When confronted with the Fermi Paradox, one of the most difficult questions to answer is why exponentially scaling technology hasn't overtaken the Universe yet.
The idea of an extraterrestrial robot swarm self-replicating from a swarm is commonly known as von Neumann probes. It has been a common theme in science fiction for decades. However, evidence has not been found to support their existence beyond fiction.
This could be because we haven’t spent much time searching for them. But that could change with the Five-hundred Meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope, (FAST).
Recent calculations suggest that the new observational platform could detect von Neumann probes in swarms far from the Sun.
These calculations were performed by Dr. Zaza Oza Osmanov of Georgia's Free University of Tbilisi.
Dr. Osmanov used two frameworks in order to help him find the solution. The first framework was the idea Kardashev civilizations. The other is an estimate of the thermal, electromagnetic and emission profiles of any such swarm.
The Kardashev Scale is a well-understood concept within science speculation. It focuses on the civilization's total energy use. Different milestones (Type I to Type II or Type III) correspond with the energy output of a star, planet, or galaxy. Human civilization currently stands at a.75 on Kardashev scale.
Given the limited time that humans have spent on this planet, it is likely that if there is life elsewhere in the galaxy, then it will have taken longer to develop and evolve technologically. A higher probability that a civilization will reach K-II (star or galaxy energy) level of technological development leads to a longer time frame.
If a civilization is able to spend so much time working on new technologies, it will most likely have created self-replicating machines like the von Neumann probe as part of its technological development process.
It is nearly impossible to get the technological cat back in its bag once it is gone. They would be able to reproduce themselves in any civilization that releases them onto the galaxy.
Dr. Osmanov believes that we would be able at least to see the path of destruction. As with all imperfect systems, self-replicating machines will emit radiation. Dr. Osmanov calculated that this radiation should be visible in radio spectrum.
It would be right in the middle spectrum of what FAST is meant to pick up.
(FAST)
While knowing that it is possible to detect a swarm of insects is helpful, it is far more helpful to know how far it can be detected. As with potentially dangerous asteroids and other threats, it is important to be aware of imminent doom as soon as possible.
Dr. Osmanov used some simplified assumptions to help calculate distances. He also assumed that the civilization's Kardashev level would give the highest power output. A Type II civilization would not have a von Neumann cluster emitting light that is greater than their energy utilization level as measured by the scale.
These additional assumptions lead Dr. Osmanov to conclude that FAST could detect self-replicating robots swarms for Type II and Type III civilisations.
FAST's instrumentation should be sensitive enough to locate any such swarms within 16,000 light years for Type II civilizations. This means that any Type II probes will be visible within the nearest 15 percent of our Milky Way.
A Type III civilization could create a swarm that would be visible within a bubble of 400 million light years, which encompasses most "nearby", galaxies.
(Indif/Wikimedia commons/CC BY–SA 3.0
Above: A graphic representation of the Kardashev Scale, and its associated power consumption levels.
The paper by Dr. Osmanov has been published only on arXiv. It does not appear that it was accepted by any academic journals, so these calculations are not peer-reviewed. They are still a fun experiment and may be used as a detection tool for black swan-like events.
It might be comforting to know we could see FAST's encroaching danger well before it threatened Earth. But, it begs the question: what happens if there is none? What does this mean for the future of self-replicating technology and our place in the Universe?
Matt Williams has written the Beyond the Fermi Paradox series at UT. It is a fascinating look at some of the most important questions.
It could even entertain a crowd of self-replicating robotics.
Universe Today originally published this article. You can read the original article.
