Some Pacific countries will have less than a quarter of adults vaccine by the end of the year, with predictions that the country will take five years to vaccine just one-third of its population.
The Lowy Institute released modelling on Sunday that takes into account factors such as access to vaccines, the number of healthcare workers and vaccine hesitancy to estimate when Pacific countries will hit key vaccine milestones.
The modelling shows a divided region. In the midst of a devastating Delta outbreak, around 3% of the adult population in the country of Papua New Guinea have been vaccined.
The Solomon Islands is predicted to have just 23% of its adult population fully vaccined by the end of the year, while Vanuatu is predicted to have 29% of adults fully vaccined.
The lead author of the model said he was shocked by what he saw in the rest of Melanesia. According to our model, the population of the country wouldn't get to more than 34% by August of 2026. This is concerning. It raises a big question about what will happen to countries that aren't fully vaccine free in the future. Are they going to be the pariahs of this world?
The US, Australia and New Zealand supported smaller Pacific nations in reaching 100% vaccine coverage.
One of the highest vaccination rates in the world can be found in the north Pacific nation of Palau. The country has nearly 20,000 people.
The Cook Islands, Niue, Nauru, and Tuvalu all have 100% of their adult populations fully vaccined.
The research looked at the supply of vaccines from donor countries. Australia has committed to provide more than double the supply of the region, with Covax committing 4.5m doses, followed by New Zealand, China, the US and India.
Dayant said that the issue was not vaccine supply but vaccine demand. Misinformation is one of the main reasons for vaccine hesitancy.
The misinformation spread much faster than the virus. One of the biggest issues in the Pacific is that social media is a key source of information, and this undermines the effort that the international community is making to inject the vaccine into people's arms.
Dayant said that the fact that huge quantities of the vaccine were donated to the country of their origin undermined confidence in the vaccine in Pacific countries.
Some of them were wondering if it was good enough for Australian people.
Many Pacific countries have kept their borders closed to international arrivals, something that has cost them a lot of money.
In the middle of 2021, there was a very serious Delta outbreak in the country of just under 1 million people, with over 50,000 cases and 700 deaths.
When the outbreak began, only 8% of adults in the country were fully vaccine free, but an ambitious vaccine program and a controversial "no jab, no job" policy saw vaccination rates increase. Almost all of the adults in the country received at least one dose. Travelers from Australia will be able to travel without fear in December.
