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Beto O'Rourke is running for governor of Texas, hoping to become the first Democrat to win the state in over a century.
What is happening?
Beto O'Rourke, a former congressman, is running for governor of Texas, hoping to become the first Democrat to lead the state since the early 1990s. He has pursued a bid for a major office three times in the last four years, and could potentially lose for the third time.
After six years in the House of Representatives, O'Rourke gave up his seat to run for the Senate. The close race made O'Rourke one of the rising stars of the Democratic Party, even though he came up short in his quest to oust incumbent Republican Ted Cruz. He announced his candidacy for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination five months later. The campaign failed to gain traction in a crowded field, and O'Rourke withdrew from the race in late 2019.
O'Rourke is the clear favorite to win the Republican primary and challenge Abbott in the governor's race. Abbott is one of the most assertive proponents of right-wing policies in the U.S., and he has challenged vaccine mandates. Abbott has signed into law strict new voting rules, a significant expansion of gun rights, and the most restrictive abortion law in the nation.
Texas, the country's second-most populous state, has long been considered a potential game-changer by the Democrats. Republican domination of the state has not changed. Since 1994, no Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas.
There is a debate.
If O'Rourke wants to become governor of Texas, he will face a steep challenge. There is a debate over whether he is the favorite in the race or if his campaign is a lost cause.
Texas is a solidly red state and Abbott holds many advantages in this contest. He has the power of incumbency, a huge early fundraising advantage, and a new slate of voting laws that are likely to benefit Republicans.
It is unlikely that O'Rourke will be able to repeat his breakthrough performance in the Senate campaign. He benefited from a nationwide blue wave in response to Trump's presidency. Republicans are expected to benefit from political trends. Some of the left-leaning political stances he took during his presidential run will have to contend with criticism.
Some analysts think O'Rourke has a chance in the race. He has a national profile and a proven ground game in the state. They argue that Abbott is more vulnerable than he appears. They say his efforts to appeal to the GOP's right-wing base could turn away suburban voters. He may face backlash over his handling of the winter storms that caused Texas's power grid to collapse.
What is next?
There is a major unknown hanging over the Texas governor's race. Matthew is considering joining the contest. If he does launch a formal bid, he is expected to run as an independent.
Perspectives.
The campaign is doomed from the beginning.
If I were Greg Abbott, I would be more worried about my Republican challengers than about Seor O'Rourke. The last great Democratic hope in Texas was not successful. I wouldn't be surprised if Beto O'Rourke did better than that, because he would provide a great black hole for the Democrats to shovel money into.
The fundamental nature of Texas politics can't be changed by the best candidate.
The most well-known Texas Democrat is O'Rourke, who has built up a local and national profile over the course of two campaigns in three years. Texas is difficult for a Democrat to crack. There have been three decades of Republican dominance in the state, and even the most ideal Democratic candidate would be seen as an outsider.
The trends that benefited O'Rourke in the past will not be the same in the future.
The political environment in 2022 will probably help Abbott more than O'Rourke. The electoral conditions that helped O'Rourke in his Senate race were favorable, and there was a Republican president in office who was unpopular. If current trends continue, Republicans will get to run with a Democrat in the White House and that will be unpopular.
After two failed campaigns, O'Rourke's standing in Texas has fallen.
O'Rourke's image in Texas is damaged after his Senate campaign, presidential campaign and starring role in the 2020 election.
The candidate is strong enough to pull off a shocking upset.
A lesser candidate wouldn't have a chance. O'Rourke changes everything. If an unwinnable race is not winnable, surely it will be more competitive than it would have been.
Abbott could be hurt in the general election by far-right challengers.
Abbott is facing challenges from the right and may be sticking to pro-Trump positions. The question of whether a pro-Trump position will help Abbott in a general election is more complicated than might be expected.
The voter base in Texas is shifting towards Democrats.
Greg Abbott has added 4 million new voters. There are a lot of new Texans who don't know who Greg Abbott is or who Beto O'Rourke is. I guess that is what O'Rourke is hoping for: a whole new electorate in Texas who can be persuaded about the correctness of his policies and the problems that Republicans have faced since they've been in office for 20-plus years.
The state has an independent streak and O'Rourke can tap into it.
He will lose if the election is about guns. He might have a chance if it is about Texas's self- image as a big-hearted, can-do and self-reliant state. The values Republicans used to claim as their own can be elevated by O'Rourke.
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The photo illustration is from Yahoo News.
