Liverpool looks every bit the Premier League's best team right now. This is not due to Salah's form or a healthy defense. Nick Taylor/Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images
Every major publication, including this one, ran pieces about Monday's match, which took place the day after Liverpool's 5-0 defeat of Manchester United at Old Trafford. One reason stood out in a piece published by The Independent was however. Miguel Delaney, a member of The Independent, noted that there was a need to "cultural reset" at the club. "Key decision-makers at club will willingly admit they don't want to follow the Manchester City or Liverpool path of having a specific style of coach because it means you can’t be adaptable."
Imagine Liverpool-United playing on Sunday. Liverpool was able to cut through the most inept, unorganized high press of this season. Imagine Mohamed Salah scoring the easiest hat trick of his life, and his team ripping through United in just 48 minutes. They pounce on their mistakes, and they romp to five goals in 48 minutes. It seems that United never had to shift beyond fourth gear. Imagine looking at all this and thinking, "Meh! Too inflexible." It's a mind-boggling sight.
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It doesn't matter if Liverpool is an "adaptable" team at the moment, but one thing is certain: They are playing really, really well. They are pressing the ball more than ever before, they attack with a bit less intensity and verticality, while Salah, long a great player, is producing at an extraordinary rate.
Liverpool, like many other clubs, would love to forget about the 2020-21 season. Reds pulled off an amazing rescue job in the final stages of the season. They took 26 points from their 10 last matches to reach a top four finish and a Champions League bid. This seemed impossible as late March. However, everything that led them to this unlikely place -- more centre-back injuries and more midfield injuries in the middle of the season, early-season COVID-19 diagnosis, six losses in seven matches in 2021 -- was a source for frustration that made Liverpool an extremely difficult team to predict for this summer.
They didn't make any offseason moves either. They primarily trusted that players such as Joel Matip, Virgil Van Dijk and Jordan Henderson would return from injury. The entire transfer budget was spent on a young centreback (Ibrahima Konate), who has barely played so far. No midfielders were brought in to replace the departed Georginio Wijaldum (PSG), and Xherdan Shaqiri(Lyon).
If you pretend that 2020-21 doesn't exist, the results will make more sense.
Liverpool 2018-19 (Premier League Only): 2.55 Points per Game, 2.3 Goals Per Game, 0.6 Goals Allowable, +1.2 xG differential/Game
Liverpool in 2019-20: 2.61 ppg, 2.2 goals; 0.9 allowed, +0.9xGD
Liverpool 2021-22: 2.33 PPG and 3.0 goals; 0.7 allowed, +1.8xGD
It seems like a team with high levels of continuity that continues to grow and finds higher levels of play.
Liverpool has the highest xGD in the Premier League. They rank first in goals scored and xG, and third in goals and xG permitted. They are one point behind Chelsea in first place. You could also say that they're lucky to be there. In August, Liverpool outshot Chelsea 24-6 (xG: Liverpool 3.4, Chelsea 0.7), and they generated more xG value in a 2-2 draw in October.
Although Liverpool still have some injuries, only one Liverpool midfielder (Henderson), has been able to play more than 65% in all competitions this season. Six others are between 23% and 65%. But it hasn’t affected their performance in the least. They are unbeaten in league play and have all but qualified to the Champions League knockout stages. They have not lost a competitive match since 1-0 to Fulham in Mar. 7.
How did they do it? Is this the best they have done under Jurgen Klopp's guidance?
As expected, defense has improved.
In fact, the 2020-21 season actually existed. The Champions League trophy is a proof that Chelsea exists. Liverpool lost to Fulham and a few other teams, but ended up in eighth place in Premier League mid-March.
The Reds were unable to maintain their organization in transition defense, as you would expect given the team's recent losses to Matip, Van Dijk and Gomez. They allowed 0.90 shots per possession, which was second in the Premier League. However, they also allowed 0.15xG per shot -- the worst in the Premier League. This is ahead of Spezia in Italy and Hoffenheim in Germany.
These transition issues were partly responsible for their decline in close-games. They went from scoring an unsustainable 2.50 points per match in 2019-20 to 1.43 each in 2020-21. In January, they saw their 68-match Premier League streak of unbeaten matches come to an abrupt halt at Burnley. They then lost five of their next five league matches at the home.
play 1:22 Was Man United’s 5-0 defeat the last straw for Solskjaer's? Steve Nicol discusses the possibility of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer being fired following Man United's 5-0 loss to Liverpool.
The defense has performed as expected, with Van Dijk and Matip both healthy and recording the majority of the minutes. Liverpool is second in shots allowed per possession to City (0.11) but are back at ninth in xG per shot (0.11) -- a good place for a heavy-possession group to be. The 2018-19 Liverpool team won the Champions League, finished second in the Premier League, and allowed 0.08 shots per possession. They also allowed 0.11 xG per shoot. This resulted in an average of 0.6 goals per match for the entire season.
We knew Van Dijk was a good player and now we have solid statistical evidence to support that. We also know what can happen when centre-backs are shuffled almost match to match due to injury.
More directness in attack
Another interesting statistic is that Liverpool has been more aggressive on the offensive side. They average 0.22 shots per possession, a huge increase from the 0.15 to 0.16 averages for the previous three seasons. This adds up roughly six more shots per match. Their average shot is 0.14 xG, which is slightly more than the 2018-19 team.
