Global warming is only concerned with one number: The amount carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The amount of CO2, the most important greenhouse gas is on the rise. This is a rate of growth that is unprecedented in the geologic records. Furthermore, the heat-trapping atmospheric CO2 levels are now at 414 parts per Million, which is the highest they have been in over 3 million years.
It is important to note that even the worst pandemic of the century, which caused unprecedented disruptions in daily life and transport, failed to slow down the rise in atmospheric CO2. Researchers with the Global Carbon Project (an international science group that tracks greenhouse gasses) have released two new reports showing that emissions have almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels after a remarkable 2020 drop in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
This is a stark reminder of the need for systemic transformation, such as economies and transportation that are largely powered with renewable energy. It will be possible to slow down Earth's unstoppable warming. However, this has not yet happened.
Mashable's Rob Jackson, a Stanford University professor of earth system sciences who was involved in both reports, stated that "we haven't altered the world's infrastructure fundamentally." "We had hoped that fossil carbon emissions would snap back once the world's economies recover." It was exactly what happened."
The reports have been published online in Earth System Science Data, and on the science preprint site arXiv.
2020 saw a drop in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion of 5.4 percent compared to 2019, which was still staggering at 34.8 billion tons. Jackson stated that it was the largest drop in CO2 emissions ever recorded. The latest estimates show that 2021's CO2 emissions, which total 36.4 billion tonnes, will almost rebound to levels of 2019.
The recent CO2 drop and subsequent rebound are actually peanuts in the larger carbon picture. The 2020 pandemic-induced drop in CO2 was not something to be excited about. The atmosphere still saw a lot of carbon emissions from society. "Being excited about 'only 34.8 [billion tonnes] of CO2 in 2020 would be like saying that you've quit smoking to just 19 cigarettes per day," Kristopher Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder climate scientist, said. She was not involved with the research.
The total amount of atmospheric CO2 (currently at 414 ppm), is similar to a bank account. Every annual emission is like a deposit. Even with a five-percent lower emission deposit for 2020, Earth's atmospheric CO2 levels still rose.
There are many large-scale and significant solutions to cutting carbon. This is the good news. It's not rocket science, or, perhaps, nuclear fusion. There are many examples of off-shore wind farms being built in high-density areas, such as the coasts. These farms produce a lot of energy. These aren't easy or cheap solutions to deploy. Global nations are attending the 26th UN climate conference ("COP26") and atmospheric CO2 continues to rise.
Karnauskas stated that "this trend is going to prove difficult (but not impossible to slow down") to reverse." We must stop emitting carbon to the atmosphere if we want the greenhouse gas concentrations to decline.
Trends in CO2 emissions, including the dip or rise in 2020-2021. Credit to GLOBAL CARBON SPECIALTY PROJECT
Skyrocketing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in comparison to the past 800,000 years. Credit to NASA
COP26 is a meeting of global leaders to discuss ways to prevent the worst effects of climate change. These include collapsed ice shelves and unprecedented droughts as well as catastrophic storms. This means that we must reduce emissions enough to maintain Earth's temperature at 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (2.7-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), above pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The world is currently on track to heat by 3 C (5.4 F) according to current carbon-cutting pledges from world countries. This would have severe, devastating environmental consequences.
Individual choices are important, but COP26 is about pushing countries to make strong, society-wide changes to reduce emissions. Even a homeless person can have an unsustainable amount of fossil fuels because of the current energy paradigm.
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The global drop in carbon emissions, which occurred amid the 2020 pre-vaccine pandemic, was largely due to a decrease in oil and coal burning. For example, the U.S. saw a drop in motor gasoline consumption of 14 percent. It is now rising again, but it may remain somewhat lower as more people continue to work from home. During the pandemic in China and India, coal consumption fell sharply, but it has since rebounded.
Jackson noted that while we experienced big drops, Jackson is now experiencing big increases.
"We saw huge drops, but now we are seeing large increases."
These new reports contain a bit of optimism amid the challenges ahead. They show that clean energy can still be a major factor in national economies' growth. Researchers found that 23 countries saw their CO2 emissions "significantly decrease" while their economies grew over the 10 years prior to the pandemic. These include Japan, the U.S., Germany and Germany.
Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas. Credit: NASA
The U.S., together with India, China, and the European Union, has been the largest emitter of heat-trapping carbon since the time humans began to use fossil fuels for energy (around 1850). COP26 aims to get the four major carbon emitters to reduce their carbon emissions by committing to substantial reductions in the coming year.
Global carbon emissions must fall to zero in order to stabilize the climate, ideally at 2 C or less. Because the existing CO2 in the atmosphere ("the "bank account") does not disappear quickly. It takes years for the earth and oceans to absorb this powerful greenhouse gas.
Jackson stated, "The problem with it is that it stays there for centuries."
