It will take several weeks before any clear data is available because of the lag between infections and more serious illness.
How long could it take for the vaccines to be changed?
The teams behind vaccines are likely to be working on updating their vaccines with the new spikeProtein to prepare for an eventuality where a new version might be needed.
When the Delta and Beta versions came out, a lot of the preparation work was done, but the existing vaccines have held up well. Research teams were already working on new vaccines and had discussed with regulators what additional trials would be required. It could take about six months before updated vaccines are widely available.
Is it likely to spread around the world?
Most of the confirmed cases have been in South Africa. A person who had returned from Malawi was found in Israel on Thursday, and two other cases are suspected in the country.
If there is a transmissibility advantage, the new variant is likely to have already spread undetected to other countries.
Travel bans tend to buy time, but they are unlikely to stop the spread of a new variant entirely.
