Although we are only two weeks into fantasy basketball season, it is already easy to spot some draft-day hits or misses.
Our fantasy experts, Eric Karabell and Andre Snelllings, Eric Moody Jim McCormick, Jim McCormick, John Cregan, and Eric Moody all met together to discuss the things that stood out to them early on.
What are your biggest surprises in the first week of the season?
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Karabell: Charlotte's Miles Bridges must be the top. He was more than a flashy dunker. But to show that he can increase his long-term scoring average by at least two points is impressive. Bridges is making many 3-pointers, but his overall field goal percentage remains the same as last season. We didn't expect this. The Hornets probably didn't expect it, so don't feel bad. Bridges might settle at 20.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, but with the steals and 3-pointers, this fantasy team is among the top-20. I doubt anyone expected that.
McCormick - It has to be Miles Bridges or Cole Anthony. Bridges currently ranks second on the Player Rater, and has made a surprising leap to become a statistical star for Charlotte. Bridges is a great scorer and has a good defensive rate. He also rebounded relentlessly every night. Anthony, on the other hand, is a popular scorer for the Magic. He's also one of the most skilled rebounding guards in this league. Although I didn't draft either of these players this season, there are certain elements in both their production profiles that indicate their respective leaps. These are obvious enough, but what about Kyle Kuzma becoming an evening double-doubler for the Wizards? Kuzma's rebounding potential and the nature of the roster suggest that he could be a great source of rebounds. We all remember Dennis Rodman whenever we hear Kuzma’s name.
Cole Anthony, a second-year guard, has elevated his game this season. Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images
Moody: When you consider Al Horford's youth and his age, the per-game averages of 30.3MPG, 13.0PPG, 10.5RPG, 3.0APG, 1.3SPG and 3.8BPG are remarkable. Robert Williams III, Horford's third cousin, has also excelled on the court. The 35-year-old Horford is currently a top-20 player for category formats. He's also a great value considering his average draft position of 110.6.
Cregan: I have a few pleasant surprises to share with you: Horford Harrison Barnes, CJ McCCollum. However, I was pleasantly surprised by Ja Morant's sudden jump from being a top-40 player to the top-10 in both the Points and Roto formats. It's not a mirage when a player arrives fully like Morant. Morant's boost doesn't usually come from a few hot games. It's broad-based and includes volume, efficiency as well as minutes and usage.
Snellings - The two biggest surprises so far for me have been Al Horford (and Miles Bridges). Both players were expected to improve this season. However, they currently rank 13th-14th in fantasy points per match. Bridges is an elite athlete who has merged his athleticism with skill and risen the ranks. Horford was a top-50 producer during his previous stint with the Celtics, but he struggled with fit with the 76ers, and was not suited to be a veteran player on the rebuilding Thunder. He returned to the Celtics, and he was able to play himself into the starting lineup. I thought that he might be a lesser version of the man he had been. Top-50 would be his best scenario. I had never seen top-15 as being on the table.
What would you do differently if you had the chance to revise your draft?
McCormick - I would have been more open for Derrick White to be my pick. White's opportunity rates are now strong in San Antonio. Perhaps my confirmation bias from overdrafting him last year got in the way of this very attractive role on a thin Spurs roster. White's block rate is so high and he has real equity as a player in the San Antonio offense. This will make it almost certain that White will outperform or deliver on his draft price. If this is not the case, then I wish that I had seen Scottie Barnes' preseason. He was dynamic in creating opportunities for himself and others and that has all translated into the actual season.
Cregan: I would draft Josh Giddey into every league instead of only two. Oklahoma City is the place to be for fantasy opportunities. A steady diet of minutes is all that is required for a player to climb up the fantasy radar, except Shai Gilgeous Alexander. Giddey was an endgame pick every time I could. But I should have started targeting him in round 10. Oh, and I would have intensified the Michael Porter Jr. hype.
