Chris Fallica breaks down numbers that show this college football season is one of the most unpredictable since 2007. (1:53).
Let's discuss the College Football Playoff combination.
The playoff picture is starting to become more clear. There are four playoff teams that have a high chance of happening. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the most likely combination of four teams selected by the playoff committee has a 1 in 10 chance of being successful. Seven combinations have a chance of winning with a minimum of 1%.
Let's take a look at them. How likely are these four-team playoff combos? And how do they end up being the final one chosen on selection day? These combinations can be used regardless of the seeding order. Below is a list of teams in alphabetical order.
1. Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Oklahoma
Chance of it happening: 10%
Wow! What a difference a year has made for Cincinnati. The model was extremely skeptical about the Bearcats' chances of reaching the playoffs, and gave them less than 1% chance. The model is not to be blamed. It was clear that even an undefeated group of five team would have difficulty breaking into the top four. Although we haven't yet seen the rankings from the committee this year, it seems different this year. Editor's Picks Kenny Pickett's rise and a surprising matchup in the Big 12 are just a few of the highlights from Week 8.
Dave Wilson is familiar with Spencer Rattler's awkward QB situation at Oklahoma.
The best of Drake London at USC is yet to come Paolo Uggetti 2. Related
According to the Football Power Index, Cincinnati is the sixth best team in the country and has a 54% chance of winning out. This is better than any undefeated team. The Bearcats will be ranked fourth in strength-of-record if they do that -- that's the big deal. Although the AP poll doesn't represent the committee, Cincinnati is already gaining significant respect from these voters. They have the Bearcats at Number. 2.
How does this group get in? It is obvious that Alabama, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati win. Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC championship match. There was also a two-loss Big Ten champion.
The predictor believes that Ohio State will lose one game to Cincinnati, but the outcome is twice as likely. If Michigan loses to the Big Ten champion, it would be a very difficult picture between five teams competing for four spots.
Let's not forget the SEC. Could this happen if Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship? It would require some chaos, but it seems possible.
2. Cincinnati, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma
Chance of it happening: 7%
After the first combination, it is quite simple to follow. Oklahoma and Cincinnati win, and this time Georgia wins SEC. Michigan also wins.
Is Oklahoma or Michigan able to get in even if they lose? It's very likely that yes. It's possible, but it is not certain.
Georgia is in seven of the most likely College Football Playoff scenarios. Brett Davis/Getty Images
3. Cincinnati, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma
Chance of it happening: 7%
Similar to combination No. 2 with Ohio State substituting for Michigan. However, the Buckeyes are already in a losing streak and can't afford another loss. This is almost as likely to happen as the Michigan version, which is undefeated. However, Ohio State is slightly ahead in the Big House game.
4. Alabama, Georgia and Michigan. Oklahoma
Chance of it happening: 6%
We've discussed similar circumstances in this case. However, one thing happened. Or both.
1. Cincinnati lost or...
2. The Committee of 5 is disregarded by the committee with great determination
Both could happen.
5. Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Ohio State
Chance of it happening: 6%
This is what happens when Oklahoma goes out of business.
Is it possible for four players to be selected if they lose two Sooners? It's possible, but not certain.
In the eyes of the predictor, a one-loss champion Ohio State is ahead of an Oklahoma. One-loss Oklahoma would likely be facing undefeated Cincinnati or a non-champion one-loss Georgia. This is where things get murky. This is a scenario that the predictor cannot make a call on because it's too unlikely.
6. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma
Chance of it happening: 6%
See also: combination No. 4 replaces Michigan with Ohio State
7. Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Michigan
Chance of it happening: 5%
See also: combination No. 5 replaces Ohio State with Michigan
The seventh most likely scenario is the most unlikely. After that, there's a big drop-off. Every other combination has less then 2% chance of happening. These all look like the same teams, but they've been reshuffled around. These teams are also present in the ninth and eighth most likely combinations. Next team to join the mix? Pitt would be the next team to join the mix. We have previously covered the reasons why the Panthers are long-shot contenders for the playoffs. Pitt is the 10th most likely playoff pairing as they face Clemson in a big game.
