Elon Musk Concedes That First Orbital Starship Launch May Explode

Musk made an eyebrow raising concession on Wednesday, implying that the first orbital Starship may explode on the launchpad.
At the National Academies joint meeting of the Space Studies Board and Board on Physics and Astronomy, the prolific memethief spoke with the title "SpaceX Starship Discussion." The CEO was quick to acknowledge that the first flight might not get that far, though he outlined the company's goals for next year.
There is a lot of risk associated with this first launch, so I would not say that it is likely to be successful, but we will make a lot of progress.

He did not say that the vehicle would explode into a lot of pieces, but he did say that it would be a huge failure.
The talk was filled with information, including the fact that SpaceX was aiming for an early 2022.

Musk said at the meeting that the first flight would be in January. He later said that the launch would be in either January or early February.

There are a number of factors that are outside of the control of the company. The company could launch in January if the review is finished by the end of December. We wouldn't hold our breath that the company will launch by that time.
During the talk, Musk outlined a bold vision for the company, which he said would make humanity a multi-planetary species. He said that it would take a lot to scale production of its rockets.
He said that life will need a thousand ships in order to become multi-planetary.
Let's start with a successful launch that doesn't blow up on the launchpad.

The Orbital Starship Prototype Just Fired Up Its Engines.

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