It is a pleasure to return to normal NHL schedule. We also pick up Alex Ovechkins' quest for 895 goals, which is perhaps one of the greatest records in North American sports. Ovechkins seems to understand the urgency of his goal, scoring five goals in five games this season. If you're Ovechkin, however, you will probably see that the time you have left is precious.
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To be clear, Ovechkin does not need to score 895 goals in order to be the greatest ever scorer. He is already the greatest scorer of all time. It is easy to see how the game has changed. Gretzky was a player in an era where teams averaged almost four goals per match. Ovechkin spent his entire career playing in an environment that saw teams score just three or less goals per game. Ovechkin's league scoring average was 2.86 goals per match per team throughout his entire career. Ovie has averaged 0.61 goals per match, which is 21 percent of his team's goals per match. He would be scoring 0.77 goals per match if he had that in 1987. He would have scored 925 goals if that was his average. This is again, the greatest scorer ever.
However, there are those who won't bestow this label on him until he has the title of most goals, and Ovechkin is considered handicapped. Ovechkin has lost half of his season to labor strife. COVID stops cost him another 50 games. Ovechkin missed 166 games due to COVID stoppages. This, at Ovechkin's rate of scoring, cost him between 100 and 101 goals. Add in the games Ovechkin missed because of injury and that could be 90-95 goals. These numbers would place him at around 830 right now, and he is looking to break Gretzkys mark next season.
We can't complain about the lockouts. So now we need to ask: Can Ovie score 160 more goals before he retires? Ovechkin doesn't seem to be able to play until he is 40, so it seems obvious that he will.
There are both positives and negatives to be aware of if you're looking for signs in this season.
Ovechkins' greatest skill was the number of goals he scored throughout his career. He has averaged 4.77 shots per match, which is second only to Phil Esposito among all the league's greats. Ovechkin isn't a goalie, like Esposito. Ovie does manage to get the ball in the net, but his game consists mainly of mid-range jumpers.
He doesn't get as many shots this year. Although he only had 20 shots, he managed to bury 20 percent. He won't be able to keep up with his 12 percent career shooting percentage and 15 season-lows.
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On the plus side, Ovechkins individual expected goals per game so far is the highest its been in five seasons, as is his individual scoring chance per game, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. Ovechkins may have fewer shots but is getting more from better places than usual. According to IcyData.com Ovie has reduced his shots beyond the circles by half and focuses on getting opportunities from below the rings, which is the best place to be.
Ovechkin's catch of Gretzky at 894 is a record in sports. Ovie has never collected 92 or86 homers in a season as Gretz, given the time period he plays in. Barry Bonds could still collect homers at an even higher rate than Hank Aaron for whatever reason and how you feel about them. This is Ovechkin being metronomically outstanding for 20 years in a harder scoring era. Bonds, on the other hand, is one of the most important players ever.
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Ovechkin, however, is only 36. He will need four more seasons to score at his normal rate. It will be a problem if his shots are trending down and not just a five game drop. Can he get to the middle of ice as often as he used to, and can he still score on the rush? We won't know until a while.
The NHL should be pushing this chase already, but I'm overdoing it on logic.
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Next are the Senators and Wings. Hull could be gone by the weekend.
