Sometimes I think back to a call with a friend in spring 2020. The cases were falling and the pundits were optimistic that all this would be over by mid-summer. My friend asked me if the last two months would seem from summer's perspective like a strange dream. What would we do with the spring memory three months later, when the bars are crowded and the mask factories shut down? My friend replied, "Who knows? It's hard to know." Then we discussed something else. The pandemic lasted another 18 months. Now, we're here, and it's still the pandemic. While things are infinitely more stable than they were one year ago, the truth is that subway riders still wear masks. When can we claim that this pandemic has ended? What metrics and what facts will help us determine when it is possible to return to normal? Giz Asks asked a variety of experts for their opinions.
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Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan
It is difficult to give a date because of the uncertainty. However, it is clear that there are still many miles to go. As much as I'd love to see COVID zero, I think we are headed towards endemic, possibly seasonal transmission. This is where most people have been vaccinated, or have some immunity from previous infections, so infections tend not to be as severe. It is important to continue with preventive strategies such as getting vaccinated and masking (and expanding global access to vaccines!) It is crucial to reduce transmission and strain on healthcare system, and to minimize the death toll and other severe consequences that could result from Covid-19 becoming an endemic. If the criteria are met, then the pandemic is considered over when there are no more cases, hospitalizations or deaths from Covid-19. It will likely vary by country. However, one could see something similar to what you would see with flu. In the US, there are an estimated 12,000-61,000 deaths each year. This compares to the 370,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020 and the 295,000 additional deaths in 2021). It is important to note that the time at which the pandemic ends will vary depending on where it occurs, how many vaccines are available, how social distancing works, and other mitigation strategies. This is because we still need to deal with the long-term effects of the pandemic, such as Long Covid, mental health issues, misinformation, mistrust, and economic aftereffects, even after it ends.
Although I would love to see COVID zero, I believe we are headed towards endemic, possibly seasonal transmission. This is where most people have been vaccinated, or have some immunity from previous infections, so infections tend not to be as severe.
George Washington University Emergency Physician and Public Health Professor. He is also the author of Lifelines, A Doctor's Journey in Fighting for Public Health
As a society, I don't think we have defined what the end of the pandemic would look like. It will be over when there is no more Covid-19. It will be over when there are no more hospitalizations that overwhelm our healthcare system. It will be over when there are fewer deaths than a certain amount. However, most people will agree that Covid-19, the most serious public health crisis in our history, is not an urgent problem. It is unlikely that we will ever reach this level of stability. It is unlikely that it will happen while children under the age of 5 are not eligible for the vaccine. Likewise, there are many people around the globe, even the most vulnerable, who don't have the vaccine. We will need to gain a better understanding of how this pandemic might affect our ability to make decisions. We are not yet at that point.
When there are no more Covid-19 cases, will it be over? It will be over when there are no more hospitalizations that overwhelm our healthcare system. It will be over when there are fewer deaths than a certain amount.
Senior Scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, whose expertise includes infectious diseases, critical care (ICU), and emergency medicine.
When most countries around the globe can treat Covid-19 as they do other respiratory viruses, this pandemic will end in a global context. SARS-CoV2 can spread quickly in animals and cause a variety of symptoms. It cannot be eradicated or stopped from spreading. Its ability to cause severe illness, hospitalization, death, and widespread spread is the goal. It is possible to prevent the most serious complications by giving vaccines to those who are at greatest risk. However, hospitalizations and cases will still be present. Although natural immunity is important, it is not the best way to fight the virus. A pandemic will eventually lead to an endemic state. The post-pandemic world in which Covid-19 is still available will have a lower level of severity.
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The pandemic will eventually turn to an endemic state, and the post-pandemic environment will still have Covid-19 but it will be in a more manageable form.
Professor and Chair in Epidemiology, UC Berkeley
It is difficult to know the future, partly due to unknown variants that could escape vaccine-induced immunity and partly because it is not clear when the world will have a greater number of vaccinated. The future looks bleak. SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the population, becoming more of an endemic disease/infection. There may be seasonal patterns similar to influenza. This scenario is unlikely to be repeated for 12-18 more months.
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This scenario is unlikely to be repeated for 12-18 more months.
George Washington University, School of Public Health, Dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health, Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health
It is not an easy task to produce enough vaccine and get it in everyone's hands while limiting the virus ability to evolve. It will take at least one year before the pandemic is over. That's a lot of optimism. It could take several years for the pandemic to end due to inequalities in vaccine production and resistance. It is quite humbling. Our knowledge of coronaviruses was not as extensive as it should be. It was impossible to predict the rate at which this would evolve. Nevertheless, our understanding of human behavior, like learning, was imperfect. We didn't anticipate the level of miscommunication and lack of scientific literacy we would face. Although most people know that certain vaccines contain mRNA, if you don't know enough about genetics and the science behind them that can make it more frightening than reassuring. What happens when people go off on tangentswell? Without understanding how genetics works? I understand that people may have these concerns, but it is leading to an enormous amount of vaccine hesitancy. This is a shame because science has shown that mRNA does not alter DNA. As a pediatrician, I knew it would be difficult to develop a vaccine for children. Because the virus is still being transmitted to children, it will continue to be a problem. Adults around the virus will also get the virus. This pandemic will end when we no longer see excessive deaths from Covid every day in the entire world. We know that the pandemic won't end as long as Covid continues to circulate in the world. However, we don't have to eradicate every case. We might end up with a situation in which immunity of the population or mutation or (more likely), both, the virus is more like the seasonal flu or the annual cold. In this case, we have to be vigilant and vaccinate everyone every year but no longer have very high mortality rates.
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It will likely take at least one year before the pandemic is over. That's a lot of optimism. It could take several years for the pandemic to end due to the inequalities in vaccine production and the high level of resistance seen to vaccination.
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