A cooling of the US-China trade war is a bullish prospect for the stock market that few investors are considering, JPMorgan says

The meeting was held in 2011.

Lintao Zhang is a photographer.

The stock market could be affected by a cooling trade war between the US and China.
The stock market would rise, inflation would cool, and supply chain bottlenecks would be alleviated if Biden reverses existing tariffs.
The possibility of easing US-China tariffs is a tailwind for US and China stocks.

If the US reverses its tariffs on China and the trade war is reduced, US stocks will have more upside, according to a note from a JP Morgan analyst.

The potential for a trade-war reversal between the US and China, as it would align with President Joe Biden's campaign commitment, address business concerns, and provide consumer relief at a time of elevated inflation, is something that few have considered.

A reversal of the policy would help contain inflation, ease supply chain pressures, and boost corporate earnings, thus leading to a rally in stock prices.

A reversal of existing tariffs could give the S&P 500 a direct earnings per share benefit of $5 and up to an additional $5 from second-order effects. The bank estimates that trade tariffs have cost businesses and consumers over $125 billion.

The first two phases of tariffs on Chinese goods reduced earnings per share by 8% for S&P 500 companies. $350 billion to $370 billion tariffs are in place.

"A partial unwind would be a source of margin and earnings upside from lower friction costs, while also supporting labor market recovery and helping ease supply chain issues," he said.

The same sectors that were hurt the most when tariffs were initiated are poised for the most upside if tariffs are withdrawn.

Business Insider has an original article.