Liverpool have 47% of their possessions ending in the attacking third. They average 25.4 meters per possession, 26.3 seconds per possession -- the highest averages over the past four seasons. This isn't an idle possession. Their speed* is 1.41 (highest in these four seasons), 31% have been forward (highest), 54% of long-ball passes are completed (highest). Liverpool has created dangerous opportunities by combining this defense with an aggressive defense -- 9.7 defensive actions allowed (second in Premier League), 9.8 possessions per match started in the attacking third (second), and 9.8 defensive actions per game (second).
*StatsPerform defines "direct speed" as the distance the ball travels when measured directly up-field, divided by the time it takes to complete a sequence. It measures directness. It is a measure of directness. The counter-attacking Burnley has a speed of 1.87 while the patient Brighton has a speed of 0.97. Liverpool is just in the middle.
This is a very aggressive attack. Andy Robertson, left-back, has increased his chances of creating 1.68 opportunities (assists + key passes that lead to shots) per 90 minutes across all competitions to 0.15 and 2.13 respectively. Trent Alexander-Arnold, right-back, has found a higher creation rate. He is now averaging 0.21 assists per 90 minutes and 2.23 chances in all competitions, compared to last season's 0.21 assists. Trent Alexander-Arnold has a higher creation rate at 0.35 and 3.23.
Alexander-Arnold, despite only playing in seven matches in Liverpool's Premier League so far, is currently second in the league with 25 opportunities -- ahead of Salah (22) or City's Jack Grealish (21) respectively and behind only Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes (34)
Alexander-Arnold's ability to pass has improved in all areas of attack.
Source: StatsPerform and TruMedia
Alexander-Arnold has a higher pass volume than last season. He's more involved up the pitch and less in the areas that full-backs patrol, partly because that's usually where the ball is -- Liverpool is doing well at pining opponents in their halves. He's also the most popular dance partner in the world.
Super Mo
In this sport, we cannot talk about the past tense. Everything must be linked to a future event. Paul Pogba is not "Paul Pogba", but "Paul Pogba", whose contract will expire next summer .
The issue that Salah has attached to his name is an expiring contract. Although it won't expire until 2023 (although the issue is attached to Salah's name), Liverpool's future looks bright considering that Liverpool's current squad is still young and falling behind its theoretical peak. Henderson, Van Dijk and forward Roberto Firmino are all 31 while Salah, Sadio Mane, and Matip are all 29. Salah, who is perhaps the most valuable player in the world, will be the club's first priority.
It is likely that Salah will get what he wants from the club, or at least some of it. The club will most likely let key players' contracts expire as they are unable to keep everyone in their 30s. It is true that there are very few wide forwards who can play at an elite level well into their 30s. However, the number of players who can do what Salah does on the pitch is much smaller. It's Salah.
Salah has been unstoppable and incandescent in 2021-22. Although he will naturally cool down, his form has been a key factor in the Reds' remarkable start to the season. Getty
Salah has participated in all nine Premier League matches of Liverpool and scored in eight. He has scored in all three Champions League matches. He's had 15 goals and 27 chances in all competitions. He's on an Allen Iverson-like streak of crossing over defenders and sending them down to the ground.
This goal would have been the most important goal for any player on the planet. However, it was not Salah's best goal in October. This was.
Salah's hat trick against Manchester United was, however, a breeze. He's on an unmatchable run that perhaps no player can sustain for the entire season.
What happens when Salah (and Liverpool!) cool down?
Despite Chelsea's one point lead, Liverpool is still the top team in England. Salah's form is likely to become less remarkable over time. The Reds' average of 0.56 goals per match in Premier League (shared with Arsenal and Chelsea), will almost certainly fall over time.
They are almost certain to be running too hot, but if they can maintain that form for another 4 or 5 matches, they will have set themselves up to win the Premier League or Champions League.
Next five matches for Liverpool:
vs. Brighton (30 Oct.)
vs. Atletico Madrid (Nov. 3)
at West Ham United (Nov. 7)
Arsenal vs. Arsenal (Nov. 20, 2018)
vs. Porto (No. 24)
West Ham and Brighton are currently fifth and fourth in Premier League, respectively, going into Saturday. Arsenal is hot, Atletico, Porto and Atletico are two other Champions League Group A teams that are poised for promotion to the knockout stages. They'll be well prepared for the next round if they can get through this set of matches without dropping too many points.
They can allow themselves to relax a bit on the offensive and still score points. However, if the goals are lowered a bit, then we might see other problems.
Midfield depth could be the major problem. Their chemistry is impressive given the amount of match to match rotation in midfield. However, at some point the absence of go-to options for big matches could cause problems. Although Henderson is in good health and performing well, he's only 31. James Milner, who is 35, has been used for more than 500 minutes at midfield and full-back. Fabinho was plagued by injuries last season. Harvey Elliott and Thiago are both out with injury. Elliott's will probably keep him in the game until 2022. Although it hasn't backfired so far, they are only one or two injuries away from a problem.
Liverpool is still playing mostly within themselves, Salah's current transcendence aside. While the Reds haven't made the costly acquisitions Chelsea and City made in recent transfer windows. However, they still have the core team of a previous Premier League and Champions League champion and are playing like a team that wants to contend. They never stopped competing in a world where 2020-21 was not possible.
