A recent study estimates that if all pregnancies are terminated, there could be a 21% increase in the number of deaths related to pregnancy. The shocking figure is even higher among Black communities at 33 percent
Researchers didn't consider the possible risks associated with illicit abortions. These are safer than ever, but they can still cause high mortality rates.
Although the scenario is hypothetical and extreme, it highlights the potential cost of broad-based legislation that attempts to simplify complex and personal issues.
Amanda Stevenson, a University of Colorado Boulder sociologist, stated that "the takeaway is that if people deny people abortions, pregnancy-related deaths will rise because staying pregnant is more risky to a woman's health than having an abortion."
Although access and restrictions may vary between jurisdictions, most Americans can terminate their pregnancy for reasons that they and their doctor agree on.
2017 saw 862,000 legal abortions in the country. This figure reflects a long-term downward trend that is due to a variety of factors including a decline in overall pregnancies.
Although there is an increase in people opting out to have larger families, pregnant women who do fall pregnancies still have to be aware of the risks that could cause serious health problems.
17 parents died for every 100,000 live births in 2017. This totals to 675 deaths, which is a tragic number but thanks to medical advances are thankfully quite low.
One option that is medically approved in the US is to end a potentially-life-threatening pregnancy. Even controversial legislation 'Senate Bill 8,' which bans most abortions after six weeks in Texas, leaves some room for medical emergencies (albeit poorly defined).
Texas's attempt at banning abortions has created a civil law that could threaten anyone who "aids and abets" one. This could lead to more serious consequences for health professionals, as they may have to risk their lives to avoid potential legal action.
Stevenson used the annual published figures for births and abortions from 2014 to 2017 to estimate the health effects similar laws could have. He then calculated the number of gestations that would continue to be born if the termination had not occurred.
It's easy to see how mortality rates could rise, given that the abortion risk is only 0.6 per 100,000 procedures.
Stevenson estimates that the 675 deaths in 2017 would look like 724 over the first 12 months after the hypothetical bill. This represents a 7 percent increase. After around 21 percent more deaths, this would translate into an annual average of 815.
Stevenson needed to look back at 2014 reports to get an idea of the distribution of this data across different demographics. The number of Blacks who have had abortions could increase by 33 percent.
Given the many assumptions made, these figures don't make precise predictions. We are not certain why the CDC's statistics on the rate of pregnancy-related deaths have increased over time. While increased reporting may be one possibility, errors can lead to overestimation.
Also, the numbers don't account for subtleties in human behavior such as the consequences of breaking the law. Illicit abortions are not legal, regardless of whether they are medically informed, or by desperate use of 'home remedies,' or any other form of misinformation.
Stevenson is wrong to speculate about the potential consequences of civil disobedience. A law that restricts a person’s ability to manage their own health or wellbeing can put lives at risk.
Stevenson says, "We must stop talking about coat hangers. We need to start talking honestly about how these laws will impact women's lives.
"This study is one of the pieces that we need to start that difficult conversation."
Demography published this research.
