Millions Of EU Citizens Applied To Stay In The U.K. After Brexit But Doubt Remains For Millions More

The U.K. government has said nearly 2 million EU citizens living in the U.K. have applied to the controversial EU settlement scheme.

The scheme was brought in at the beginning of 2019, several years after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, which put the residency status of around 3 million EU citizens living in Britain in question (the latest numbers from Oxford's Migration Observatory put the EU-born population in the U.K. as 3.6 million in 2018).

From the beginning the scheme has been criticized as cumbersome and off-putting. Part of the application requires users submit documents, which they can do only by using an Android phone (that is to say, iPhone not supported) or by travelling to one of only 13 regional processing centres in the entire country.

On top of that, the difficulty finding or verifying relevant paperwork, sometimes for people who have been in Britain for decades, has led to fears people will be wrongly rejected from the scheme. This is particularly worrying to some in the light of the disastrous Windrush scandal.

With these latest numbers, the government is trying to reassure people the scheme is working.

"EU citizens have made a huge contribution to this country and will play a key role in cementing Britain's status as an outward-looking, global leader after Brexit," said Home Secretary Priti Patel in a statement. "That is why I am thrilled that we have had 2 million applications to the EU Settlement Scheme so that EU citizens can secure their immigration status under U.K. law."

The number of applications, and the astonishingly high rate of approval (the government claims only two applications have been outright rejected) obscures the difficult position many EU citizens will still face in their bid to stay in the U.K.

According to the government's statistics 373,600 applications were processed and concluded in September. Of these, 57% were granted 'settled' status, meaning they should be free to stay in the country, while 43% received only 'pre-settled' status. This second status is a far more tenuous position to be in. In theory it gives the EU citizen five years to get the necessary paperwork to prove their right to stay in the country, but offers no guarantees.

"EU nationals who have acquired pre-settled status will still need to reapply under the EU settlement scheme to convert their pre-settled status into 'settled status'", says Ahmed Ajina, partner at the law firm Seddons. "This means that EU nationals who have only been granted 'pre-settled status' remain in a perilous position until they have lived in the U.K. for a continuous period of five years and may risk their right to reside in the U.K. altogether if they are unable to achieve this."

And some are still worried about all the people who haven't had their applications processed, or indeed have not yet applied. This is a concern in particular with vulnerable groups such as the elderly, who may be incapable of applying for themselves, or unaware of their need to do so.

Claire Nilson, Leading Immigration Counsel at Faegre Baker Daniels, says that while some million and a half EU citizens have had their applications concluded "this still leaves more than half of the EU citizens resident in the U.K. without confirmation currently as to their post-Brexit status. For those without confirmation of their status, there could be challenges with international travel and returning to the U.K. after October 31st especially if we leave with a no-deal Brexit."

Nonetheless, Nilson notes a change in tone from the government on EU citizens' rights. She says this announcement, and the small amount of rejections, "demonstrates that the Home Office is looking for reasons to accept applications rather than reject them. Presumably these early applications were mostly straightforward cases but, nonetheless, these statistics indicate a change in emphasis by the authorities towards leniency (at least at the present time) when compared with other types of applications which, under the hostile immigration environment, have been denied at a higher rate across the board."

Home Secretary Patel, who is responsible for immigration in the U.K., has indeed received criticism in the past few months for her stance on EU citizens' future in the country.

In August Patel said she would like to see free movement come to a complete end for EU citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit on the 31st of October. It was swiftly pointed out this was not possible.

More recently, Patel was grilled by BBC presenter Andrew Marr over a pledge made by herself and now-Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the run-up to the Brexit referendum.

The pledge promised EU citizens living in the U.K. would be given automatic permanent residency (indefinite leave to remain) after Brexit. Critics argue the EU settlement scheme, whatever its success, is a betrayal of this pledge.

Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, says she thinks its understandable applications are on the rise as Brexit looms: "Today's stats show a record number of people applying for the scheme in a single month, which is probably a response to ramped up no-deal rhetoric in August and September."

Sumption points out that while the numbers seem to indicate around half of EU citizens who need to apply have done so, "we have to be careful when trying to work out how close we're getting to the 'target' number of applications. The official estimates of EU nationals exclude some people, such as those living in care homes or hostels, and may undercount others. The truth is that we do not know exactly how many people are eligible to apply."