The College Football Playoff is currently being viewed from the outside by all but four teams. They are fortunate that the clock is still ticking.
Many teams have a pathway to success, but some are more likely than others. Fans and teams still want a path. Some still have it.
Let's use the Allstate Playoff Predictor to help us determine the path to the playoff for teams that are currently not in the top four.
Despite all the doom and gloom of the Group of 5, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is positive about the Bearcats' chances of getting in, giving them a 53% chance.
Cincinnati must win the first step; it's obvious.
The Bearcats will need to create enough chaos elsewhere to avoid the following four teams and records on Selection Day:
* Georgia: 0 or 1 Loss
* 1 Loss Alabama
* 1-loss Ohio State
*1-loss Michigan
* 1-loss Oklahoma
If they were to happen, these situations could pose a danger.
* 1-loss Oregon
* 1 Loss Michigan State
* Alabama 2-loss
* 1-loss Oklahoma State
* 1-loss Notre Dame
This seems like too much to ignore! These are not mutually exclusive. There can't be one-loss Ohio State or one-loss Michigan. Although a 1-loss Oregon or 1-loss Michigan State may be worthy of inclusion on the first list (FPI rankings: 21 and 22 respectively), both teams are far from being among the "best" four college football teams. The model assumes that the committee would be reluctant to include them.
6. Michigan
To reach the CFP, Michigan will need to win out over its biggest rival. Michigan State must beat Ohio State in order to win the division. Michigan will then be eligible to compete for the Big Ten title. Technically, Michigan State needs to lose one of its scheduled games.
If everything goes according to plan, Ohio State wins and Michigan wins. This includes wins over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship games. The Wolverines will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Although theoretically, it could be a problem if Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma win out, it is extremely unlikely that this will happen. The Predictor would almost certainly assume that the Ducks will lose.
7. Michigan State
The Spartans are more likely to win the Big Ten than Michigan. They just need to win. But once that happens, it's harder to make a case for their playoff spot.
It's possible that we are slightly underestimating Michigan State's chances of being a 12-1 Big Ten Champion. However, as I mentioned above, The Allstate Playoff Predictor has little precedent to include the 22nd best team in college football (per FPI) in this playoff. It's possible that teams that are low in the FPI rankings don't generate the same kind of resume that the Spartans would at 12-1.
The model shows that a 12-1/1 Michigan State would place behind Georgia, undefeated or undefeated Alabama, undefeated Oklahoma, undefeated Cincinnati and a 1-loss Oklahoma State. The Spartans will need to be supported, but it is possible. Imagine Alabama winning the SEC and Oklahoma winning the Big 12, and Cincinnati and Notre Dame each losing a game prior to the season's end.
8. Oklahoma
The Sooners are ranked second in strength of record, and fourth in FPI. They should be in the playoff, provided they are a Big 12 champion with fewer than one loss. The Allstate Playoff Predictor places their chances at 97% with a loss to Oklahoma State and a win at the conference championship game.
9. Notre Dame
You can win and then you can hope for either
* Chaos and/or
* Commitment bias against the Group of 5 or its members
* The 12-1/1 Committee should also recognize the weaknesses of Oregon and Michigan State.
It is possible. The Fighting Irish have a 48% chance of winning if Notre Dame wins. They need to lose elsewhere, and no conference championship is a good idea. It is possible.
10. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is not out of our thoughts. This is the 12th-ranked FPI Team with the chance to win a 12-1 conference championship. The Cowboys will be in a strong place, possibly competing against a 13-0 Cincinnati and 12-1 Oregon for the final spot. The hardest part for the Cowboys is winning out.
The possibility exists that A&M could still win the SEC. This would make the Aggies strong contenders for the playoffs. It's not possible. It's only 0.7% likely that A&M will win, including the SEC championship match. This scenario would also require Alabama to drop an SEC contest. The Predictor will not produce a projection due to too few simulations. Technically, it is possible.