Karabell: I don't think you mean to draft Miles Bridges before Round 5. Although I avoid rookies in drafts, it seems that Evan Mobley from Cleveland is mature enough to continue helping fantasy managers in big-man categories while also shooting well and adding steals. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley can live together, although there may be some off-nights. Houston's JalenGreen is still a promising rookie. However, his first season may see him exceeding everyone's field goal percentage, which could be a problem.
Evan Mobley was everything fantasy managers and the Cavs hoped for... and more. Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
Snellings - I would trust my intuition that the best value was in the frontcourt, and not the backcourt. I believed that frontcourt players were more in demand this season than pure guards. Therefore, when in doubt one should be leaning towards the frontcourt. Reality has been even worse. It could be because of rule changes regarding fouls, but dominant perimeter volume scorers have been getting off to slower starts. You can see the position eligibility of the most successful fantasy players so far:
Top-5 fantasy scorers on an FP/G basis are either forward or centre eligible.
Nineteen of the top-11
15 of the top 21
Although I still believe that players like James Harden and Luka Doncic will eventually reach their level, I would be more comfortable if Jimmy Butler or Paul George were playing.
Moody: Jimmy Butler would be a player that I would pursue. To date, his court play has been exceptional. Given his absence of 20 games last year, I was concerned that Butler's support cast would not be good for him fantasy value and his age (32). He has averaged 34.3MPG, 25.3PPG, 0.75 3PM, and 7.0 RPG.
What was your preseason best hunch? It seems like everything is going exactly as you had hoped.
Moody: I was not hesitant to pick Anthony Davis (20.1) at his ADP. He played just 36 games last season and was 28th on a per game basis. This caused him to burn many fantasy managers. A short turnaround was not ideal for a player such as Davis. Davis has been performing well and contributing in many statistical categories as he has always done.
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Cregan: This is all very health-dependent. However, the longview of Jimmy Butler's second round seems to be working out well so far. I chose Butler, ignoring the historical injury red flags, for two reasons. His underrated late-career efficiency spike (PER since 2018-19, 19.8, 23.6 and 26.5, respectively, 30.3), and my anecdotal suspicion that this is an all-in season for the Heat. Although I don't like playing with top-20 picks, the Heat's actions heading into this campaign seemed to be a go for it mindset. Players who are reckless with their play can cause more injury than others. They tend to be more patient in these situations. So I have Butler set to play 70-72 games. This would give him an early-second-round advantage.
Snellings: Dejounte would fill the offensive void created by LaMarcus Aldridge's late-season departure and the offseason trade for DeMar DeRozan and propel himself up to the top-20 fantasy producers of the league. See Murray's actual stats and what I predicted for him last season.
Last season: 15.7 PPG (7.1 RPG), 5.4 APG and 0.9 3PG
Projections: 18.8 PPG and 7.6 RPG; 6.1 APG, and 1.2 3PG
This season: 17.6 PPG and 7.6 RPG. 8.4 APG, 1.43 3PG.
Although I have slightly underestimated his scoring increase, at the expense his actual distribution improvement, the overall package has been quite consistent with my expectations. Murray has been able to produce top-2 round value.
McCormick - Keeping with Toronto, it's the rise of OG Anunoby to be a valuable 3-and-3 contributor. Anunoby is now a Raptors wing scorer and has a high rebounding and defensive stature to compliment his fantasy profile. It was my hope that Anunoby would finally live up to the fantasy nerd hype. This season is shaping up to be the season where his talent and production meet.
Everything could be coming together for OG Anunoby. AP Photo/Frank Franklin (2)
Karabell: Even with the addition of Kemba Walker, Knicks' star Julius Randle would keep racking up the assists. Let's be honest: Walker seems healthy, hitting lots of 3-pointers, and has been active defensively with steals. But this offense still runs through Randle. Walker is the only Knick to average even four assists per games. Randle shouldn't have been selected at any draft-day discount.
