Florida's beleaguered Democrats were able to see the potential of a cash-rich Senate nominee who drew the attention of Democrats all across the country. Her fundraising success provided an unexpected boost of hope. However, the problem is that there are many Democratic candidates who have used their national online donors to make money overseas to hide their weaknesses back home.
Demings had no choice but to move out of Florida in order to raise the record amount. Bully Pulpit Interactive, a leading Democratic digital company, found that she spent almost 80 percent of her digital funds targeting donors, especially older women and those in their middle age. The analysis shows that Demings spent $2.8 million more on Facebook ads than any other candidate since she entered the Senate race in June. She was the 8th highest advertiser overall on the platform thanks to her spending.
Demings all in-on-Facebook campaign paid out a huge payout that surprised both Rubio and Republicans. National Democrats were also reassured by the payout from Demings all-in-on-Facebook campaign, which showed that even though the state has become a more reddish swing state in recent years, it can still attract the money needed to win the election.
According to Ben LaBolt (founder of BPI), Demings small-donor strategy saw her average contribution of $28.45. This could be enough to entice top donors and institutional fundraisers back.
LaBolt stated that it is a very impressive top line number and that many donors have responded to her message and biography, making this race a premier one, perhaps even more than expected.
To raise money, it takes money. Demings spent $5.6 million to build her donor base. Rubio had a 44% burn rate, while Demings spent 66% of the money she raised in the last quarter. Rubio started October 1st with $9.6 million in cash and Demings $6million.
Although the idea of a small-dollar, grassroots-driven campaign is new to Florida Democrats. South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison was the one to fuel the movement. He raised more than $100m in 2020, but lost to Lindsey Graham, the incumbent GOP senator.
Harrison took on a Republican he hated and was disowned by Democrats. He was able to nationalize his race by encouraging fund-raging by liberals. His charisma and his historic candidacy as a Black Democrat trying to unify the Deep South Republican made him a formidable fundraiser. He is now the Democratic National Committee chair and is currently advising Demings.
It is difficult to miss the similarities between their campaigns. Demings, a dynamic speaker such as Harrison, is tapping into Democratic animosity towards Rubio. Her biography is a favorite with the party base. She was born in Jacksonville, Fla., and became the first African American woman to be elected chief of police in Orlando.
Zack Carroll was the Demings campaign manger and Harrison served the same function. Joshua Karp was one of her most trusted strategic advisors. He advised Harrison and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff during his Facebook-fueled win over incumbent David Perdue.
Karp stated that this is the new winning model in Senate campaigns. It has won from Georgia to Arizona and is being applied to Florida for the first time.
Karp stated that campaigns' heavy spending on Facebook and Google, email, and conventional mail are a front-loaded expense to cultivate small donors. They will give more as the campaign communicates with them less often in the future.
The Demings operation should look like Democratic Senator Raphael Warnocks of Georgia. He raised $9.5 million more than any other candidate, but only spent $2.8million. Demings' and Warnock's fundraising success have fueled the Democratic Party's desire for strong Black candidates during the post-George Floyd era of racial justice.
The unrest following Floyd's murder in 2013 was a turning point for Demings. Her unique background as a Black woman, former cop, made her a prominent voice in cable news and a party leader for criminal justice reforms. This was partly because she refused to embrace the Defund the Police movement, which many Democrats feel will severely damage their 2020 electoral prospects. She was also a House impeachment director against Donald Trump earlier in the year. This helped her rise to the Joe Bidens shortlist as vice president.
Demings was able to clear the field of Stephanie Murphy, her most serious Democratic opponent, when she declared her Senate candidacy. Demings was not able to maintain a high profile and was, according to some activists, absent from the campaign trail. The Florida critics of Demings' fundraising success were silenced by the state, where retail politics is second to television advertising. Candidates sometimes have to spend up to $2 million per week on ads in the final days.
Val has a great opportunity to lead the party. You can see her success fundraising, but you also hear that activists, electeds, and small donors want to meet her in their local communities. Although she has a lot to do, political outreach is something that can be done with a minimum of effort, according to Dan Newman, a leading Democratic strategist in Florida.
She is not in any predicament. He said that they just want to see her more and noted that Democrats are all excited about her candidacy.
There is no one in the party who doesn't see the problems Rubio faces.
For years, Democrats have been out-organized by Republicans on the ground and have failed to carry out serious and sustained voter registration drives like the ones that were key to Barack Obama's back-to-back wins in 2008 and 2012. This was evident in the results of the 2020 election. Trump won the state with a larger margin than Obama's 2008 win. It was due to Trump's disproportionate support from white voters, and a higher share of the Latino vote.
Rubio, a bilingual Cuban American, is a formidable opponent for Democrats. Rubio hails from Miami-Dade which is the state's most populous county. There, Democrats often need to build large margins to offset losses elsewhere. Rubio, despite being outspent by Demings via Facebook, has made sure to post there in Spanish. Demings has not.
Rubio's Facebook ads paint Demings in a negative light. They emphasize her role in Trumps impeachment, and link her to Biden who is relatively ineligible in Florida. Demings is less well-known than Rubio but has repeatedly called on Democrats to protect Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease specialist.
However, Florida is becoming more Republican and Demings could find herself in a political Catch-22. Her message to Democrats nationally may not align with the messages that voters want to hear back at home.
Eric Wilson, a Republican digital strategist, stated that it is a smart strategy for investors to make early investments in Facebook email list-building. It is smart for raising money to leave the state. At a certain point, however, the problem isn't the money. It's possible to raise money in the national capital with a message from home that is not true.
