Republican wave builds to take back the House

Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), and Rep. Ron Kind's (D-Wis.), respectively, have taken away the resources of Democrats for difficult races. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez also chose to run in a safe seat near his current South Texas district. Wisconsin Republican Derrick Van Orden has raised $1.2 million and Republican Esther Joy King, Illinois, has $655,000. Despite this, no Democratic candidate had raised significant funds by the end the third quarter.
There are still some seats that will remain competitive even after redistricting, although party recruiters stated that strong candidates are being considered, especially after the Republican surge in the off-year election.

Anecdotal evidence: Youngkin’s pollster Chris Wilson from WPA Intelligence told POLITICO that he had heard from "more candidates looking at marginal seats" -- people who haven't drawn much interest because they lean Democratic -- "since Monday than we had in all of the preceding ten years of 2021."

According to two sources familiar, Bill Schuette, the former state attorney general, might run in Michigan against Dan Kildee, a Democratic representative in east-central Michigan. Party leaders hope that Republican John James will be running for a Detroit-area seat and that state senator Tom Barrett will run to represent a Lansing area district.

Ricky Gill is another name to keep an eye on. He is a former Trump official who was also an Indian American and raised almost $3 million for a 2012 congressional campaign. He is considering a bid for Josh Harder, a well-financed Democratic Representative from Northern California.

Officials of the party are hopeful they can win Democratic-leaning seat -- and they are already looking at some recently redrawn ones held in Texas by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) and Frank Mrvan (D.Ind.). Biden won the new seat in Oregon by 7 to 9 points. The new seat in Oregon could be contested by Republican Jimmy Crumpacker. Crumpacker was the one who funded a failed 2020 bid to a Republican-leaning District. Mrvan is already up against a formidable challenger: Jennifer Ruth Green, a veteran of the Black Air Force.

Youngkin's ability for Republicans to keep the GOP base energized and make inroads in Virginia's suburban areas, especially around Richmond, Hampton Roads, which are home to two competitive congressional district, is a great encouragement to them. Conston wrote to Congressional Leadership Fund donors that Youngkin had 84 percent turnout for Trump 2020, while Terry McAuliffe only motivated 65 percent of Biden voters.

Democrats openly questioned McAuliffe’s decision to heavily rely on Youngkin being tied to Donald Trump in the days following his defeat. The House Democrats were able to pass three days later a huge infrastructure bill that will give them something to promote in swing districts next year.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is charged with protecting a small majority, could complicate a strategy for steering the message away Trump.

"Kevin McCarthy is not Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin won by winning against Donald Trump. "The House Republicans voted by a margin of two-thirds to overturn the election," stated Sean Patrick Maloney, DCCC Chair. He spoke last week. He said, "If they let them have it both way," and that "it's an issue."

However, the results of last week indicated that the GOP's tent was growing.

More than 30 GOP members of the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership gathered Wednesday morning to hear Dave Sackett, Republican pollster, discuss Youngkin's coalition as well as other promising signs from the off year elections. The group's strategists received additional support. They had urged Youngkin at the start of the year to get involved and repeated their request Monday in a memo to find a way to keep them both in the fold.

Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the partnership, organized the meeting. She stated, "The best way is to never criticize Donald Trump." "There is no reason to. Talk about Trump's policies, all the positive things that have happened, and then let the Trump base speak. Let the suburban voters vote for you.

She said that "suburban women, particularly, never left Republican Party," citing 2020 wins of Reps. Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). Brian Fitzpatrick (R. Pa.) in Biden won districts, Youngkin's success close to Virginia's metropolitan areas. Trump was not a factor for them.